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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Top 108 Million - Global Hardware May 15-21

Wow I just looked at the totals, I didn't realise Wii crashed so damn hard. I knew it was hard but after all these years it barely made it to 101million. I thought it would have reached around the 110 million with the tail but there is basically no tail lol.



 

 

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Cobretti2 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Time is not on PS5's side. One issue that PS5 has is the "early adopter" problem. People often just buy what the system their friends get, so early adopters have a lot of influence on lifetime console sales. Right now a fair amount of early adopters are going to XBox just because it's available. However, PS5 has an even bigger problem in that XBox has all of these huge acquisitions that are currently making exclusive games for XBox. The further this generation continues, the better XBox will look against PS5 in the first party comparison.

...and then there are the people who will just say, "Screw all this. I just need a Switch." And after the Switch 2 eventually comes, then they will only need a Switch 2 as well. Time is not on PS5's side.

Personally I am at a point where I don't care for the PS5 or the new XBOX.

The hype of owning one has warn off as they too damn hard to get unless you pay overs on one.

I'm at a point where I am contemplating waiting for NS2 (hopefully this is what Nintendo will bring) and PS6 now lol

Nintendo needs to maintain and improve the physical storage and 3 in 1 ways of play. 



I don't think things are quite as gloomy for the PS5 as many here suggest.
Yes, its selling poorly at the moment due to supply issues, but with all the pent up demand it could see a huge resurgence once the stock finally becomes available. The chip crunch in its early years may also lead this generation to last longer than usual as Sony/MS try to recoup their early losses.
I don't think it's out of the question that PS5 can still catch up and outsell PS4 by seeing higher peaks than its predecessor ever did.



yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

I don't think things are quite as gloomy for the PS5 as many here suggest.
Yes, its selling poorly at the moment due to supply issues, but with all the pent up demand it could see a huge resurgence once the stock finally becomes available. The chip crunch in its early years may also lead this generation to last longer than usual as Sony/MS try to recoup their early losses.
I don't think it's out of the question that PS5 can still catch up and outsell PS4 by seeing higher peaks than its predecessor ever did.

With seeing how Sony doesn't care about lifetime sales (when they get passed a certain point) and how they announce next gen console more than 2 full years earlier, not making pricecuts and not having full stock of their previous gen consoles (no marketing too at least there weren't any big adverts or campaigns for PS4 since 2019?) I can't see how PS5 will outsell PS4 unless they immediately start producing at least 3 times more units to meet the demand now. Because if they let this year slide it's becoming more and more difficult for the system to reach PS4 levels or even pass them.

The question now is will it pass the PS3 lifetime. Because at least this is a battle PS5 can actually still win.

Passing PS3 is a guarantee, only way that doesn't happen is if the chip crunch never alleviates, and eventually it will.



Agente42 said:
Cobretti2 said:

Personally I am at a point where I don't care for the PS5 or the new XBOX.

The hype of owning one has warn off as they too damn hard to get unless you pay overs on one.

I'm at a point where I am contemplating waiting for NS2 (hopefully this is what Nintendo will bring) and PS6 now lol

Nintendo needs to maintain and improve the physical storage and 3 in 1 ways of play. 

Agree but they dnt need t do it on the console, they can do it with the carts. and make them writable so you can write updates and patches to them as well as your save files.

I men shit a 64gb flash drive cost me $7 bux. Surely they can get 128gb ones for less than that in bulk production



 

 

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yo33331 said:
aTokenYeti said:

I think it’s a lock at this point that the PS5 sells less than the PS4, but “lucky to finish at the level of PS3” is a bit of a stretch I think. At current sales pace the PS5 is still on track to hit 100 million lifetime sales (though not much higher than that) 

And what is the current sales pace of the PS5 ? PS5 is now behind even PS3'08 which was by itself weak with only 10M sold units.

Even last year PS5 was 2M short of what PS4 did in it's first full year on market.

Even if the stock fixes up, PS5 won't sell at the speed of the PS4. And probably finish somewhere around PS3.

What yearly sales pace are you expecting? Since it's probably gonna be close to 30m by the end of this year I don't see how it won't sell enough in 2023-2027 to reach 100m unless sales somehow don't notably pick up when stock improves.



yo33331 said:
Norion said:

What yearly sales pace are you expecting? Since it's probably gonna be close to 30m by the end of this year I don't see how it won't sell enough in 2023-2027 to reach 100m unless sales somehow don't notably pick up when stock improves.

