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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Top 108 Million - Global Hardware May 15-21

Mandalore76 said:
Chrkeller said:

Lol, ok.  People online are funny.  I said the shortage wasn't hurting MS and Nintendo to the same degree as sony....  you clarified that the shortage isn't hurting MS and nintendo as much...  well done!

And apologies for the proper use of a comma.  

Actually, your statement read the chip shortage "isn't hurting Nintendo nor MS" followed by "at least not to the same degree".  There was a better way to phrase that without having the first half of the statement read as false and then have to be corrected by the rest of the sentence.  It's why you thinking I'm splitting hairs here.

Anyway, I contextualized why the shortage isn't hurting Microsoft and Nintendo as much as Sony.  

Yep, it is called a comma.  Everything was literally in a single sentence.  But no worries.  We are saying the same thing.  I just thought it was funny.  I didn't take it personally.



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Chrkeller said:
Mandalore76 said:

Actually, your statement read the chip shortage "isn't hurting Nintendo nor MS" followed by "at least not to the same degree".  There was a better way to phrase that without having the first half of the statement read as false and then have to be corrected by the rest of the sentence.  It's why you thinking I'm splitting hairs here.

Anyway, I contextualized why the shortage isn't hurting Microsoft and Nintendo as much as Sony.  

Yep, it is called a comma.  Everything was literally in a single sentence.  But no worries.  We are saying the same thing.  I just thought it was funny.  I didn't take it personally.

All good, same here.



curl-6 said:

Mind you, I'm not saying it ever WILL be able to hit 30 million in a year, as by the time the chip crunch is completely over it may be too late for that.
Still, the level of hype and FOMO for it is off the charts, higher than it ever was for the PS4.
I can easily see it hitting higher peaks than the PS4, enough to make up for it tracking behind early on.

A longer generation than usual is also a distinct possibility due to its slow start and them wanting to recoup their early losses.

Again, the level of "hype" is amplified by the products scarcity. The idea of FOMO is created when a product IS scarce. It doesn't happen when a product is not scarce as there is no fear you won't be able to get it. When someone has the ability to walk into a store and purchase something at any time they aren't going to worry about missing out if they don't get it right that second. 

It's possible PS5 could have a higher peak than the PS4, sure. However, 50% more than the best selling year for PS4 is pushing it. 

Last edited by Doctor_MG - on 06 June 2022

Doctor_MG said:
curl-6 said:

Mind you, I'm not saying it ever WILL be able to hit 30 million in a year, as by the time the chip crunch is completely over it may be too late for that.
Still, the level of hype and FOMO for it is off the charts, higher than it ever was for the PS4.
I can easily see it hitting higher peaks than the PS4, enough to make up for it tracking behind early on.

A longer generation than usual is also a distinct possibility due to its slow start and them wanting to recoup their early losses.

Again, the level of "hype" is amplified by the products scarcity. The idea of FOMO is created when a product IS scarce. It doesn't happen when a product is not scarce as there is no fear you won't be able to get it. When someone has the ability to walk into a store and purchase something at any time they aren't going to worry about missing out if they don't get it right that second. 

It's possible PS5 could have a higher peak than the PS4, sure. However, 50% more than the best selling year for PS4 is pushing it. 

It's not going to be a binary and instantaneous switch over from being unobtainable to being freely available though; there will be a long transitional period where it becomes gradually more available while still being scarce enough not quite meet pent up demand and still be highly sought after. Plus, after years of being rare as hen's teeth, it has established an image as a mythical and greatly desirable piece of kit which won't disappear overnight.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 06 June 2022

Otter said:
yo33331 said:

With seeing how Sony doesn't care about lifetime sales (when they get passed a certain point) and how they announce next gen console more than 2 full years earlier, not making pricecuts and not having full stock of their previous gen consoles (no marketing too at least there weren't any big adverts or campaigns for PS4 since 2019?) I can't see how PS5 will outsell PS4 unless they immediately start producing at least 3 times more units to meet the demand now. Because if they let this year slide it's becoming more and more difficult for the system to reach PS4 levels or even pass them.

The question now is will it pass the PS3 lifetime. Because at least this is a battle PS5 can actually still win.

Doesn't feel like there's any reason to believe PS5 will fall short of PS3 unless we're assuming the chip supply issue won't resolve itself til the end of the generation.

