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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Top 108 Million - Global Hardware May 15-21

The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

To be fair, I never said it will sell 30m in a year, what I meant was that it could if supply issues weren't a thing. It was more of a hypothetical scenario. I acknowledged that by the time the crunch is over it could be too late for it to happen.

Semantics aside, my general point is that I feel like a lot of folks are underestimating the PS5 by looking at current (strangled) sales and not factoring in just how much pent up demand there is.

There is actually not that much pent up demand for the PS5.  Use some common sense instead of reading internet forums and social media.  Here are some more important things to thing about.

1)  The best way to gage demand is to look at the resale market.  When the NES mini launched for a MSRP of $60, you could find it regularly resold for $300 or more.  That is 500% of the MSRP or a 400% mark up.  That is a situation where demand far outstrips supply, and even then it meant that Nintendo just needed to make several million more.  (It did not mean the NES mini would be a 100m+ seller.)  Right now I can buy a PS5 on Ebay for $690.  That is only a 38% markup.  That means demand is just barely outstripping supply, at least in the US.  The demand is not overwhelming.  It is almost met.

2)  One must ask oneself what would be causing demand for the product.  In the PS5's case, there is not much reason to buy one.  Where is the exclusive software?  Ratchet and Clank is probably a decent game, but it isn't selling like BotW or AC: New Horizons.  Software sells hardware, and PS5 mostly just has cross-gen games.  I also just watched a State of Play that told me that most of the big games for the next year will be cross-gen.  There is not much reason for the PS5 to keep selling. 

Basically we should expect PS5 supply to meet demand sometime this year.  Demand is currently just a little bit higher than supply, and there is not much driving demand in the near future.

1) Thats a situation where you have a collectors item with a limited run, which means its garaunteed to have high value. Its not really meaningful to compare here. The price is going to be determined not just by surplus of demand, but also their perceived value of an item. There could be 2x the demand for PS5, but it doesn't mean those people are willing to pay $699 

2) All you're saying is you don't have an interest in the PS5 but you don't represent the scope of consumers out there. Even one look at the performance of cross gen exclusives tell you the vast majority of people are holding onto buying next gen versions of cross gen games. For some on here that isn't enough reason to upgrade, but that means you're simply not the demographic driving next gen console sales or sales of new games on Playstation and Xbox.


Last edited by Otter - on 07 June 2022

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Otter said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

There is actually not that much pent up demand for the PS5.  Use some common sense instead of reading internet forums and social media.  Here are some more important things to thing about.

1)  The best way to gage demand is to look at the resale market.  When the NES mini launched for a MSRP of $60, you could find it regularly resold for $300 or more.  That is 500% of the MSRP or a 400% mark up.  That is a situation where demand far outstrips supply, and even then it meant that Nintendo just needed to make several million more.  (It did not mean the NES mini would be a 100m+ seller.)  Right now I can buy a PS5 on Ebay for $690.  That is only a 38% markup.  That means demand is just barely outstripping supply, at least in the US.  The demand is not overwhelming.  It is almost met.

2)  One must ask oneself what would be causing demand for the product.  In the PS5's case, there is not much reason to buy one.  Where is the exclusive software?  Ratchet and Clank is probably a decent game, but it isn't selling like BotW or AC: New Horizons.  Software sells hardware, and PS5 mostly just has cross-gen games.  I also just watched a State of Play that told me that most of the big games for the next year will be cross-gen.  There is not much reason for the PS5 to keep selling. 

Basically we should expect PS5 supply to meet demand sometime this year.  Demand is currently just a little bit higher than supply, and there is not much driving demand in the near future.

1) Thats a situation where you have a collectors item with a limited run, which means its garaunteed to have high value. Its not really meaningful to compare here. The price is going to be determined not just by surplus of demand, but also their perceived value of an item. There could be 2x the demand for PS5, but it doesn't mean those people are willing to pay $699 

2) All you're saying is you don't have an interest in the PS5 but you don't represent the scope of consumers out there. Even one look at the performance of cross gen exclusives tell you the vast majority of people are holding onto buying next gen versions of cross gen games. For some on here that isn't enough reason to upgrade, but that means you're simply not the demographic driving next gen console sales or sales of new games on Playstation and Xbox.


