Switch sold 12.05 million units in 2024 and is at 148.79 units sold. To be safe to reach 160M it needs to sell 100k on weekly average or 6 millions this year, which is 50% down and a typical decline, after the successor is announced. It really looks doable...

I suspect that the 50% decline will happen nearing the end of Q2 (for simplicity, at the start of Q3). Meaning the Switch will have two “normal” decline quarters, with the drop for the second half of the FY. So yes 6M is a rather safe guess.

Switch will be closer to 7.5m for this calendar year, with the drop-off being steeper towards Q3 and Q4 of this fiscal year, I'd expect a breakdown like this:

Q3 FY25 5.46m (12.1m shipped for 2024)
Q4 FY25 1.82m (12m shipped for FY25)
Q1 FY26 1.58m 
Q2 FY26 1.30m
Q3 FY26 3.00m (7.7m shipped for 2025)
Q4 FY26 0.60m (6.5m shipped for FY26)

Total through next 6 quarters should be around 160m (159.8m), I will make adjustments and an explanation when official results for this quarter come out.

As PAOerfulone said it really could come down to the wire. At this point what month the Switch 2 launches matters more than anything else since there's a significant difference between May or something like September. If it's the former it'd be fairly up in the air for the Switch since with a bit under 12m to go assuming no major adjustments soon it'd have to sell at a minimum 7m this year to have a good shot at reaching 160.6m. That is likely since with the extra months and the Lite being a cheap option it shouldn't decline as much this year as the DS did in 2011 but just how large of an immediate impact the Switch 2 will have will determine a lot.

When the Financials drop, the Switch Lite will be interesting to see. I expect the Lite to sell for several years to come.

As of now, I believe the Switch has more than a 95% chance of surpassing the PS2. Let’s take a moderate approach: by March 31, 2025, the Switch will have shipped 153 million units. In FY26, it is expected to ship an additional 6 million units, bringing the total to 159 million. The Switch will likely remain on sale for at least another year. Therefore, in FY27, it is projected to ship at least 2 million more units, reaching a total of 161 million and surpassing the PS2. However, it is highly probable that the Switch will continue to be produced slightly longer, allowing it to sell at least another 900,000 units and exceed the PS2’s theoretical maximum of 161.8 million units.

@PAOerfulone Wouldn't the number to look for be higher than 151.16 then? You're adding shipped 146.04 and the Oct-Dec numbers from VGChartz (which represent sold). There would still be units in transit and sitting on store shelves.

That’s true. I use the 151.16 number as the minimum that indicates that they at least shipped that many units and that tracking is not too far off/mostly accurate.

I don’t know how @trunkswd determines what’s over or undertracked or what’s just right, what tools he uses, what benchmarks he looks for, etc. So I can only assume. I would say if it’s within 151.16 - 151.66 (500k) of sales numbers for the quarter, that it’s pretty much spot on. Anything over that would indicate under-tracking, anything under that would indicate over-tracking.

But again, that’s me taking a complete shot in the dark. I have no idea what is actually the case.

@PAOerfulone Good point. I'd definitely consider it a fair minimum to look for in the financial report. I've personally been hoping for them to have shipped about 5.70 million in Q4, so that would bring total Switch numbers to 151.74m at the end of 2024. Hopefully we're close! Seems at least likely that they shipped over 5m, with total cumulative being over 151m.

As often the shipment numbers are better than most expectations about the Switch, I won't be surprised if they announce at least 6M shipped and something like 152M or over that.

But then again, 146.04 (the last shipments announced) were sold according to VGChartz by end of November. December did 2.7M sales worldwide and as the shipments are usually around 2-2.5M more than the sales, then if we put 2 to 2.5M above those 2.7M we get to a range of 4.7M to 5.2M. So it will be most likely anything around 151-152M range. Will there be enough demand for 9-10M more shipped units after that so that Switch pass the PS2 and it's confirmed number of 160.6M ?