I was alluding to the fact that the sales decline this year has been rather gentle, not that sales are literally flat from last year. Also the 6.9m figure is what Nintendo shipped for last holiday quarter, which is applicable given that we are all trying to predict what they are shipping this holiday quarter.

We have them. Rest of the world did 2.3M for the year from 3.2M in 2023. It did 480k for December 2024 and 700k for December 2023. You just need to calculate it, and exclude all the other regions from the total number for December which is 2.7M

Okay.

Yeah... 151 for sure.

What Switch can do starting from now on.. only depends of what Nintendo decides to do with it and with Sw2. I'm starting to believe they will push Switch 2 until september or even october, perhaps because they will try to produce enough Sw1 hardware, so they will have to slow the Sw2 production, and Nintendo Will NOT launch Switch2 with problems of stock. They will NOT. They probably will just delay some months the release, to produce more SW1 and make a good stock of both Switch for the Xmas season, to not kill the first one with the avalanche of demand for the second one in its release. Also, they could secure a good flow of games for Sw2 nexr months AFTER its launch if they decided to do that. We'll see.

I remember they had lots of problems with the N64 release, 30 years ago, and it cost them big loses in the European market... just because they wanted to secure the japanese market launch, in June 1996, with only 2 real games, receiving only 3 more the next 9 months (Wave Race in almost october, and Mario Kart 64 and ISS64 in the very last days before Xmas of 1996). The next expected big game was StarFox 64, and it did appear until the very late april of 1997! Until May 1997, the flow of the games was not fixed in Japan. So, they hugely fucked up the N64 launch in 2 markets: sacrificed Xmas 1996 in Europe, to secure a very early Japan release that collapsed in sales 2 just months later, because it was no new games.

The console never recovered a good health in Japan after that idiocy, and N64 lost in Europe the tipping point of the 1996 Xmas season, and by Xmas of 1997 Final Fantasy VII was released there, so, MANY users who wanted to buy a N64 until then, just ended to buy a PSX which sold as hot buns in Europe that Xmas (and ALSO, by then, PSX was already famous for being very... "unlockable" everywhere). They fucked up all the N64 commercial life in 2 markets, in 1996.

That's why I'm thinking they will push Sw2 release some months, they have plenty of time until Xmas. They most probably will try to not kill the Sw1 and will try to get a good supply of it, just in case if it needs to refill stocks: It is still selling TOO good to kill that console, is just the opposite of what happened with WiiU.

And, btw, WiiU had huge problems of Software supply the first 2 years, just after its "decent" software launch line. WiiU, after 2012 Xmas, was basically a console for Nintendo fanboys buying EVERY "crap" Nintendo cheap-produced to make that console alive in the market until its big games appeared in late 2014, with third parties already out of WiiU (or, in the best cases, doing full-price capped and downgraded versions of its new triple A nobody wanted).

Switch will be the only 3rd console to break the 150 million mark. Knowing the Switch 2 will launch this summer, it gives Switch half a year alone on the market. It is predicted to have pretty good titles for this year so i bet they will leave it on the market a bit. It will have sold 12+ millions in 2024 without big titles and price cuts, so i assume it can still sell 6-7 millions this year.

Depending on if they reduce the price a bit and how long it stays on the market... i think the range for it's lifetime sales will be 158-162 millions.

We are not saying the same thing. First Xtreme BG said according to him its 50/50 if the Switch shipped 150 million+ or not. After european numbers came in, we both agreed that they where higher than both of us expected so he changed his guess to 151 million. I personally think 150 million+ is the absolute floor but only if Nintendo dramatically underships, wich i highly doubt. Xtreme BG thought it would happen because of the Switch 2 announcement but obviously he forgot that we where still in december 2024, where Switch 2 was NOT officially announced (a certain member here owes me a million dollar but thats a different topic😉). 150 million+ is my guess but i am dramatically lowballing my eatimate. It could be higher as well. Anyway in 1½ weeks we'll find out!

@CheddarPlease I want you to know the reason I disappeared from the discussion was because I already knew where this conversation was headed.

Some posters push Vgcharts figures as the gospel because it is the lowest possible figure reported for Switch. Some posters want to completely ignore Nintendo's reported figure and some dont even know its 146 million as of September 2024. In order for Switch to have shipped less than 150 million as of December 2024, it would need to ship less than 4 million this holiday lol. That is obviously unreasonable and vgchartz figures even show it isnt that far down from last holiday but some posters dont even know what it shipped last holiday (6.9 million). These posters instead fully rely on vgchartz figures to determine what Nintendo shipped. This literally burnt them just last quarter where vgchartz figures for NA didnt match Nintendo's shipments for the Americas. We even have some posters suggesting Nintendo overships according to vgchartz figures but somehow dont believe its vgchartz undertracking. Quite odd right?

That entire conversation was very easy to understand from the offset. Cheddar was obviously showing Switch isn't that far down, so a 5 to 6 million shipment is quite reasonable and 151 to 152 million is much more likely. Long story short, some posters will bend over backwards to say the Switch has sold 149 million as of December 2024 and make no mention of the 151 or 152 million reported by Nintendo as of December 31, 2024. I'm just preparing you for this.

