| Norion said: You say 40m is a stretch and 37-38m is a maybe but the scenario you presented has it reach the former. It'll be at a minimum 32m by the end of December doing about 5m for the year so that much next year would already put it at 37m reaching the maybe and then after the 2.5m and 1.5m it would've sold at least 41m even with drops that large after 2025. I do mostly agree with what you said about 50m though. I'd say it still has a decent shot of reaching that if the console lasts till the end of 2028 before getting replaced but I don't expect that so mid 40's is my expectation for it. |
"That much next year" is wishful thinking. There's no indication whatsoever that demand won't keep falling. Instead, the rational thing to do is thinking that the average ~35% YoY fall in sales will continue since it's been a thing for the last 2 years.
So if it finally does 5 million units in 2024. 5 * (1 - 0.35) = ~3.25 million next year.
