CourageTCD said:
Norion said:
Yeah looking at just how fast it's dropping in Japan means it's probably already selling sub 50k a week and with it looking like it could get a price increase in Canada in a couple months it's gonna be nearly dead by early 2026 at this rate. It was obviously gonna fall off a ton this year but even I'm a little surprised that it seems to be collapsing as quickly as the DS did so far since I thought aspects like the Lite model would help it have somewhat more longevity.
Based on the forecast its shipments will be fairly similar to the first fiscal year for the DS post 3DS so things are matching that so far but considering it had a couple months this fiscal year before the Switch 2 launched while that DS one was after the 3DS had launched everywhere means it's actually looking worse for the Switch long term compared to the DS so shipments could be very low next fiscal year.
The certainty a lot of people had for it reaching 160m never made much sense since it was clear for years it was gonna be close and it still will be since it will get to at least 158m assuming it meets the forecast. 159m is still doable but that last million is looking increasingly unlikely with each passing week so it just barely missing the mark is the most likely scenario now.
|
Exacltly. Assuming the Switch will still be alive during Switch 2's first three years with a 50% decline in its sales, we'd be have something like
by March 2026: 156M+
by March 2027: 158M+
by March 2028: 159M+
The thing is, I don't think its sales report wouldn't finish in March, but in December 2027, so the Switch would have 3 months less
|
That seems about right assuming it does reach 156.6m by the end of March next year. Around 2m for the next fiscal year seems reasonable but after that shipments will decline to basically nothing so it'll likely be a major crawl to 159m if it gets there.
XtremeBG said:
Norion said:
Yeah looking at just how fast it's dropping in Japan means it's probably already selling sub 50k a week and with it looking like it could get a price increase in Canada in a couple months it's gonna be nearly dead by early 2026 at this rate. It was obviously gonna fall off a ton this year but even I'm a little surprised that it seems to be collapsing as quickly as the DS did so far since I thought aspects like the Lite model would help it have somewhat more longevity.
Based on the forecast its shipments will be fairly similar to the first fiscal year for the DS post 3DS so things are matching that so far but considering it had a couple months this fiscal year before the Switch 2 launched while that DS one was after the 3DS had launched everywhere means it's actually looking worse for the Switch long term compared to the DS so shipments could be very low next fiscal year.
The certainty a lot of people had for it reaching 160m never made much sense since it was clear for years it was gonna be close and it still will be since it will get to at least 158m assuming it meets the forecast. 159m is still doable but that last million is looking increasingly unlikely with each passing week so it just barely missing the mark is the most likely scenario now.
|
With the speed it's dropping (worldwide, EU and US for the first 4 months of the year) and especially the Japan region for all of the weeks, it starting to look like even the DS will be tough to reach. It will reach it, but the legs are breaking underneath it and even passing the DS may feel like a crawl. (talking sold units here, shipments are closer, but they will equal out and go to a crawl shortly after that). I still expect 157-158M lifetime, but if those drops continue with the same speed, then even that may become a stretch. With sales going to likely 50-60k weekly by June and July (worldwide), like you said, this would be a massive drop for a period of 6 months, since it started the year with week of almost 150k, and now in the middle of the year to have weeks of 50-60k, three times less than what it started the year with. What we should expect by end of October ? Weeks of 20-30k ? Even the DS and the PS4 didn't had such a massive and fast drops in such a small period.
|
DS is happening no issue. It would have to miss the 4.5m forecast by such a massive degree to not reach 154m considering it's already at 152m shipped by the end of March. My expectation now is 158-159m assuming that forecast isn't significantly off.
Currently Online 
