My point absolutely stands. Even if the original number was chosen because of the PS2, Sony's actions have no direct consequence in Nintendo getting to such a number in the context of this particular discussion. They are entirely lateral and thus their relevance could be considered not totally on topic here.

The thread's title refers to the number that Switch has to achieve to become the best-selling console of all time. Sony's corporate website may have listed "more than 155.0m" for the PS2 at the time of this thread's creation, but it was known that this wasn't the final lifetime number, so about the midway point of the estimated range was taken because it also happens to be a round number. Sony issuing an update to their website doesn't change anything for this thread, because since its inception it was assumed that the final PS2 lifetime figure is at around 160m units.

Was Sony's motivation for this update that Switch was closing in on 155m units and certain to beat it? Of course it was. But at the same time this doesn't mean that Sony will raise the figure another time when Switch is closing in on 160m and that's for the simple reason that Sony didn't ship more PS2 units. In other words, any hypotheticals that Sony could potentially raise the number to 165m are incredibly stupid and the people making such suggestions should be ashamed of themselves.

As for Switch's sales trajectory, it's looking like the holiday quarter can achieve at least 5.5m units, bringing calendar year shipments to just above 12m and the LTD figure to 151.5m. Even a strong year over year decline of 50% would still result in 6m and 157.5m LTD by the end of 2025. Assuming a 70% decline in the following year gives us 1.8m and 159.3m by the end of 2026. In this scenario it would come down to the wire, but...

...I see no good reason why Switch's decline should be so steep in a market environment where Switch 2 costs $400+, the PS5 Digital Edition $400+ and Xbox has hardly any relevance anymore. Switch Lite and the original Switch with a bundled game will be the only low-cost options in the market and that's going to hold true for at least 2025 and 2026. Nintendo will release a bunch of low tier first party software plus a new Pokémon Legends while third parties will bank on cross-gen support for Switch and Switch 2 for a while, so Switch is far from dead. And as you can see from the above numbers, it really doesn't take much for Switch to get comfortably past 160m and hit 162m minimum.

I won't worry about this being a close race until we have facts that support it being one, hence why I don't participate much in here for most of the year.

Here are my projections for the Switch with the new info. And I hope to update it after April 2nd and when FY info is available.

FY'25 Q3: According to Switch Sept Shipment Data and VGChartz estimates of sold, Nintendo has shipped near 152M (give or take +600k units).

Current FY'25 Q4: Nintendo announced Switch 2, maybe we have a Switch-only direct in February. Sales may drop but nothing more than 30%, we will use 30% as the worst-case scenario. Nintendo ships an additional 1.37M reaching 153.37M.

FY'26 Q1: Nintendo releases their goals with 26M (20M for the Switch 2 and 6M for the Switch, making the goal 159.37M) units shipped. Nintendo releases their Switch 2 trailer with the launch date in June, though I feel August would be better but we will stick to June as it is two months after the trailer. This is a launch schedule similar to the Switch. For simplicity I will only use 30% decline, as the Switch 2 will launch later in the quarter. They also announce that after Mar 31 2026, they will stop producing software for the Switch and Switch V2 will be discontinued leaving only OLED and Lite after Mar 31, 2026. Nintendo ships an additional 1.47M reaching 154.84M.

FY'26 Q2: Nintendo has the Switch 2 upfront and center, and lowered the Switch prices. I expect anywhere from a $50-$100 price drop on the Switch models. Hopefully, it will look as so
Switch:$249.99
Switch Lite:$149.99
Switch OLED:$299.99
However, considering that the Switch 2 is leaked and rumored to release at $449.99 with another model (or bundle) at $499.99, Nintendo may not feel the need to set a price drop. If they drop the price, we can expect near a 40% drop, but if they don't drop the price we should expect near a 50% drop. In the worst-case scenario, we will use the 50% drop. Nintendo ships an additional 1.31M units reaching 156.15M.

FY'26 Q3: Nintendo set price drops on Switch hardware in the form of bundles and Nintendo Online (as Nintendo will rebrand NSO to just NO so that they can still milk in the money they get but now on two fronts of consoles). We should expect around a 50% drop. Nintendo ships 2.55M units reaching 158.7M.

FY'26 Q4: The last Nintendo produced software is released, there will still be Switch launches on the e-shop and maybe some physical, but no more will be coming from Nintendo studios. The Switch V2 is no longer produced. We should expect around a 50% drop. Nintendo ships 670k reaching 159.37M. 

FY'27 Q1: Nintendo sets their FY goal at 24.5 (22M Switch 2 and 2.5M Switch making the goal 161.87M). They announce the OLED will no longer be produced after Mar 31, 2027. There will probably be a 60% drop. Nintendo ships 588k reaching 159.96M.

FY'27 Q2: 50% drop, the Mario Movie 2 will provide some help. Nintendo ships 655k reaching 160.61M.

FY'27 Q3: 60% drop. Nintendo ships 1.02M reaching 161.63M.

FY'27 Q4: 65% drop. Nintendo ships 235k reaching 161.87M.