In regards to passing PS4 which is a tall order, it all depends on what the PS5's peak looks like and how long its on market for. At this point its just a guessing game. Sony remains concerned with getting consoles in people's hands, hence the $399 digital only console so we know they want to get many PS5's out there. What they're not going to do is cut into large profit margins just to hit specific sales milestones (cutting PS4's price just to hit 120m). Now they have their new focus on creating multimedia IPs, that may change their focus on hardware sales for better or for worse.

I'd also assume that later console revision like Slims and Pro will have bigger demand than before because:
1. PS5 is huge.

2. Performance profiles are more common nowadays and people are more familiarised with the benefit of 60fps modes/RT modes/Resolution modes etc.

3. Diminishing returns will lead to a longer generation.

  1. And shrinking due to strong competition from all sides (Xbox, PC and Switch) while it can't deliver due to low stocks.
  2. Still rare on console games. Just compare to what a PC game can set the games to look like or perform.
  3. True in general, but not this time due to raytracing becoming more and more prevalent while the RDNA2 architecture in the current gen consoles are pretty weak at that. Plus on the PC side, we're seeing an explosion of performance due to rising TDP rates, where even the mid-range GPUs alone consume about as much as an entire console. And on 4K screens and TV's, you really gonna see the difference...

In short, PS5 has several things stacked against itself which will prevent sales from reaching PS4 level over any extended period.



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curl-6 said:

It's not going to be a binary and instantaneous switch over from being unobtainable to being freely available though; there will be a long transitional period where it becomes gradually more available while still being scarce enough not quite meet pent up demand and still be highly sought after. Plus, after years of being rare as hen's teeth, it has established an image as a mythical and greatly desirable piece of kit which won't disappear overnight.

Sure, but this just reinforces my point that PS5 won't sell 30M in a single year. As it gradually becomes more available attitudes will begin to shift. By the time it gets to 20M sales in a year we would be seeing them on store shelves no problem. At that point, the scarcity principle no longer applies and demand is no longer amplified. 

The thing about the scarcity principle is that demand doesn't stay pent up for long once something is readily available.



Doctor_MG said:
curl-6 said:

It's not going to be a binary and instantaneous switch over from being unobtainable to being freely available though; there will be a long transitional period where it becomes gradually more available while still being scarce enough not quite meet pent up demand and still be highly sought after. Plus, after years of being rare as hen's teeth, it has established an image as a mythical and greatly desirable piece of kit which won't disappear overnight.

Sure, but this just reinforces my point that PS5 won't sell 30M in a single year. As it gradually becomes more available attitudes will begin to shift. By the time it gets to 20M sales in a year we would be seeing them on store shelves no problem. At that point, the scarcity principle no longer applies and demand is no longer amplified. 

The thing about the scarcity principle is that demand doesn't stay pent up for long once something is readily available.

To be fair, I never said it will sell 30m in a year, what I meant was that it could if supply issues weren't a thing. It was more of a hypothetical scenario. I acknowledged that by the time the crunch is over it could be too late for it to happen.

Semantics aside, my general point is that I feel like a lot of folks are underestimating the PS5 by looking at current (strangled) sales and not factoring in just how much pent up demand there is.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 07 June 2022

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Otter said:
  1. And shrinking due to strong competition from all sides (Xbox, PC and Switch) while it can't deliver due to low stocks.
  2. Still rare on console games. Just compare to what a PC game can set the games to look like or perform.
  3. True in general, but not this time due to raytracing becoming more and more prevalent while the RDNA2 architecture in the current gen consoles are pretty weak at that. Plus on the PC side, we're seeing an explosion of performance due to rising TDP rates, where even the mid-range GPUs alone consume about as much as an entire console. And on 4K screens and TV's, you really gonna see the difference...

In short, PS5 has several things stacked against itself which will prevent sales from reaching PS4 level over any extended period.

1. Lol I meant huge in terms of size, PS4 never truly had a slim version  because the OG system was relatively sleek already. This is important because it relates people double dipping

2. Not rare at all. Every big title of the recent year has had performance and quality modes. Id challenge you find 3 AAA titles that don't. Lots of gamers have become accustomed to their favourite franchises in 60fps on PS5 and will jumo at the chance to keep it that way when more intense, true next gen games arrive.

