Circana (NPD) for May was delayed to July 9. We are waiting on that to post the rest of May estimates. The current plan for June is to post all of Japan about a week after that. 

As far as Switch, It was at 152.12 million shipped as of March 31, 2025 with Nintendo forecasting 4.5 million shipped from April 2025 to March 2026. That would be a total of 156.62 million shipped at the end of March 2026.

Yeah its not gonna pass the PS2 and as far as the DS... that is still with the realm of possibility but not very likely.   Although ending up at number 3 is far from a bad result. 

I think people are slowly realizing this isn't going to happen now.

Yeah looking at just how fast it's dropping in Japan means it's probably already selling sub 50k a week and with it looking like it could get a price increase in Canada in a couple months it's gonna be nearly dead by early 2026 at this rate. It was obviously gonna fall off a ton this year but even I'm a little surprised that it seems to be collapsing as quickly as the DS did so far since I thought aspects like the Lite model would help it have somewhat more longevity.

Based on the forecast its shipments will be fairly similar to the first fiscal year for the DS post 3DS so things are matching that so far but considering it had a couple months this fiscal year before the Switch 2 launched while that DS one was after the 3DS had launched everywhere means it's actually looking worse for the Switch long term compared to the DS so shipments could be very low next fiscal year.

The certainty a lot of people had for it reaching 160m never made much sense since it was clear for years it was gonna be close and it still will be since it will get to at least 158m assuming it meets the forecast. 159m is still doable but that last million is looking increasingly unlikely with each passing week so it just barely missing the mark is the most likely scenario now.

Yeah looking at just how fast it's dropping in Japan means it's probably already selling sub 50k a week and with it looking like it could get a price increase in Canada in a couple months it's gonna be nearly dead by early 2026 at this rate. It was obviously gonna fall off a ton this year but even I'm a little surprised that it seems to be collapsing as quickly as the DS did so far since I thought aspects like the Lite model would help it have somewhat more longevity.

Based on the forecast its shipments will be fairly similar to the first fiscal year for the DS post 3DS so things are matching that so far but considering it had a couple months this fiscal year before the Switch 2 launched while that DS one was after the 3DS had launched everywhere means it's actually looking worse for the Switch long term compared to the DS so shipments could be very low next fiscal year.

The certainty a lot of people had for it reaching 160m never made much sense since it was clear for years it was gonna be close and it still will be since it will get to at least 158m assuming it meets the forecast. 159m is still doable but that last million is looking increasingly unlikely with each passing week so it just barely missing the mark is the most likely scenario now.

Exacltly. Assuming the Switch will still be alive during Switch 2's first three years with a 50% decline in its sales, we'd be have something like

by March 2026: 156M+
by March 2027: 158M+

by March 2028: 159M+

The thing is, I don't think its sales report wouldn't finish in March, but in December 2027, so the Switch would have 3 months less

With the speed it's dropping (worldwide, EU and US for the first 4 months of the year) and especially the Japan region for all of the weeks, it starting to look like even the DS will be tough to reach. It will reach it, but the legs are breaking underneath it and even passing the DS may feel like a crawl. (talking sold units here, shipments are closer, but they will equal out and go to a crawl shortly after that). I still expect 157-158M lifetime, but if those drops continue with the same speed, then even that may become a stretch. With sales going to likely 50-60k weekly by June and July (worldwide), like you said, this would be a massive drop for a period of 6 months, since it started the year with week of almost 150k, and now in the middle of the year to have weeks of 50-60k, three times less than what it started the year with. What we should expect by end of October ? Weeks of 20-30k ? Even the DS and the PS4 didn't had such a massive and fast drops in such a small period.

DS is happening no issue. It would have to miss the 4.5m forecast by such a massive degree to not reach 154m considering it's already at 152m shipped by the end of March. My expectation now is 158-159m assuming that forecast isn't significantly off.

Yeah, but by the time it reach it with sales numbers, it's shipments will slow to a crawl, and it will be very close to the sold units, since from now on the gap will only close between the two. They can't maintain 2M gap or even 1.5M with sales of 60-80k per week and 500-600k per quarter. It's starting to get real ugly. I won't be surprised if we have like 0.5M shipment units for the next two quarters in order to decrease the gap of shipped vs sold.

Keep in mind that the first quarter is mostly before the Switch 2 launched since it's from April till June so that one will be fine at least.