FY'28 Q1: OLED is no longer produced and announced the end of production by Mar 31, 2028. Nintendo sets FY goal at 24.76M (24M Switch 2 and 760k Switch making the goal 162.63M). 70% drop shipping 176k reaching 162.04M.

FY'28 Q2: Legend of Zelda Movie is in theaters. 70% drop shipping 196.5k reaching 162.24M.

FY'28 Q3: 75% drop shipping 255k reaching 162.49M

FY'28 Q4: 80% drop but shipped its final amount 140k. Final counting for the Switch for as of March 31, 2028 as it shipped and produced 162.63M.

Really ? it does not need it, and you are the one who is making so that extra talk is there. I have never said Sony gave other range. I've simply told that Switch needs 162M in order no one can be able to doubt it is in 1st place, because there will be some PS2 fans or lovers who will try to prolong it until Switch reaches 162M because they will hand on to that theoretical max even though Sony confirmed the production units. This is not moving goalpost or fearing of something or anything like that. You just look for anything to hang on so that you can make it so I look dishonest. It's not gonna happen, cuz this is simply not true. See about you there maybe many other things that would be true however. And here I am saying that again! And again I am standing by my words. Because I won't doubt it past 160.6M. But there will be others who will. Say again what my intentions hidden agenda or bias are ? I am listening ? Repeat it common. Since I just repeated what I said in the original comment I wrote, but then you quoted it and start pointless topic, why won't do it now again ? Aren't you triggered now again to say to me that those are imaginary people ? If that's all we are discussing then why you say anything about intentions, hidden agenda, and how I make it look like ? Do you know even exactly what we are discussing ? Cuz in one moment you are saying we are discussing one question, then it seems like we are discussing other question that you always bring up, since you have problems with trust and honest, since you don't have those and don't know their meanings apparently. I will start to post provoking posts just for you. To look how you are getting triggered every time and start debates. This will be my new target. What happened with your victory lap ? Are you still running ? Since switch had a drop in December in US, guess I have to be the winner in your war ? How amusing.

So any who, Rol has confirmed the target is 160 million because it should be enough to top PS2. The highest possible was confirmed by Sony/Shawn Layden to be 160.6 million. Funny enough, I read on another forum that Sony counts refurbished consoles. Not sure if I'm allowed to post links from others, but it's quite clear Sony will stop at nothing to protect PS2.

The thread is about 160M, yes. The range is 160-160.6M And we don't know the exact number.

Here is post from himself saying the same thing I said about the 162M about no one be able to debating it at that theoretical max.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9544907

So is he imaginary person as you called earlier ?

Now since you don't want to tackle him, you will change your stand on the matter and go backwards on your "imaginary person" things.

What dishonesty!

Why you haven't called out him on that but called me on that eh ? I try to move the goalpost and have intentions and hidden agenda, but he wrote the same thing and you say nothing about it. it seems like you have personal relation to the matter, So you are not objective but subjective. What a dishonest person! Go run your winning laps, and have fun!

Didn't Shawn Layden just recently confirm the 160.6 million was legit? If so, wouldn't that be the reason Rol is no longer mentioning the theoretical range? I'm failing to understand what you don't comprehend here. We had that image for awhile yes but it was never confirmed to be legit. Since it wasn't confirmed to be legit, the best estimate we had was that theoretical range. Shawn Layden has now confirmed the image legit, putting the theoretical range to bed. Rol didn't mention it in that recent post, possibly because Rol has commonsense and understands Sony has spoken and the theoretical range is now no longer valid. Only the desperate goalpost movers need it now.

For those interested in how the range of sold PS2 is calculated. The calculation is done by Daniel Ahmad (aka ZhugeEX), Senior Analyst at Niko Partners, a video game market reasearch company:

on X: https://x.com/ZhugeEX/status/1861490917871341652

on Resetera: https://www.resetera.com/threads/what-was-the-lifetime-sales-of-the-ps2-not-158m-update-between-159-2m-and-161-9m.77277/page-2#post-14263562

Yes, Layden did. However this still doesn't change the fact that you doubt there are such a people mentioning this and I just proved you are wrong for 300th time. Confirming 160.6M produced, doesn't change the fact the the people who I said were talking aren't imaginary. And that in future when Switch get's close to that number, some PS2 lovers may do desperate debates with that 161.8M theoretical max. Your mistake here is that you again tried to make it look like, that I am those future persons or that I say the Switch needs 162M or that I move the goalpost, when all I said was simply that there will be such people, nothing more. And in order for them to shut up for good, 162M would be the number which will kill every doubt and debate they can possibly do.

It doesnt matter, if you see that then feel free to respond with what Sony confirmed. You continuing to parrot it, makes you look like the desperate goalpost mover. Thats what I accused you of and I know you very well ;). You showing me post from people (Rol) that mentioned the theoretical range before it was confirmed invalid means nothing now, we NOW know the truth. So these people that will do this nonsense you speak of in the future are irrelevant, Sony's word prevails above all. So far, it's just you that continues the push for that NOW invalid range.

So I'll say again, the theoretical range is invalid NOW, so continuing to parrot it now is just a flatout lie or just a goalpost move attempt.