3. Diminishing returns here is dealing with the fact that many developers simply do not have the resources to make something that stands head and toes over PS4 level graphics. The nature of changes you refer to to like Ray traycing and resolution  can all be incorporated into a mid gen upgrades and toggled on/off. They don't impact the gameplay or construction of the game world. The generations prettiest titles (Horizon & Forza) hold up decently well on last gen platforms. That didn't apply to the transition from ps2 > PS3 or even PS3 > PS4. Obviously were still early days but the point is the gap between the generations is getting smaller for the average eye.  This generation has been slow to leave last gen behind and next generation will be even slower. And then when all is said and done, plenty of games like fighting/sports etc will only be marginally better on PS6 versus PS5. We're going to reach a ceiling for rendering a difference that matter to the general public imo.

As I said PS5s peak is a guessing game, but these are reasons why the generation should both be longer and have a higher rate of double dipping than last.



curl-6 said:

To be fair, I never said it will sell 30m in a year, what I meant was that it could if supply issues weren't a thing. It was more of a hypothetical scenario. I acknowledged that by the time the crunch is over it could be too late for it to happen.

Semantics aside, my general point is that I feel like a lot of folks are underestimating the PS5 by looking at current (strangled) sales and not factoring in just how much pent up demand there is.

I Wish all the consoles would be avaiable right now for everyone, but answering your point, people are comparing:

Xbox One (Why that name again? + forced Kinect? = More expensive, good idea but bad implemented)
Wii U (Wii + Screen?... No?, Some First party Gems actually)
PS4 (Just in time after PS3 recover, most powerful and best price with excellent Sony's First Party titles)

VS

Xbox Series S (The cheapest powerful console + Available Right now for buyers that are going to probably uprade later to another Microsoft console / Best console for Emulation? + Game Pass + future New First Parties Titles)
Xbos Series X (Great Powerful Console, Still in high demand & Game Pass + future New First Parties Titles)
Switch (Consoles on Steroids, Not because of its power, but because has all the studios from Nintendo feeding the same little guy and Japan Love only this console)
PS5 (Sony titles and the most wanted console at the moment, but why exactly?, Between all the PS4 users, the pople who just want to try it, the scalpers, the PEOPLE who buys from scalpers and the scarcity principle... Could be a good reason)

After looking at PS5 battle Vs PS4, then Switch 2 around the corner, maybe the next corner... I don't know if people are understimating the PS5, PS5 selling 100+ millions of consoles at this point is an excellent achievement. 

Last edited by eddy7eddy - on 07 June 2022

curl-6 said:
Doctor_MG said:

Sure, but this just reinforces my point that PS5 won't sell 30M in a single year. As it gradually becomes more available attitudes will begin to shift. By the time it gets to 20M sales in a year we would be seeing them on store shelves no problem. At that point, the scarcity principle no longer applies and demand is no longer amplified. 

The thing about the scarcity principle is that demand doesn't stay pent up for long once something is readily available.

To be fair, I never said it will sell 30m in a year, what I meant was that it could if supply issues weren't a thing. It was more of a hypothetical scenario. I acknowledged that by the time the crunch is over it could be too late for it to happen.

Semantics aside, my general point is that I feel like a lot of folks are underestimating the PS5 by looking at current (strangled) sales and not factoring in just how much pent up demand there is.

There is actually not that much pent up demand for the PS5.  Use some common sense instead of reading internet forums and social media.  Here are some more important things to thing about.

1)  The best way to gage demand is to look at the resale market.  When the NES mini launched for a MSRP of $60, you could find it regularly resold for $300 or more.  That is 500% of the MSRP or a 400% mark up.  That is a situation where demand far outstrips supply, and even then it meant that Nintendo just needed to make several million more.  (It did not mean the NES mini would be a 100m+ seller.)  Right now I can buy a PS5 on Ebay for $690.  That is only a 38% markup.  That means demand is just barely outstripping supply, at least in the US.  The demand is not overwhelming.  It is almost met.

2)  One must ask oneself what would be causing demand for the product.  In the PS5's case, there is not much reason to buy one.  Where is the exclusive software?  Ratchet and Clank is probably a decent game, but it isn't selling like BotW or AC: New Horizons.  Software sells hardware, and PS5 mostly just has cross-gen games.  I also just watched a State of Play that told me that most of the big games for the next year will be cross-gen.  There is not much reason for the PS5 to keep selling. 

Basically we should expect PS5 supply to meet demand sometime this year.  Demand is currently just a little bit higher than supply, and there is not much driving demand in the near future.