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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

TheRealSamusAran on 17 November 2025
loy310 said:

Nintendo Switch won’t reach PS2 without a miracle and sales behavior we have never seen before, it’s cope at this point.

Will be at 156.1m total by end of FY25;

Nintendo ships 2m FY26 for a total of 158.1m.

Nintendo ships 1m FY27 for a total of 159.1m.

Nintendo ships 0.5m FY28 for a total of 159.6m.

Nintendo ships 0.250m FY29 for a total of 159.850m.

Nintendo ships 0.125m FY30 for a total of 159.975m.

Thats all the way up to 2030 and assuming ONLY a 50% drop year on year. In reality we will have PS6, and it’s potable version on the market, a new XB and a Steam console by 2030 or before 2030. By 2030 we will be 2.5 years into next generation with 4.5 years to go until the PS7(yea that’s right).

There is no way people still believe in NS bypassing PS2.

Wanna see sales behavior we have never seen before? 



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angrypoolman on 17 November 2025
TheRealSamusAran said:
loy310 said:

Nintendo Switch won’t reach PS2 without a miracle and sales behavior we have never seen before, it’s cope at this point.

Will be at 156.1m total by end of FY25;

Nintendo ships 2m FY26 for a total of 158.1m.

Nintendo ships 1m FY27 for a total of 159.1m.

Nintendo ships 0.5m FY28 for a total of 159.6m.

Nintendo ships 0.250m FY29 for a total of 159.850m.

Nintendo ships 0.125m FY30 for a total of 159.975m.

Thats all the way up to 2030 and assuming ONLY a 50% drop year on year. In reality we will have PS6, and it’s potable version on the market, a new XB and a Steam console by 2030 or before 2030. By 2030 we will be 2.5 years into next generation with 4.5 years to go until the PS7(yea that’s right).

There is no way people still believe in NS bypassing PS2.

Wanna see sales behavior we have never seen before? 

Maybe the switch can do that and 5 million units can be magically added to the total. Anything can happen.



Wii code: 8578 3842 6416 3239

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=90465

loy310 on 17 November 2025
TheRealSamusAran said:
loy310 said:

Nintendo Switch won’t reach PS2 without a miracle and sales behavior we have never seen before, it’s cope at this point.

Will be at 156.1m total by end of FY25;

Nintendo ships 2m FY26 for a total of 158.1m.

Nintendo ships 1m FY27 for a total of 159.1m.

Nintendo ships 0.5m FY28 for a total of 159.6m.

Nintendo ships 0.250m FY29 for a total of 159.850m.

Nintendo ships 0.125m FY30 for a total of 159.975m.

Thats all the way up to 2030 and assuming ONLY a 50% drop year on year. In reality we will have PS6, and it’s potable version on the market, a new XB and a Steam console by 2030 or before 2030. By 2030 we will be 2.5 years into next generation with 4.5 years to go until the PS7(yea that’s right).

There is no way people still believe in NS bypassing PS2.

Wanna see sales behavior we have never seen before? 

angrypoolman said:
TheRealSamusAran said:

Wanna see sales behavior we have never seen before? 

Maybe the switch can do that and 5 million units can be magically added to the total. Anything can happen.

This PS2 situation is all you guys have to fuel your desire to have the switch outsell it.
But here we go, break it down for me how the NS crosses 160 million in the next 4 years, break it down the way I did my prediction.

Last edited by loy310 - on 17 November 2025

angrypoolman on 17 November 2025
loy310 said:
TheRealSamusAran said:

Wanna see sales behavior we have never seen before? 

angrypoolman said:

Maybe the switch can do that and 5 million units can be magically added to the total. Anything can happen.

This PS2 situation is all you guys have to fuel your desire to have the switch outsell it.
But here we go, break it down for me how the NS crosses 160 million in the next 4 years, break it down the way I did my prediction.

Switch sells 4 million this year then 4 million next year. Done.



Wii code: 8578 3842 6416 3239

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=90465

XtremeBG on 18 November 2025
TheRealSamusAran said:
Wanna see sales behavior we have never seen before? 

Just to clarify, I will copy and paste my legend here:

  • Years in the comparison table are actually the first quarters of the given calendar year. For example - 2012/2029 is the quarter from Jan-March for 2012/2029 calendar year.

The actual full FY ending in March 2012, did 4.1M

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 18 November 2025

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

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xl-klaudkil on 18 November 2025
trunkswd said:

Nintendo currently forecasts it will ship 4 million Switch consoles this fiscal year, which would bring the figure up to 156.12 million units at the end of March 2026 if Nintendo hits its forecast exactly. 

Hypothetical if shipment figures drop 50% per year afterwards that would mean another 2 million for the FY ending March 2027 and 1 million for the FY ending March 2028. That would bring the total to 159.12 million. 

Its highly likely they won't even hit that 4 mill mark.

It's also verry highly likely switch drop next year will be around 60 -80%.

Sadly or a miracle happens it's almost impossible.



xl-klaudkil on 18 November 2025
TheRealSamusAran said:
loy310 said:

Nintendo Switch won’t reach PS2 without a miracle and sales behavior we have never seen before, it’s cope at this point.

Will be at 156.1m total by end of FY25;

Nintendo ships 2m FY26 for a total of 158.1m.

Nintendo ships 1m FY27 for a total of 159.1m.

Nintendo ships 0.5m FY28 for a total of 159.6m.

Nintendo ships 0.250m FY29 for a total of 159.850m.

Nintendo ships 0.125m FY30 for a total of 159.975m.

Thats all the way up to 2030 and assuming ONLY a 50% drop year on year. In reality we will have PS6, and it’s potable version on the market, a new XB and a Steam console by 2030 or before 2030. By 2030 we will be 2.5 years into next generation with 4.5 years to go until the PS7(yea that’s right).

There is no way people still believe in NS bypassing PS2.

Wanna see sales behavior we have never seen before? 

Question: did sony stop making the ps2 in 2012?

Or just stoppes saying how much it sold?



loy310 on 18 November 2025
xl-klaudkil said:
TheRealSamusAran said:

Wanna see sales behavior we have never seen before? 

Question: did sony stop making the ps2 in 2012?

Or just stoppes saying how much it sold?

Production Ended: January 4, 2013, with sales ending later in 2013.



xl-klaudkil on 18 November 2025
loy310 said:
xl-klaudkil said:

Question: did sony stop making the ps2 in 2012?

Or just stoppes saying how much it sold?

Production Ended: January 4, 2013, with sales ending later in 2013.

Hmm even i think thats sketchy, it would have been better if sony just mentioned how they get those number.

However,are companies aloud to just, lie about numbers?



S.Peelman on 18 November 2025
loy310 said:

This PS2 situation is all you guys have to fuel your desire to have the switch outsell it.
But here we go, break it down for me how the NS crosses 160 million in the next 4 years, break it down the way I did my prediction.

Will be at 156.1m total by end of FY25;

Nintendo ships 2.05m FY26 for a total of 158.15m.

Nintendo ships 1.0m FY27 for a total of 159.15m.

Nintendo ships 0.5m FY28 for a total of 159.65m.

Nintendo ships 0.250m FY29 for a total of 159.9m.

Nintendo ships 0.125m FY30 for a total of 160.025m.

I added 0.05M to one of your years. I didn’t dare to put in any more, this was already hard enough. But at least, if yours was within the realm of possibility than surely this is too.

Last edited by S.Peelman - on 18 November 2025