The PS5 is gonna have longer legs than the PS4 simply because it will scale up from anything that will be released on the Switch 2... which I expect to get support for quite some time. And given current pricing I think it will be very viable into 2030. 120 is a lock. Getting to 130 will be the real test. A conservative and realistic guess would be 125 million.

Shipments for 2026 are gonna be whatever Sony can afford to reasonably do. And I dont know what that number is. But I will be surprised if it ships less than 20 million.

For sure on the dependencies but I feel that 2026 will be 20 million.  And then 2027 will be a larger decline.  Like 12.5 million.

2026 - 20.0 m

2027 - 12.5 m

2028 - 6.5 m

2029 - 3.5 m

2030 - 1.5 m

Total - 135 million which exceeds my prediction by at least 5 million units... nut im okay with that until we get their next predictions.   That will tell us a lot 

I think PS5 can do anything between 16 and 18M this year, because of GTA VI. Not as high as 20.

2027 shouldn't be such a drop however. It should be something like 2019 year for the PS4. 14 to 15M.

2028 if that is the year of the PS6, then 8M. If it's not I guess Sony should do some price cut by then, and have it sell at least 10-12M.

And by this point we get into predicting more when the next gen will launch than the sales it self .. 

For the moment my prediction is around 130M lifetime. And if I have to bet, I would bet that PS6 is arriving in 2028.

The GTA6 effect is difficult to gauge because nothing like it ever released, let alone as a (effectively) Playstation timed exclusive as far as system selling goes. But I don't think Sony is preparing enough units for the holiday season to make up for the January - October decline. As for 2027, if prices somehow don't change, good chance sales would go up YoY, but I expect a price hike in some form and the PC version of GTA6 to release at some point. I actually still wouldn't rule out a simultaneous GTA6 2026 release on all three platforms.

This is very high expectations. PS5 is surely going to be down on sales for the first 3 quarters. Without GTA a sub 14m year would be likely, as 14m is where PS4 declined to.

GTA VI is going to be huge, one of the biggest system sellers ever, but it's not going to boost PS5 sales by 6m consoles in 2026.

Oh you mean 6million boost on the expected 14 million? Okay I see why you think that is too high.  I am saying that the YoY drop we would expect will be completely negated and that we will get a models boost of about 3 million over last year  Assuming an huge collaboration and bundle between the two and given the hype... I want to make a prediction that meets the moment without getting carried away by it.