curl-6 said:
With the way demand is pent up I can see PS5 having insanely high peaks once the chip crunch subsides. If supply was no obstacle I think it could hit 30 million in a year. Not only has it inherited the popularity of the PS4, but the fact it's been unobtainable for so long has made it even more desirable and fueled a monstrous amount of hype and an almost mystical quality around it. |
This would be a tall order. Most Sony consoles haven't even hit 20M in a single year, and no Sony console has ever hit 30M in a single year.
The scarcity principle is creating an illusion of unprecedented demand, and I think it is fooling a lot of people. What would likely happen if the chip shortage were to magically go away is that Sony would capitalize on the current demand, that same month would probably have record breaking sales numbers, sales would remain high for a few months, but then demand would begin to settle. This is because scarcity makes people feel a product is better and can even increase their commitment towards buying a product since they "want what they can't have". Then they go searching for it. There are panic buyers, people that purchase products to make money (i.e. scalpers), those that purchase products as a way to assert status, and just general "buzz" around a product that is constantly sold out (Think about the Wii).
IF the product were to sell 30M in a year, demand would drop pretty fast and the following year would be much lower. In all honesty, even if the chip shortage disappeared I don't think that Sony would plan to make that many PS5's in a year until they found that the demand could be consistent.