Having big drops year on year lately, and passing 30M, it's time to renew the poll, so vote who didn't till now. What path do you see for the XBSX from now on ? Launching the successor in 2026 ? or 2028 ? Price cut on the XBSX ? GTA VI boost next year ? (the chart from the OP is updated)

Its crazy how 2 years ago (in this thread) there were people saying 70-90m sold through.
Now its.... will it hit 40million life time sales?

I think it will break 40m.. but its not going to be quick.
I could even see Xbox being slightly overtracked on VGChartz.
So while we currently have it above 30m units, it could still be below that.

The question is if there will be a next gen xbox, that jumps into a new gen, ahead of the Playstation 6  (was rumored).
And if the next Xbox, is barely faster than say a PS5pro... how will the market react? how will currenty xbox fans react to such a quick turn around?
(ei. are people happy with their experiance with Xbox Series so far, and be willing to jump the gun on a new gen?)

Theres rumors of Awoved, Fable, Blade, Perfect Dark, Indiana Jones, ect all comeing to Playstation, and some even day and date.
How does that effect xbox console sales? Is xbox just for gamepass (ei. renting games?).

Then theres the doom and gloom gangs, saying this might be the last xbox console.
(in which case, as long as production allows, eventually it should go well above 40m)

Its hard to guess how the future unfolds.

40+ should be doable.
However, I dont see any a way for Series X/S to catch up to XBox One.
Life-time estimate is therefore 40m < x < Xb1 life-time

The chart and the poll were updated and renewed, Vote now!
Previous polls can be seen at the bottom of the original post.

GTA6 should push it past 40 million if Microsoft cares to produce enough consoles and convince retailers to store them.

Early jan. 2024....  wasn't that crazy.
I still don't think it will hit 50m now, a year lateron.

Mid-late Jan. 2024...

I thought Switch 2 would launch in 2024 (possibly towards the end of the year).... That never happend.
PS5 did not have a 21m year.... it was only ~18.7m.

Xbox did ~4.9m for the year.... well below the 7m mark.
I didn't think it would be quite as bad as it turned out though.

This was from Oct, 2024.

I still think its crazy (now in jan 2025).... The expectations out of the gate, for the Series consoles was so high.

I don't think the rumors of Xbox possibily trying to get a headstart by launching next gen early, hold any water.

Xbox's future is still kinda hard to predict.... even if everything is pointing towards them moving on to become a 3rd party publisher.
The question now, is how fast does that happend?


*edit:

I voted for 40m+, its going to take awhile. Like 2027 or 2028...  but it should get over 40m.

Time to renew the thread and the poll. With the sales of Xbox Series between 50k and 60k weekly on average in 2025 how much do you think it has left in the tank? Keep in mind that the Europe market is almost dead, selling around 10k per week, and Japan at least for the last 2 months is doing under 1k weekly. The only market that the Xbox is somewhat relevant is the US.

So much for that being guaranteed lol. To be fair this was back when the site had it tracked at about 50m and things going as poorly for Xbox hardware as they have since late 2022 has been a surprise to the vast majority. My first guess was still closer than the average considering the original poll result so there's that at least. I still think it could crawl to 40m as long as new hardware isn't released next year but no way it goes beyond the early 40's unless it's notably undertracked here. This year it could sell less than the Wii U's peak year which is one hell of a fall from grace compared to the 360.

The posts from 2022 are legitimately blowing my mind…there was actually a time where people thought XBSXS was going to sell >70mil?? I remember thinking the system was gonna land in the low-to-mid 50mil region (the initial gust of sales were coming from PS5’s scarcity; hence, I expected sales to tank once the supply issue was resolved). Never anything super high…anyways, to answer to current question, I project >40mil. It’s only 8mil away & GTAVI is gonna really help sales out. It won’t be anything insane, but it’ll surely be enough of a boost to send XBSXS over that ceiling.

I don't believe it'll happen.

The X|S will call it a day between 37.6m & 39.6m lifetime.

Also:

I still don't believe the X|S sits at 32.7m sold-through already as of now. Personally, I suspect it to sit between 29.7-30.5m.