I put my latest bet on X|S lifetime sold-through at:

37 million units.

(What I personally claim to be the real range of sold-through units lifetime: 34.4-35.4 million units.)

In May '25, we saw 137k X|S units sold globally with again a steep decline year-on-year.

If this rate of decline in the ranges of -25 to -40% globally year-on-year) continues, then in 2026 X|S will hardly reach 100k-200k units sold globally in probably 10 out of 12 months, with the exception being November and December, in which it could still sit at 400k-600k.

So no, I don't see X|S reaching 40m units lifetime.

Just because a console gets discontinued doesn't mean they stop selling. 

Yes, but at some point they stop counting, those systems don't figure anymore to MS and Sony's future software plans. I can go to eBay if I want and get a brand new SEGA Genesis in Box. Doesn't tell SEGA, HEY KEEP MAKING GAMES FOR THIS! You can find Wii U's new in box. It's not telling Nintendo to put more games out for it. Still some sealed PS2s out there but at this point Sony is finished counting new sales. 

Not true at all. It will be another way to play xbox game pass for millions of people. Xbox one came out 12 years ago and people are still playing game pass on it. Also, keep in mind video games will still support xbox series consoles since graphics are stagnating. 

Diminished returns exist, but stagnation is not the correct term. Show me Space Marine 2 and Doom: The Dark Ages running on Xbox One. 

Those games can run on previous consoles if they chose to put the time and effort in. 

Also, even though I like those games and I'm sure they are doing okay in sales, they are not that popular with most console gamers.

COD, Over Watch 2, Sports games, Fortnite, etc supported last generation consoles for at least 4 years. These current gen consoles will more than likely be supported even longer.

As I already said to you earlier, yes that does not mean they stop selling, but whatever they sell it's already counted as a sale, before they stop, since they add all the last produced units. So no matter what they sell 5 years later, the number will always be whatever they last produced. With Microsoft specifically it's what they produced till they launch their new console. And this won't change with the Series. Once the next xbox releases in holidays 2026 or holidays 2027, that will be it. Whatever they sell after that will already be counted beforehand since it's produced. So whatever xbox sales or shipments are with the holidays of 2026/2027, that will be it. Sure VGChartz will continue to track it maybe 1 year later, but it won't do a ton of units. XB1 for example, which sold better than the Series, barely sold more than 100k in 2021 and just 8k in 2022. So whatever Series sell by the holiday next xbox launches, that will be. 100k more or less does not make a difference after that. And no, microsoft won't magically switch their strategy and all of a sudden began to produce last gen console for 5 more years, like Sony or Nintendo do sometimes.

No. Zeldaring.

And that's putting it mildly.

Xbox 360 Sales (Jan-May 2013) = 2.18m
Xbox One sales (Jan-May 2020) = 2.09m
Xbox Series Sales (Jan-May 2025) = 1.13m

The Xbox One in the year it was replaced was selling almost double what the Xbox Series is doing this year, which itself wasn't a sales success.

I agree with you, MS can't wait till 2027/2028 to launch their next console and keep the Series running. 2024 sales were already a record low for the full year sales of a current xbox console, 2025 will again be Xbox's worst on record. If the Series isn't discontinued by the end of 2026 sales will be so low it might as well be.

The next Xbox consoles are going to be very expensive. More than what most casual gamers are going to stomach. They need to continue the Xbox series consoles sales. Xbox Ones were still getting games 4 years later. Series consoles will be powerful enough to run next gen games minus all the bells and whistles.