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Forums - Sales - Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

 

Will Switch outsell DS and/or PS2? or neither?

Switch will outsell both the DS & PS2 95 65.52%
 
Switch will outsell the DS, but not PS2 26 17.93%
 
Switch won't outsell DS or PS2 24 16.55%
 
Total:145
XtremeBG said:

If some posters include me in the "some posters" number, then I should say that VGChartz gives way more data monthly, quarterly and yearly in one place, and it's much easier to access it at anytime and make whatever calculations you want based on weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly data, much more easier than to go everytime you have a conversion and search for the quarter report from 2 or 3 months back, and do that based on that. Other than this, my work here is purely taken from this site, which will further make it more frustrating for me to once work with the sold data from here for my threads, and then go search for the reports and make new calculations based on that at the given moment, instead of those that are in my head, since I do them even before the conversations like this show up, in the moment of filling the data once it releases. I've never said Switch would ship less than 150M by end of December, but more like 50/50 chance of how much more it will ship over that number (which I adjusted up by at least a million once I saw the Europe data). Also I and everyone else is not obliged to remember all the quarterly reports. Especially me, who work with data, numbers, calculations, and comparisons all the time, which are not once per three months. I also don't determine shipped numbers at all. It's way easier for me to estimate the sold data. I am not sure I know about the case with the NA quarter report though. Believing in undertracking on overtracking is pointless since you really can't know for sure before the official report comes out, and then you just look at adjustments if there are at all. The only adjustment that matter (bigger than 100-200k) till now, and can someone debate over that is the 24M down from 25M back in 2021. Other than that I can't remember any other adjustments that matter, since if there was adjustment at all it would've been negligible, so no point in talking for. Also shipments in end equal sold units, so either way the number in the end is the same. The shipments numbers are those who start to drop first, then the sold ones follow, so it's vice versa and pointless really.

Also I would add, as it can be followed through the comments, my answers to @CheddarPlease weren't about anything connected to the shipment numbers but to the explanation that Japan is up year on year and everything else is flat outside US. My correction on the matter was that Japan is flat (20k is not difference really, and even more when you take into account 4 days from 2025) and that EU is down, not flat, as well as the other region. He explained it firstly like it's down only in US. Also this answer from me wasn't only to him, but to others as well, since "some posters" were trying to tell something like that too. The Switch did fine, but this does not mean it's not down all across the board everywhere, including the holidays. We had one outlier month of November that's all. And through out the year, reasons may be TOTK or Mario movie, it doesn't matter. It is still down. The facts are facts no matter the reason. It's not me trying to bash at anything, since those are the pure facts, it's more like some people getting hyped up and more optimistic than normal when they saw November data and though it will be the same for December, or after that when they saw higher than expected EU data, or even data from the other regions, without checking thought that the system was flat or even up, because of the hype. And I simply threw the data in, so it's more clear where the year and the holidays are exactly sitting, not above 2023 and not on the same level. Since on -200k we say flat, and on +20k we say up. That's not exactly fair. The same was with November. For 17k difference in the US everyone said up. But when Europe is 200k less most act it like flat. Again this is not directly to Cheddar, It's done by others too.

See @killer7 for example. He is Switch lover, he is on the 160M+ side, he thinks and wants the Switch to beat the PS2, but he always make points, he defend them as it should be, and he is not overoptimistic like "some posters". I even can't catch him for debate, I don't have what to catch on. That's how you make a point, stand by it, and defend it, and not attack anyone personally. He even have funny posts sometimes, about Jim Ryan.

First of all, where did i ever said that the Switch would pass 160 million is a given? I said 155 million LTD is a lowballed floor. I never said it would sure beat the PS2. About Jim Ryan: I am dead serious in what i write. Shawn Laydon as well. If a grown up man printed a fantasy number on his private PSP (exactly 1 million above the GB) just to feel better thats what i think is funny, somehow childish. Why not tell us back in 2014 when the PSP was discontinued?

Back to topic: We have to wait for the Quater report to get a better picture on whats happening. 155 million and hardware production including software support both physical and digital till march 2027 is a given and the absolute floor. I DO NOT say the Switch will pass the PS2, i just did not exclude the possibility.

