The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

Here are my projections for the Switch with the new info. And I hope to update it after April 2nd and when FY info is available.

FY'25 Q3: According to Switch Sept Shipment Data and VGChartz estimates of sold, Nintendo has shipped near 152M (give or take +600k units).

Current FY'25 Q4: Nintendo announced Switch 2, maybe we have a Switch-only direct in February. Sales may drop but nothing more than 30%, we will use 30% as the worst-case scenario. Nintendo ships an additional 1.37M reaching 153.37M.

FY'26 Q1: Nintendo releases their goals with 26M (20M for the Switch 2 and 6M for the Switch, making the goal 159.37M) units shipped. Nintendo releases their Switch 2 trailer with the launch date in June, though I feel August would be better but we will stick to June as it is two months after the trailer. This is a launch schedule similar to the Switch. For simplicity I will only use 30% decline, as the Switch 2 will launch later in the quarter. They also announce that after Mar 31 2026, they will stop producing software for the Switch and Switch V2 will be discontinued leaving only OLED and Lite after Mar 31, 2026. Nintendo ships an additional 1.47M reaching 154.84M.

FY'26 Q2: Nintendo has the Switch 2 upfront and center, and lowered the Switch prices. I expect anywhere from a $50-$100 price drop on the Switch models. Hopefully, it will look as so
Switch:$249.99
Switch Lite:$149.99
Switch OLED:$299.99
However, considering that the Switch 2 is leaked and rumored to release at $449.99 with another model (or bundle) at $499.99, Nintendo may not feel the need to set a price drop. If they drop the price, we can expect near a 40% drop, but if they don't drop the price we should expect near a 50% drop. In the worst-case scenario, we will use the 50% drop. Nintendo ships an additional 1.31M units reaching 156.15M.

FY'26 Q3: Nintendo set price drops on Switch hardware in the form of bundles and Nintendo Online (as Nintendo will rebrand NSO to just NO so that they can still milk in the money they get but now on two fronts of consoles). We should expect around a 50% drop. Nintendo ships 2.55M units reaching 158.7M.

FY'26 Q4: The last Nintendo produced software is released, there will still be Switch launches on the e-shop and maybe some physical, but no more will be coming from Nintendo studios. The Switch V2 is no longer produced. We should expect around a 50% drop. Nintendo ships 670k reaching 159.37M. 

FY'27 Q1: Nintendo sets their FY goal at 24.5 (22M Switch 2 and 2.5M Switch making the goal 161.87M). They announce the OLED will no longer be produced after Mar 31, 2027. There will probably be a 60% drop. Nintendo ships 588k reaching 159.96M.

FY'27 Q2: 50% drop, the Mario Movie 2 will provide some help. Nintendo ships 655k reaching 160.61M.

FY'27 Q3: 60% drop. Nintendo ships 1.02M reaching 161.63M.

FY'27 Q4: 65% drop. Nintendo ships 235k reaching 161.87M.

FY'28 Q1: OLED is no longer produced and announced the end of production by Mar 31, 2028. Nintendo sets FY goal at 24.76M (24M Switch 2 and 760k Switch making the goal 162.63M). 70% drop shipping 176k reaching 162.04M.

FY'28 Q2: Legend of Zelda Movie is in theaters. 70% drop shipping 196.5k reaching 162.24M.

FY'28 Q3: 75% drop shipping 255k reaching 162.49M

FY'28 Q4: 80% drop but shipped its final amount 140k. Final counting for the Switch for as of March 31, 2028 as it shipped and produced 162.63M.