1. Nope.  It didn't have a limited run.  They kept making more NES minis until demand was met.  It's just that for the first several months or so, demand far outstripped supply.  The PS5 doesn't have anywhere near this kind of markup so demand is only slightly higher than supply.

2. This point is bullshit.  Software sells hardware.  The PS5 lacks exclusive software.  That isn't about me.  I don't play FIFA, but if the FIFA games were Gen 9 only, then it's believable that PS5 would be in high demand.  PS5 objectively lacks big name exclusives and next gen titles.  Not only is this system not for me, it's not for the vast majority of gamers.  It needs better exclusive games and Gen 9 only games.

In short, the PS5 is not in high demand.  Instead demand is just slightly higher than supply, and supply will probably start meeting demand sometime this year.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

2. This point is bullshit.  Software sells hardware.  The PS5 lacks exclusive software.  That isn't about me.  I don't play FIFA, but if the FIFA games were Gen 9 only, then it's believable that PS5 would be in high demand.  PS5 objectively lacks big name exclusives and next gen titles.  Not only is this system not for me, it's not for the vast majority of gamers.  It needs better exclusive games and Gen 9 only games.

In short, the PS5 is not in high demand.  Instead demand is just slightly higher than supply, and supply will probably start meeting demand sometime this year.

Delusional 



The_Liquid_Laser said:

In short, the PS5 is not in high demand.  Instead demand is just slightly higher than supply, and supply will probably start meeting demand sometime this year.

You did say at least in the US but keep in mind that where stock is sent is heavily prioritized towards there currently. Even if demand isn't that far from being met there it absolutely is far from being met overall when seeing how little stock countries like Spain have been getting the past few months.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Otter said:

1) Thats a situation where you have a collectors item with a limited run, which means its garaunteed to have high value. Its not really meaningful to compare here. The price is going to be determined not just by surplus of demand, but also their perceived value of an item. There could be 2x the demand for PS5, but it doesn't mean those people are willing to pay $699 

2) All you're saying is you don't have an interest in the PS5 but you don't represent the scope of consumers out there. Even one look at the performance of cross gen exclusives tell you the vast majority of people are holding onto buying next gen versions of cross gen games. For some on here that isn't enough reason to upgrade, but that means you're simply not the demographic driving next gen console sales or sales of new games on Playstation and Xbox.


1. Nope.  It didn't have a limited run.  They kept making more NES minis until demand was met.  It's just that for the first several months or so, demand far outstripped supply.  The PS5 doesn't have anywhere near this kind of markup so demand is only slightly higher than supply.

2. This point is bullshit.  Software sells hardware.  The PS5 lacks exclusive software.  That isn't about me.  I don't play FIFA, but if the FIFA games were Gen 9 only, then it's believable that PS5 would be in high demand.  PS5 objectively lacks big name exclusives and next gen titles.  Not only is this system not for me, it's not for the vast majority of gamers.  It needs better exclusive games and Gen 9 only games.

In short, the PS5 is not in high demand.  Instead demand is just slightly higher than supply, and supply will probably start meeting demand sometime this year.


1. They literally announced that they would discontinue it in amongst massive demand in 2017. They was a brief restock but its essentially a limited item that was never going to meet demand, hence why its now £250 on Amazon UK. Point being this was  discernibly a collectors item that will have massive value in future, there's no use in using it to understand demand for PS5 or what to expect for the resale price for a PS5, a product people know will eventually be in stock at their local store.

https://www.polygon.com/2017/4/28/15474358/nes-classic-discontinued-why-nintendo


 2. You're putting your feelings over actual data. Software sells hardware, yes. Does software need to be exclusive to the next generation in order to sell hardware, obviously not based on the performance of PS5 and Series consoles, particular Series which has no meaningful 1st party exclusives that are not on Xbox One unless we consider Flight Sim a console seller. PS5 versions of new games sells many times the rate of the last gen counterparts despite a userbase 1/6 the size. 

at launch 76% of GT7s sales was for the PS5 version, with the remainder coming on PS4.
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-07-gran-turismo-7-overtakes-elden-ring-to-take-pole-position-uk-boxed-charts

People are buying the new systems to play new games as they were intended to play, they don't need it to be exclusive like you seem to believe.