Last edited by killer7 - on 24 January 2025

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Phenomajp13 said:

Accurate data (Nintendo's quarterly reports) is wayyyy better than estimates. Vgchartz data is a reference and Nintendo's data are facts. Thank you for confirming you really don't know what you are talking about. Shipments are not determined by Nintendo, what a silly thing to say. Retailers are ordering/purchasing from Nintendo based on consumer trends/their (retailer) data. Thats why the shipments are sold to retailers and Nintendo makes their money at the shipment/sold phase. Consumers directly determine shipments just like they determine sellthrough, the difference is sellthrough is estimated and you don't get to determine the data is only 1% off. The conversation was about shipments, so vgchartz data should be just a reference that isn't perfect in aligning with Nintendo's shipments which are fact!

I simply didn't gave a full detailed explanation about it. My point was, that you first see the sales for the given week or month, and depending on when the quarter ends, it can be up to 3 months later, when you see that official report. Of course the Nintendo data is more accurate, it's 100%. But you have to pay the price of waiting, and the price of calculating anything for 3 months data, when it's easier and more convenient to calculate it right away for given week or month without waiting for nothing. Seeing the data on the moment not waiting one company to put the report once every three months. VGChartz data is not a lie though it's basically the same as the true numbers and the facts you are talking about.

Shipments are not direclty determined by Nintendo but the difference between sold and shipped is determined by them and the retailers, either way it's not the consumer who determine that. Yes the consumer is the driving thing since the shipments are done around the interest, but for you to be able to see what consumer interest is with the shipped data you have to wait up to 3 full months to see it, where as the sold data you see almost right away when the month is done. That's about what was based my previous post on. Not the exactly full detailed description of what "shipments" are. I get to determine the data. Everyone who uses the site and checks the adjustments everytime can determine that. Trunks also have come out numerous times and talked about this. I am not getting things out of my a** here. The conversation was about sales. Go back and check and read the comment I first replied to, and see that it was about sales if you talk about this. VGchartz can be a reference to all conversations about sales that we all make around here too. And everyone can choose how to approach such conversations, about what regions, what consoles, or sold or shipped data. The people are here because they want data on the moment, not because they can go look over the web for the quarter reports. Otherwise this website wouldn't exist. Yes there are other things on it as well, but this is the main thing it's about.

killer7 said:

First of all, where did i ever said that the Switch would pass 160 million is a given? I said 155 million LTD is a lowballed floor. I never said it would sure beat the PS2. About Jim Ryan: I am dead serious in what i write. Shawn Laydon as well. If a grown up man printed a fantasy number on my private PSP (exactly 1 million above the GB) just to feel better thats what i think is funny, somehow childish. Why not tell us back in 2014 when the PSP was discontinued?

Back to topic: We have to wait for the Quater report to get a better picture on whats happening. 155 million and hardware production including software support both physical and digital till march 2027 is a given and the absolute floor. I DO NOT say the Switch will pass the PS2, i just did not exclude the possibility.

I thought I saw somewhere you wrote something about 160M path for the Switch. I maybe mistaken then. About Shawn Layden, yes I know why you think so it's just funny to me the approach you have. But yeah, I agree. They could go out and announce back in 2012 or 2013 that number. No need to write it on systems or say it 10 years later on a podcast.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 24 January 2025

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
Phenomajp13 said:

Accurate data (Nintendo's quarterly reports) is wayyyy better than estimates. Vgchartz data is a reference and Nintendo's data are facts. Thank you for confirming you really don't know what you are talking about. Shipments are not determined by Nintendo, what a silly thing to say. Retailers are ordering/purchasing from Nintendo based on consumer trends/their (retailer) data. Thats why the shipments are sold to retailers and Nintendo makes their money at the shipment/sold phase. Consumers directly determine shipments just like they determine sellthrough, the difference is sellthrough is estimated and you don't get to determine the data is only 1% off. The conversation was about shipments, so vgchartz data should be just a reference that isn't perfect in aligning with Nintendo's shipments which are fact!

I simply didn't gave a full detailed explanation about it. My point was, that you first see the sales for the given week or month, and depending on when the quarter ends, it can be up to 3 months later, when you see that official report. Of course the Nintendo data is more accurate, it's 100%. But you have to pay the price of waiting, and the price of calculating anything for 3 months data, when it's easier and more convenient to calculate it right away for given week or month without waiting for nothing. Seeing the data on the moment not waiting one company to put the report once every three months. VGChartz data is not a lie though it's basically the same as the true numbers and the facts you are talking about.

