killer7 said:
Are we sure those numbers are correct? I mean we all know the Switch is a sucess but 900k+ only in europe in december ALONE?! 151 Million, hmm maybe, 152 million seems a bit high to me, but after this december i wouldn't be shocked if it actually happened. Anyway, 150 million by the end of 2024 is a dead lock now and the DS should fall sometime in summer! What comes after that depends on Switch software in 2025/26, when the sucessor comes and what price it is. |
Yeah... 151 for sure.
What Switch can do starting from now on.. only depends of what Nintendo decides to do with it and with Sw2. I'm starting to believe they will push Switch 2 until september or even october, perhaps because they will try to produce enough Sw1 hardware, so they will have to slow the Sw2 production, and Nintendo Will NOT launch Switch2 with problems of stock. They will NOT. They probably will just delay some months the release, to produce more SW1 and make a good stock of both Switch for the Xmas season, to not kill the first one with the avalanche of demand for the second one in its release. Also, they could secure a good flow of games for Sw2 nexr months AFTER its launch if they decided to do that. We'll see.
I remember they had lots of problems with the N64 release, 30 years ago, and it cost them big loses in the European market... just because they wanted to secure the japanese market launch, in June 1996, with only 2 real games, receiving only 3 more the next 9 months (Wave Race in almost october, and Mario Kart 64 and ISS64 in the very last days before Xmas of 1996). The next expected big game was StarFox 64, and it did appear until the very late april of 1997! Until May 1997, the flow of the games was not fixed in Japan. So, they hugely fucked up the N64 launch in 2 markets: sacrificed Xmas 1996 in Europe, to secure a very early Japan release that collapsed in sales 2 just months later, because it was no new games.
The console never recovered a good health in Japan after that idiocy, and N64 lost in Europe the tipping point of the 1996 Xmas season, and by Xmas of 1997 Final Fantasy VII was released there, so, MANY users who wanted to buy a N64 until then, just ended to buy a PSX which sold as hot buns in Europe that Xmas (and ALSO, by then, PSX was already famous for being very... "unlockable" everywhere). They fucked up all the N64 commercial life in 2 markets, in 1996.
That's why I'm thinking they will push Sw2 release some months, they have plenty of time until Xmas. They most probably will try to not kill the Sw1 and will try to get a good supply of it, just in case if it needs to refill stocks: It is still selling TOO good to kill that console, is just the opposite of what happened with WiiU.
And, btw, WiiU had huge problems of Software supply the first 2 years, just after its "decent" software launch line. WiiU, after 2012 Xmas, was basically a console for Nintendo fanboys buying EVERY "crap" Nintendo cheap-produced to make that console alive in the market until its big games appeared in late 2014, with third parties already out of WiiU (or, in the best cases, doing full-price capped and downgraded versions of its new triple A nobody wanted).