Last edited by Otter - on 07 June 2022

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I can't say I agree the ps5 isn't in high demand. It does sell out here in the States within minutes of being restocked. Regarding exclusives... Demon, Ratchet, Returnal, Forbidden West, Gran Turismo.. too each their own, but that is a better set of exclusives than the Xbox, IMHO.  MS is doing well because of the Series S, which credit to them for their hardware offerings.  



Out of curiosity Liquid_Laser, what is your current lifetime sales prediction for the PS5?



IcaroRibeiro said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

2. This point is bullshit.  Software sells hardware.  The PS5 lacks exclusive software.  That isn't about me.  I don't play FIFA, but if the FIFA games were Gen 9 only, then it's believable that PS5 would be in high demand.  PS5 objectively lacks big name exclusives and next gen titles.  Not only is this system not for me, it's not for the vast majority of gamers.  It needs better exclusive games and Gen 9 only games.

In short, the PS5 is not in high demand.  Instead demand is just slightly higher than supply, and supply will probably start meeting demand sometime this year.

Delusional 

I know, right?  This whole "software sells hardware" idea is crazy talk.  It would be much more rational to conclude that the PS5 is selling for no damn reason like the people who are disagreeing with me.  I still have yet to hear a compelling reason why the PS5 is in "high demand".  But then again, I'm "delusional", because I consider popular exclusives to be a good reason.

Norion said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

In short, the PS5 is not in high demand.  Instead demand is just slightly higher than supply, and supply will probably start meeting demand sometime this year.

You did say at least in the US but keep in mind that where stock is sent is heavily prioritized towards there currently. Even if demand isn't that far from being met there it absolutely is far from being met overall when seeing how little stock countries like Spain have been getting the past few months.

You are right.  I expect demand to be met in the US first.  However, the US is also by far the biggest market.  Once demand is met in the US, it actually won't be too hard to divert resources to meet demands in other markets like Spain.  It will take several months of time though.

Otter said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

1. Nope.  It didn't have a limited run.  They kept making more NES minis until demand was met.  It's just that for the first several months or so, demand far outstripped supply.  The PS5 doesn't have anywhere near this kind of markup so demand is only slightly higher than supply.

2. This point is bullshit.  Software sells hardware.  The PS5 lacks exclusive software.  That isn't about me.  I don't play FIFA, but if the FIFA games were Gen 9 only, then it's believable that PS5 would be in high demand.  PS5 objectively lacks big name exclusives and next gen titles.  Not only is this system not for me, it's not for the vast majority of gamers.  It needs better exclusive games and Gen 9 only games.

In short, the PS5 is not in high demand.  Instead demand is just slightly higher than supply, and supply will probably start meeting demand sometime this year.


1. They literally announced that they would discontinue it in amongst massive demand in 2017. They was a brief restock but its essentially a limited item that was never going to meet demand, hence why its now £250 on Amazon UK. Point being this was  discernibly a collectors item that will have massive value in future, there's no use in using it to understand demand for PS5 or what to expect for the resale price for a PS5, a product people know will eventually be in stock at their local store.

https://www.polygon.com/2017/4/28/15474358/nes-classic-discontinued-why-nintendo


 2. You're putting your feelings over actual data. Software sells hardware, yes. Does software need to be exclusive to the next generation in order to sell hardware, obviously not based on the performance of PS5 and Series consoles, particular Series which has no meaningful 1st party exclusives that are not on Xbox One unless we consider Flight Sim a console seller. PS5 versions of new games sells many times the rate of the last gen counterparts despite a userbase 1/6 the size. 

at launch 76% of GT7s sales was for the PS5 version, with the remainder coming on PS4.
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-07-gran-turismo-7-overtakes-elden-ring-to-take-pole-position-uk-boxed-charts

People are buying the new systems to play new games as they were intended to play, they don't need it to be exclusive like you seem to believe.

1.  Read your own post.  They are bringing the NES mini back next summer.  It's not a collector's item with only one run.  They've already manufactured several runs of the NES mini and they are planning on doing another one.  However, right now is a dry period, and if you look at the % markup currently its still far beyond the PS5's % markup.  This doesn't mean that people want 30m+ NES mini's.  It probably means they want 1-2m worldwide.  Likewise, PS5 demand is not that far above supply, because the % markup in the resale market is not nearly as high as even the NES mini.