Shipments are not direclty determined by Nintendo but the difference between sold and shipped is determined by them and the retailers, either way it's not the consumer who determine that. Yes the consumer is the driving thing since the shipments are done around the interest, but for you to be able to see what consumer interest is with the shipped data you have to wait up to 3 full months to see it, where as the sold data you see almost right away when the month is done. That's about what was based my previous post on. Not the exactly full detailed description of what "shipments" are. I get to determine the data. Everyone who uses the site and checks the adjustments everytime can determine that. Trunks also have come out numerous times and talked about this. I am not getting things out of my a** here. The conversation was about sales. Go back and check and read the comment I first replied to, and see that it was about sales if you talk about this. VGchartz can be a reference to all conversations about sales that we all make around here too. And everyone can choose how to approach such conversations, about what regions, what consoles, or sold or shipped data. The people are here because they want data on the moment, not because they can go look over the web for the quarter reports. Otherwise this website wouldn't exist. Yes there are other things on it as well, but this is the main thing it's about.

killer7 said:

First of all, where did i ever said that the Switch would pass 160 million is a given? I said 155 million LTD is a lowballed floor. I never said it would sure beat the PS2. About Jim Ryan: I am dead serious in what i write. Shawn Laydon as well. If a grown up man printed a fantasy number on my private PSP (exactly 1 million above the GB) just to feel better thats what i think is funny, somehow childish. Why not tell us back in 2014 when the PSP was discontinued?

Back to topic: We have to wait for the Quater report to get a better picture on whats happening. 155 million and hardware production including software support both physical and digital till march 2027 is a given and the absolute floor. I DO NOT say the Switch will pass the PS2, i just did not exclude the possibility.

I thought I saw somewhere you wrote something about 160M path for the Switch. I maybe mistaken then. About Shawn Layden, yes I know why you think so it's just funny to me the approach you have. But yeah, I agree. They could go out and announce back in 2012 or 2013 that number. No need to write it on systems or say it 10 years later on a podcast.

Thats what i mean. If a non Nintendo handheld passed a Nintendo handheld, the guinessbock would mention it, Sony would not have been shy of announcing it with a nuckear blast. The same goes for that mystical PS2 160 million number. There was even a report on a german webside where sony called the person who falsly asumed that the DS would have beaten the PS2 that they where nearing 160 million back in November 2012. And that till march 2012 155,1 million units have been shipped (ausgefolgt in german). I wish i could still find that source. But lets leave that. I don't want to start World War 3 in here🤣😂



killer7 said:

Thats what i mean. If a non Nintendo handheld passed a Nintendo handheld, the guinessbock would mention it, Sony would not have been shy of announcing it with a nuckear blast. The same goes for that mystical PS2 160 million number. There was even a report on a german webside where sony called the person who falsly asumed that the DS would have beaten the PS2 that they where nearing 160 million back in November 2012. And that till march 2012 155,1 million units have been shipped (ausgefolgt in german). I wish i could still find that source. But lets leave that. I don't want to start World War 3 in here🤣😂

I was one of the people stalking back in 2012 and 2013, for the last few official reports for the PS2, but they just combined the whole thing with the PS3 and the Vita. Then I had hopes that at least by 2014 we will get that PS2 data. And we didn't .. I always knew it was more than 155M. But the official data never came after that .. For me it was always somewhere in the 157-158M range.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 24 January 2025

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
Phenomajp13 said:

Accurate data (Nintendo's quarterly reports) is wayyyy better than estimates. Vgchartz data is a reference and Nintendo's data are facts. Thank you for confirming you really don't know what you are talking about. Shipments are not determined by Nintendo, what a silly thing to say. Retailers are ordering/purchasing from Nintendo based on consumer trends/their (retailer) data. Thats why the shipments are sold to retailers and Nintendo makes their money at the shipment/sold phase. Consumers directly determine shipments just like they determine sellthrough, the difference is sellthrough is estimated and you don't get to determine the data is only 1% off. The conversation was about shipments, so vgchartz data should be just a reference that isn't perfect in aligning with Nintendo's shipments which are fact!

I simply didn't gave a full detailed explanation about it. My point was, that you first see the sales for the given week or month, and depending on when the quarter ends, it can be up to 3 months later, when you see that official report. Of course the Nintendo data is more accurate, it's 100%. But you have to pay the price of waiting, and the price of calculating anything for 3 months data, when it's easier and more convenient to calculate it right away for given week or month without waiting for nothing. Seeing the data on the moment not waiting one company to put the report once every three months. VGChartz data is not a lie though it's basically the same as the true numbers and the facts you are talking about.