If some posters include me in the "some posters" number, then I should say that VGChartz gives way more data monthly, quarterly and yearly in one place, and it's much easier to access it at anytime and make whatever calculations you want based on weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly data, much more easier than to go everytime you have a conversion and search for the quarter report from 2 or 3 months back, and do that based on that. Other than this, my work here is purely taken from this site, which will further make it more frustrating for me to once work with the sold data from here for my threads, and then go search for the reports and make new calculations based on that at the given moment, instead of those that are in my head, since I do them even before the conversations like this show up, in the moment of filling the data once it releases. I've never said Switch would ship less than 150M by end of December, but more like 50/50 chance of how much more it will ship over that number (which I adjusted up by at least a million once I saw the Europe data). Also I and everyone else is not obliged to remember all the quarterly reports. Especially me, who work with data, numbers, calculations, and comparisons all the time, which are not once per three months. I also don't determine shipped numbers at all. It's way easier for me to estimate the sold data. I am not sure I know about the case with the NA quarter report though. Believing in undertracking on overtracking is pointless since you really can't know for sure before the official report comes out, and then you just look at adjustments if there are at all. The only adjustment that matter (bigger than 100-200k) till now, and can someone debate over that is the 24M down from 25M back in 2021. Other than that I can't remember any other adjustments that matter, since if there was adjustment at all it would've been negligible, so no point in talking for. Also shipments in end equal sold units, so either way the number in the end is the same. The shipments numbers are those who start to drop first, then the sold ones follow, so it's vice versa and pointless really.

Also I would add, as it can be followed through the comments, my answers to @CheddarPlease weren't about anything connected to the shipment numbers but to the explanation that Japan is up year on year and everything else is flat outside US. My correction on the matter was that Japan is flat (20k is not difference really, and even more when you take into account 4 days from 2025) and that EU is down, not flat, as well as the other region. He explained it firstly like it's down only in US. Also this answer from me wasn't only to him, but to others as well, since "some posters" were trying to tell something like that too. The Switch did fine, but this does not mean it's not down all across the board everywhere, including the holidays. We had one outlier month of November that's all. And through out the year, reasons may be TOTK or Mario movie, it doesn't matter. It is still down. The facts are facts no matter the reason. It's not me trying to bash at anything, since those are the pure facts, it's more like some people getting hyped up and more optimistic than normal when they saw November data and though it will be the same for December, or after that when they saw higher than expected EU data, or even data from the other regions, without checking thought that the system was flat or even up, because of the hype. And I simply threw the data in, so it's more clear where the year and the holidays are exactly sitting, not above 2023 and not on the same level. Since on -200k we say flat, and on +20k we say up. That's not exactly fair. The same was with November. For 17k difference in the US everyone said up. But when Europe is 200k less most act it like flat. Again this is not directly to Cheddar, It's done by others too.

See @killer7 for example. He is Switch lover, he is on the 160M+ side, he thinks and wants the Switch to beat the PS2, but he always make points, he defend them as it should be, and he is not overoptimistic like "some posters". I even can't catch him for debate, I don't have what to catch on. That's how you make a point, stand by it, and defend it, and not attack anyone personally. He even have funny posts sometimes, about Jim Ryan.

Just to be clear everyone, there are plenty of places you can get the shipment data each quarter in one place. Thats all I did, I viewed a chart and it was far easier to access than vgchartz data. The point still stands as we learned last quarter, vgchartz data doesn't perfectly correlate with Nintendo's shipments.

The point still stands, weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly, is wayyyyyyyyyyy better than only quarterly. Especially when you work with data every week and every month. But even without that, It's way easier to calculate whatever you want to calculate and make estimation, with much more detailed data, that is less than 1% off, then it's with data once per every three months that is 100% accurate. Also Shippments are decided by Nintendo themselves, but sales are decided by customers. So when there are periods when the customer interest drops about one system you will first see it in the sales, and at the end of the quarter, 1 month after the quarter has ended and the manufacturer has put the report out, then you can see the drop in the shipments for the given quarter. So you can make your estimates or you can see the uprising or the downpath way sooner with the sales data, than to wait as long as 3 full months to see it on the report. Again aside from one off cases, the data here has always been on point with negligible differences that are pointless to even talk about. For the price of under 1% inacuracy you get data much more often, and you get data even for manufacturers who don't put reports out. I won't comment on the topic how ridiculous is to use one website daily, be active member and poster, and don't believe and debate the data the site is putting out. It's like working for a company and everyday threw bad words for it. Or having a girlfriend and don't trust her, or throwing bad words at her while you are together in the relationship.

Accurate data (Nintendo's quarterly reports) is wayyyy better than estimates. Vgchartz data is a reference and Nintendo's data are facts. Thank you for confirming you really don't know what you are talking about. Shipments are not determined by Nintendo, what a silly thing to say. Retailers are ordering/purchasing from Nintendo based on consumer trends/their (retailer) data. Thats why the shipments are SOLD to retailers and Nintendo makes their money at the shipment/sold phase. Consumers directly determine shipments just like they determine sellthrough, the difference is sellthrough is estimated and you don't get to determine the data is only 1% off. If Nintendo determined shipments then they flood the market because why wouldnt Nintendo want Walmart purchasing/ordering as many Switch consoles as possible? Regardless, the conversation was about shipments, so vgchartz data should be just a reference that isn't perfect in aligning with Nintendo's shipments which are fact!