I am expecting good sales. PS3 had good sales. It is very likely to pass PS3. But if shortages continues to be a problem for let's say the next 2 years as some rumors suggested and XBOX will only increase it's speed as we are going more into the generation PS5 may not reach the PS4 levels and do numbers around 13-15M in it's peak years, with doing maybe 12-13M for this and the year after if shortages continue to be a problem. Also if Sony repeats the same mistake as PS4 it's last 2 years on market may see a decent declines in sales to previous years. Not doing price cut when neccessary, announcing next gen console more than 2 full years prior and not sending enough stock in the years when next console release and after that combined with little to no marketing or ads for it's dying years.

If the stock improves by next year then sure it will pass PS3 but again with better competition now (yes I even count Nintendo) it will be difficult to reach PS4 lifetime.

So while shortages last I expect no more than 12-13M a year. If shortages ends then it may go up to 15-16M but because of better competition than PS4 peak years (2015,2016,2017,2018) in face of Nintendo and Microsoft I don't expect having the same peak years as PS4 (18-20M). If they picked the moment (now, the first 2 years of the gen) with having full stock, then yes, surely it would do much better sales, but now is very important period and if they don't start improving the stock now it may be too late after that.

I do agree it'll be difficult to reach the PS4 lifetime, at this point I think that's really unlikely. I could potentially see it having peak years as good as the PS4 due to pent up demand but it will have a lower average per year for sure.



yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

I don't think things are quite as gloomy for the PS5 as many here suggest.
Yes, its selling poorly at the moment due to supply issues, but with all the pent up demand it could see a huge resurgence once the stock finally becomes available. The chip crunch in its early years may also lead this generation to last longer than usual as Sony/MS try to recoup their early losses.
I don't think it's out of the question that PS5 can still catch up and outsell PS4 by seeing higher peaks than its predecessor ever did.

With seeing how Sony doesn't care about lifetime sales (when they get passed a certain point) and how they announce next gen console more than 2 full years earlier, not making pricecuts and not having full stock of their previous gen consoles (no marketing too at least there weren't any big adverts or campaigns for PS4 since 2019?) I can't see how PS5 will outsell PS4 unless they immediately start producing at least 3 times more units to meet the demand now. Because if they let this year slide it's becoming more and more difficult for the system to reach PS4 levels or even pass them.

The question now is will it pass the PS3 lifetime. Because at least this is a battle PS5 can actually still win.

Doesn't feel like there's any reason to believe PS5 will fall short of PS3 unless we're assuming the chip supply issue won't resolve itself til the end of the generation.

In regards to passing PS4 which is a tall order, it all depends on what the PS5's peak looks like and how long its on market for. At this point its just a guessing game. Sony remains concerned with getting consoles in people's hands, hence the $399 digital only console so we know they want to get many PS5's out there. What they're not going to do is cut into large profit margins just to hit specific sales milestones (cutting PS4's price just to hit 120m). Now they have their new focus on creating multimedia IPs, that may change their focus on hardware sales for better or for worse.

I'd also assume that later console revision like Slims and Pro will have bigger demand than before because:
1. PS5 is huge.

2. Performance profiles are more common nowadays and people are more familiarised with the benefit of 60fps modes/RT modes/Resolution modes etc.

3. Diminishing returns will lead to a longer generation.

Last edited by Otter - on 03 June 2022

With the way demand is pent up I can see PS5 having insanely high peaks once the chip crunch subsides.
If supply was no obstacle I think it could hit 30 million in a year.
Not only has it inherited the popularity of the PS4, but the fact it's been unobtainable for so long has made it even more desirable and fueled a monstrous amount of hype and an almost mystical quality around it.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 06 June 2022

curl-6 said:

With the way demand is pent up I can see PS5 having insanely high peaks once the chip crunch subsides.
If supply was no obstacle I think it could hit 30 million in a year.
Not only has it inherited the popularity of the PS4, but the fact it's been unobtainable for so long has made it even more desirable and fueled a monstrous amount of hype and an almost mystical quality around it.

This would be a tall order. Most Sony consoles haven't even hit 20M in a single year, and no Sony console has ever hit 30M in a single year. 

The scarcity principle is creating an illusion of unprecedented demand, and I think it is fooling a lot of people. What would likely happen if the chip shortage were to magically go away is that Sony would capitalize on the current demand, that same month would probably have record breaking sales numbers, sales would remain high for a few months, but then demand would begin to settle. This is because scarcity makes people feel a product is better and can even increase their commitment towards buying a product since they "want what they can't have". Then they go searching for it. There are panic buyers, people that purchase products to make money (i.e. scalpers), those that purchase products as a way to assert status, and just general "buzz" around a product that is constantly sold out (Think about the Wii). 

IF the product were to sell 30M in a year, demand would drop pretty fast and the following year would be much lower. In all honesty, even if the chip shortage disappeared I don't think that Sony would plan to make that many PS5's in a year until they found that the demand could be consistent.