Shipments are not direclty determined by Nintendo but the difference between sold and shipped is determined by them and the retailers, either way it's not the consumer who determine that. Yes the consumer is the driving thing since the shipments are done around the interest, but for you to be able to see what consumer interest is with the shipped data you have to wait up to 3 full months to see it, where as the sold data you see almost right away when the month is done. That's about what was based my previous post on. Not the exactly full detailed description of what "shipments" are. I get to determine the data. Everyone who uses the site and checks the adjustments everytime can determine that. Trunks also have come out numerous times and talked about this. I am not getting things out of my a** here. The conversation was about sales. Go back and check and read the comment I first replied to, and see that it was about sales if you talk about this. VGchartz can be a reference to all conversations about sales that we all make around here too. And everyone can choose how to approach such conversations, about what regions, what consoles, or sold or shipped data. The people are here because they want data on the moment, not because they can go look over the web for the quarter reports. Otherwise this website wouldn't exist. Yes there are other things on it as well, but this is the main thing it's about.

All of that is fine and I agree. That's why I use vgchartz as a reference but not the gospel. Trunks and the many before do a very good job because this is very difficult to do. There is no denying that and thats why I come here as well. The data gives a very good idea and waiting 3 months is definitely annoying. Consumers do determine the sellthrough which in turn determines the sold/shipments so it's all connected. Just wanted to make sure we are on the same page about Nintendo not determining this. Really I would say retailers have more control which is fine because they are spending to get the items in hope they get their money back from consumers but in the end consumers determine all of this and we are simply looking at different phases of the buying cycle? I can't think of a better term lol.



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XtremeBG said:
killer7 said:

Thats what i mean. If a non Nintendo handheld passed a Nintendo handheld, the guinessbock would mention it, Sony would not have been shy of announcing it with a nuckear blast. The same goes for that mystical PS2 160 million number. There was even a report on a german webside where sony called the person who falsly asumed that the DS would have beaten the PS2 that they where nearing 160 million back in November 2012. And that till march 2012 155,1 million units have been shipped (ausgefolgt in german). I wish i could still find that source. But lets leave that. I don't want to start World War 3 in here🤣😂

I was one of the people stalking back in 2012 and 2013, for the last few official reports for the PS2, but they just combined the whole thing with the PS3 and the Vita. Then I had hopes that at least by 2014 we will get that PS2 data. And we didn't .. I always knew it was more than 155M. But the official data never came after that .. For me it was always somewhere in the 157-158M range.

Official data from Sony was 155,1 million shipped as of march 2012. (More than 155 million sold) Some people thought it was sold and ~ 2- 3 million where on shelfes. Thats why there was this 158 million number. We will probably never know the truth and should Switch really enter 158- 160 million airspace there will be bloodfights who is Nr.1 for all eternity.



XtremeBG said:

If some posters include me in the "some posters" number, then I should say that VGChartz gives way more data monthly, quarterly and yearly in one place, and it's much easier to access it at anytime and make whatever calculations you want based on weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly data, much more easier than to go everytime you have a conversion and search for the quarter report from 2 or 3 months back, and do that based on that. Other than this, my work here is purely taken from this site, which will further make it more frustrating for me to once work with the sold data from here for my threads, and then go search for the reports and make new calculations based on that at the given moment, instead of those that are in my head, since I do them even before the conversations like this show up, in the moment of filling the data once it releases. I've never said Switch would ship less than 150M by end of December, but more like 50/50 chance of how much more it will ship over that number (which I adjusted up by at least a million once I saw the Europe data). Also I and everyone else is not obliged to remember all the quarterly reports. Especially me, who work with data, numbers, calculations, and comparisons all the time, which are not once per three months. I also don't determine shipped numbers at all. It's way easier for me to estimate the sold data. I am not sure I know about the case with the NA quarter report though. Believing in undertracking on overtracking is pointless since you really can't know for sure before the official report comes out, and then you just look at adjustments if there are at all. The only adjustment that matter (bigger than 100-200k) till now, and can someone debate over that is the 24M down from 25M back in 2021. Other than that I can't remember any other adjustments that matter, since if there was adjustment at all it would've been negligible, so no point in talking for. Also shipments in end equal sold units, so either way the number in the end is the same. The shipments numbers are those who start to drop first, then the sold ones follow, so it's vice versa and pointless really.

