If the sales trend for Switch 1 doesn't change soon, it won't finish the year with more than 1.5M. Which will be crucial for the overall lifetime end total.

So, at least 2m in shipments! 

Regardless... If it keeps that trend trough the year, it will actually finish the year with more than that, close to 2m.

179k January

179k February

160k March

180k April (tomodachi life) 

135k May 

165k June 

135k July 

120k August 

150k September 

135k October 

190k November 

255k December 

Just too many outliers going against the Switch 1 at this point probably that are out of Nintendo's control. Trump tarrifs and AI memory shortage basically disallows price drops which will artificially slow down the sales the system should have even at this point in its product cycle.

• Sales are more than shipments at this point.. so no, it doesn't mean 2M in shipments. If it sells 1.5M it means around 1M of shipments.
• At this point in Switch's life software doesn't boost hardware, so by April it's sales will probably be somewhere around 120-130k.

And no, if it keeps that downward trend it has, where it drops each following month and the % drop YOY remains 65% just like January and most notably the speed it is dropping with, it will sell less and less with each following month, with sales likely going under 100k per month by the summer till the holidays, with little to no boost in the holidays, resulting in year of sales with no more than 1.5M.

Quick example - January 2025 the Switch did 520k, by the summer Switch had months of almost half of that - 270k. If this happens this year, this will equal to 95k by June. Let alone the fact that so late in a system's life the drops only get bigger and bigger, and there are decent chances that the drops by the summer may be even bigger than that 50% of the first months of the year.

If we take the same 65% drop that it had this January YOY and apply it to the summer months, it again points to a number of around 90k.You can also look at it's weekly sales. They went from 60-70k per week before the holidays to 50k for the first two weeks of January to 40k the third week to just 30k in the last week of January. I know there were some shortages in Japan and the sales were so low there because of that, but even with the next week that the stock went back on Switch jumped only ~15k. So even with that the weekly sales will still be no more than 40k in February (if Japan sales maintain around 25k for the entire month which is very doubtful). Therefore the drop to 150-160k for February is very likely. And with dropping each next week, there won't be much time before it goes to 140k in March or 120K by April .. and yes 100k in May, going under that in the summer. In the end all of this adds up to a year of around 1.5M.

Nintendo should do a Nintendo Switch Lite leafgreen and firered bundle.

We need to wait till May and see the 2026-2027 fisacl year forecast from Nintendo, then we will have an answer about when The Nintendo Switch should reach the 160M.

I know right,its unfair.

You're ignoring the fact that it was indeed almost out of stock in Japan lately and they restocked the oled(bouncing from 9k to 26k weekly sales) , which is more expensive than the 330$ region locked ns2 version eg, while lite had been the top selling one for several weeks, probably facing supply issues too.

Weekly sales baseline is a Riddle, but now i risk to say that Japan will carry it, (and imports from there too).

It can't fall under 100k, Europe 23k (Spain 3.6k. Italy 1.6k, France 7k, UK 3.8k, Germany 4.2k, roe 2.5k) Na 20k, Japan 50k, rest of the world 15k...lowballing.

3.6k prognosis is completely valid, because it is selling 900 per week in Spain , the others are a bit arbitrary and based on 3ds sales pattern). 

You are exaggerating the drop trend .

Tomodachi life will give it some life. 

Anyway, let's see in April their crucial forecast. 

Trunks, could you present us a sales breakdown for NS sales in Europe for last month? Uk, Fr, Ger, Spain and maybe even Italy! 

It seems you haven't read all of my post, cuz I mentioned the stock issues in Japan. However that is a tiny difference maker, since Switch has started to fall close to 10k since last year there, and this year it won't hold on above 20k. This 26k week is outlier. Weekly sales is still a riddle I agree. But dropping from 70k before the holidays to 50k the first two weeks in January to 30k in the last one is not a good sign for sure.

Why it can't fall under 100k ? What are those example numbers you have given ? I am talking going under 100k in the summer, not this month or the next one. Just like it got under 500k and 400k in April of last year, and just like it gone under 300k in the summer, and just like it gone under 200k this past month, it will go under 100k, what is keeping it from ? Is switch immune to go under 100k or what ?

I am not exaggerating, I am even maybe being optimistic. I expected less of a drop in the holidays, it did bigger than that. I expected less of a drop of the US sales for January, I wrote 50k in the US prediction thread but at the end it didn't even hit 30k.. Of course I am not rock solid yet about 1.5M for this year just from January, since my last expectation were around 2M for the year. But the chances of 1.5M year grow more and more. If by March the downward trend doesn't stop then I can call the year 1.5M. For now I am still giving it the benefit of the doubt it can go somewhat above 1.5M. Either way both are short in the end for the 160M unless the drop in sales does not slow somehow.