2. "You're putting your feelings over actual data."  You're projecting.  The most meaningful data comes from the resale market, which you are ignoring.  The resale value is based on things like Math and Economics.  Nothing else is going to give you a better idea of the demand for this system.

Chrkeller said:

I can't say I agree the ps5 isn't in high demand. It does sell out here in the States within minutes of being restocked. Regarding exclusives... Demon, Ratchet, Returnal, Forbidden West, Gran Turismo.. too each their own, but that is a better set of exclusives than the Xbox, IMHO.  MS is doing well because of the Series S, which credit to them for their hardware offerings.  

Forbidden West and GT7 are not PS5 exclusives.  You can also get them on the PS4, which has an install base of around 117m.  Those 117m people do not have much of a compelling reason to buy a PS5.  Demon's Souls is not really an exclusive either, but there are enough people who didn't play the PS3 version that it probably helps to sell the PS5.

curl-6 said:

Out of curiosity Liquid_Laser, what is your current lifetime sales prediction for the PS5?

I still intend to win our bet.  Recall though that it is based on the idea that PS5 + X|S will not exceed 130m lifetime.

For PS5 alone, I can confidently say it will sell under 80m lifetime.  I will probably revise that number downward soon though, because 80m seems too high at this point.  Don't be surprised if I start giving a number less than 80m in the near future.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

1.  Read your own post.  They are bringing the NES mini back next summer.  It's not a collector's item with only one run.  They've already manufactured several runs of the NES mini and they are planning on doing another one.  However, right now is a dry period, and if you look at the % markup currently its still far beyond the PS5's % markup.  This doesn't mean that people want 30m+ NES mini's.  It probably means they want 1-2m worldwide.  Likewise, PS5 demand is not that far above supply, because the % markup in the resale market is not nearly as high as even the NES mini.

2. "You're putting your feelings over actual data."  You're projecting.  The most meaningful data comes from the resale market, which you are ignoring.  The resale value is based on things like Math and Economics.  Nothing else is going to give you a better idea of the demand for this system.

The tweet is from 2017, so its not next year. The first link is Nintendo announcing that its being discontinued which obviously defines it a hard to find item, the follow up tweet months later them announcing they're bringing it back for  summer 2018 in Europe. There is a whole 6-9months gap between the announcement and the new stock arriving, I thought that it'd make it clear that this isn't a readily produced product... it's proof that its a device that is understood to have a limited production and remain rare, this has been communicated by Nintendo themselves. I guess I should have just left you with this:

"We’ve also been clear that, at least from an Americas perspective, these products are going to be available through the holiday season and once they sell out, they’re gone. And that’s it.” That's Reggie

https://gamerant.com/nes-snes-classic-discontinued-2018/

I'm not sure whats so hard to get in understanding that the markup for such a device is obviously going to be larger than a device with continual production thats garaunteed to be on sale for the next 8 years and produced to maximum capacity.

Instead of paying $800 for PS5, you can just wait a week and see if it turns up at your local store which it will, its just a case of whether you're lucky enough to get it. A lack of willingness to pay crazy markups does not mean demand is close to being met.... That being said the markup is still pretty generous, so the only thing we can conclude is that demand is NOT being met.

PS5 sales doubled in the US week on week. Doesn't sound like demand was being met at all if it can see such massive increases just based of more available stock. Unless the same week saw a massive decrease in markup cost, its safe to say your deduction are pretty useless.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/246323/ps5-sales-top-20m-xs-sales-near-15m-global-hardware-may-22-28/


Last edited by Otter - on 08 June 2022

"Forbidden West and GT7 are not PS5 exclusives. You can also get them on the PS4, which has an install base of around 117m. Those 117m people do not have much of a compelling reason to buy a PS5. Demon's Souls is not really an exclusive either, but there are enough people who didn't play the PS3 version that it probably helps to sell the PS5."

By that logic xbox effectively has zero exclusives because all their games are on PC.

All I can tell you is, as a ps4 owner, I bought a ps5 for demon, ratchet and forbidden. I'm guessing I am not the only one.  

Last edited by Chrkeller - on 08 June 2022