Also I would add, as it can be followed through the comments, my answers to @CheddarPlease weren't about anything connected to the shipment numbers but to the explanation that Japan is up year on year and everything else is flat outside US. My correction on the matter was that Japan is flat (20k is not difference really, and even more when you take into account 4 days from 2025) and that EU is down, not flat, as well as the other region. He explained it firstly like it's down only in US. Also this answer from me wasn't only to him, but to others as well, since "some posters" were trying to tell something like that too. The Switch did fine, but this does not mean it's not down all across the board everywhere, including the holidays. We had one outlier month of November that's all. And through out the year, reasons may be TOTK or Mario movie, it doesn't matter. It is still down. The facts are facts no matter the reason. It's not me trying to bash at anything, since those are the pure facts, it's more like some people getting hyped up and more optimistic than normal when they saw November data and though it will be the same for December, or after that when they saw higher than expected EU data, or even data from the other regions, without checking thought that the system was flat or even up, because of the hype. And I simply threw the data in, so it's more clear where the year and the holidays are exactly sitting, not above 2023 and not on the same level. Since on -200k we say flat, and on +20k we say up. That's not exactly fair. The same was with November. For 17k difference in the US everyone said up. But when Europe is 200k less most act it like flat. Again this is not directly to Cheddar, It's done by others too.

See @killer7 for example. He is Switch lover, he is on the 160M+ side, he thinks and wants the Switch to beat the PS2, but he always make points, he defend them as it should be, and he is not overoptimistic like "some posters". I even can't catch him for debate, I don't have what to catch on. That's how you make a point, stand by it, and defend it, and not attack anyone personally. He even have funny posts sometimes, about Jim Ryan.

Exactly. So kind of you mentioning that fact! 😎

There are so many people getting personal. PC fanboys are the worse by far. Why should i attack anyone with a different opinion? What can happen that if someone attacked me is that i reflect his behaviour, especially when i explain things many times very politley for example this competition topic: When people just cannot see their favourite brand loosing (being less sucessfull). Sometimes i have a hard time staying politly but i give my best🤣😂 



XtremeBG said:
Shtinamin_ said:

With new Europe numbers Nintendo has shipped a minimum of 150.82M units, we don’t even have the RotW. My guess was way off. Haha also sold on this site Sold ≠ Shipped. Sold is around 2-3M units behind Shipped because Nintendo needs to keep supply available. So you both are saying the same thing.

We have them. Rest of the world did 2.3M for the year from 3.2M in 2023. It did 480k for December 2024 and 700k for December 2023. You just need to calculate it, and exclude all the other regions from the total number for December which is 2.7M

CheddarPlease said:

I was alluding to the fact that the sales decline this year has been rather gentle, not that sales are literally flat from last year. Also the 6.9m figure is what Nintendo shipped for last holiday quarter, which is applicable given that we are all trying to predict what they are shipping this holiday quarter.

Okay.

When I posted it was before all the data for Europe and Worldwide came in. I got lucky that Europe was posted just barely after my post so I updated it. But once I went to work I couldn’t update my post when Worldwide data went live.

Nintendo has Shipped a minimum of 151.14M Switch units according to the sold numbers from Oct-Dec and the shipped from Sept 30, 2024 report. Very impressive.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:
When I posted it was before all the data for Europe and Worldwide came in. I got lucky that Europe was posted just barely after my post so I updated it. But once I went to work I couldn’t update my post when Worldwide data went live.

No. The rest of the world region as added way back, with the Japan data. It is not added with Europe or Worldwide. So we had rest of the world data since at least 2 weeks now (when the top page was updated with the Japan December data).

Also Worldwide data is there once every of the three main regions is there - EU, US and Japan, since it's combination of the three and of course the rest of the world data, but that one is not shown. So even in the period where Worldwide numbers are TBA, they are right there, you just need to open the hardware by date tool and see them. They are just not shown on the top page, that's all. It's not some additional data we are waiting for.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

Shtinamin_ said:
XtremeBG said:

We have them. Rest of the world did 2.3M for the year from 3.2M in 2023. It did 480k for December 2024 and 700k for December 2023. You just need to calculate it, and exclude all the other regions from the total number for December which is 2.7M

CheddarPlease said:

I was alluding to the fact that the sales decline this year has been rather gentle, not that sales are literally flat from last year. Also the 6.9m figure is what Nintendo shipped for last holiday quarter, which is applicable given that we are all trying to predict what they are shipping this holiday quarter.

Okay.

When I posted it was before all the data for Europe and Worldwide came in. I got lucky that Europe was posted just barely after my post so I updated it. But once I went to work I couldn’t update my post when Worldwide data went live.

Nintendo has Shipped a minimum of 151.14M Switch units according to the sold numbers from Oct-Dec and the shipped from Sept 30, 2024 report. Very impressive.

How do you get to this number? My personal guess is something 150- 152 million, but no less. But in the past the Switch beat my expectations many times so i won't exclude anything... but below 150 million is litterallly imposslble at this point, at least if those numbers for december, especially these crazy european numbers are true...