Norion said:
Yeah looking at just how fast it's dropping in Japan means it's probably already selling sub 50k a week and with it looking like it could get a price increase in Canada in a couple months it's gonna be nearly dead by early 2026 at this rate. It was obviously gonna fall off a ton this year but even I'm a little surprised that it seems to be collapsing as quickly as the DS did so far since I thought aspects like the Lite model would help it have somewhat more longevity. Based on the forecast its shipments will be fairly similar to the first fiscal year for the DS post 3DS so things are matching that so far but considering it had a couple months this fiscal year before the Switch 2 launched while that DS one was after the 3DS had launched everywhere means it's actually looking worse for the Switch long term compared to the DS so shipments could be very low next fiscal year. The certainty a lot of people had for it reaching 160m never made much sense since it was clear for years it was gonna be close and it still will be since it will get to at least 158m assuming it meets the forecast. 159m is still doable but that last million is looking increasingly unlikely with each passing week so it just barely missing the mark is the most likely scenario now. |
Exacltly. Assuming the Switch will still be alive during Switch 2's first three years with a 50% decline in its sales, we'd be have something like
by March 2026: 156M+
by March 2027: 158M+
by March 2028: 159M+
The thing is, I don't think its sales report wouldn't finish in March, but in December 2027, so the Switch would have 3 months less
