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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Dec 6-12 - Switch Leads Strong Week as Sales Climb

Mar1217 said:

I wonder if it could have a chance to surpass the GBA before the end of the fiscal year ... probably at this rate I say.

Hi @Mar1217 It seems like it is going to be a close one. Looking at the same weeks a year prior this is what you get:

Week End Units SUM Estimated Total (NS)
12/21/2019 1,554,176 1,554,176 75,133,694
12/28/2019 926,543 2,480,719 76,060,237
1/4/2020 466,030 2,946,749 76,526,267
1/11/2020 323,998 3,270,747 76,850,265
1/18/2020 280,462 3,551,209 77,130,727
1/25/2020 248,518 3,799,727 77,379,245
2/1/2020 255,718 4,055,445 77,634,963
2/8/2020 295,048 4,350,493 77,930,011
2/15/2020 270,012 4,620,505 78,200,023
2/22/2020 232,016 4,852,521 78,432,039
2/29/2020 246,921 5,099,442 78,678,960
3/7/2020 290,734 5,390,176 78,969,694
3/14/2020 383,391 5,773,567 79,353,085
3/21/2020 1,033,393 6,806,960 80,386,478
3/28/2020 792,344 7,599,304 81,178,822

The GBA sold 81.5 Million, If the switch sells as much as it did last time it would be a bit short. It would need to have a bit of an increase from last year.

The increase is not that difficult in january and february, but for december and march they are high values. Specially in march, it sold like crazy!

My first instinct is that it might take an extra month to get to 81.5.



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dmillos said:
trunkswd said:

I can go back as far as I want to make adjustments to our estimates. I can only go back to the 7th generation as we didn't start weekly estimates until that generation. I have no way of editing older sales for the Platform Total page, but there are plans to add an edit button to those figures sometime in the future. Right now we only have one main developer and there is a lot we want to get done. 

Thanks @trunkswd for your answer. My question was geared towards on average how many weeks or months does it take for you to receive new data that allows you to make a revision. Is it only when you get Official nintendo reports or is it sooner than that.

For our weekly estimates we use historical data and a small number of figures we get that we extrapolate to the entire market. As for what we use to make adjustments after the fact? Official reports from Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft (when they still did it), as well as NPD, GfK, Famitsu, etc. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:

For our weekly estimates we use historical data and a small number of figures we get that we extrapolate to the entire market. As for what we use to make adjustments after the fact? Official reports from Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft (when they still did it), as well as NPD, GfK, Famitsu, etc. 

Awesome, thank you very much for sharing. I have always been amazed at all your hard work in creating these weekly estimates. Adjustments don't seem to be too big.



dmillos said:
trunkswd said:

For our weekly estimates we use historical data and a small number of figures we get that we extrapolate to the entire market. As for what we use to make adjustments after the fact? Official reports from Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft (when they still did it), as well as NPD, GfK, Famitsu, etc. 

Awesome, thank you very much for sharing. I have always been amazed at all your hard work in creating these weekly estimates. Adjustments don't seem to be too big.

Big adjustments do happen from time to time. There are times we are good with our worldwide figures based on official figures, so when we for example get figures from say the UK we then have to adjust other areas to make up the difference, whether it is up or down, so our worldwide figures stay the same. Most recently that happened with the China figures that came out. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Excellent numbers. The Switch has survived yet again against supposed fierce competition from the new consoles.



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Other market growth is severally underestimated, the accelerated sales in markets like China, rest of APAC & Brazil launch etc. 

Switch will be around 30 million with a lot of the Q4 YoY growth coming from the "Other" markets



noshten said:

Other market growth is severally underestimated, the accelerated sales in markets like China, rest of APAC & Brazil launch etc. 

Switch will be around 30 million with a lot of the Q4 YoY growth coming from the "Other" markets

If this ends up being true then we are about to see a big change in the video game industry. If china starts to be as important for console sales the same way it is changing the movie boxoffice history, then a new region would need to be added to weekly sales.



Pretty solid numbers all around. I really didn't expect Sony and MS to have such low stock for their launch. Will it even beat their previous console numbers for their first quarter ? Anyway, November and December are pretty hard to predict but i think these seem pretty on point. We'll see with official reports how well the consoles have performed in the next few weeks. I wish Nintendo made more official PR, like they could have already posted the Switch outsold the 3DS or something.



xMetroid said:

Pretty solid numbers all around. I really didn't expect Sony and MS to have such low stock for their launch. Will it even beat their previous console numbers for their first quarter ? Anyway, November and December are pretty hard to predict but i think these seem pretty on point. We'll see with official reports how well the consoles have performed in the next few weeks. I wish Nintendo made more official PR, like they could have already posted the Switch outsold the 3DS or something.

HI @xMetroid These are the comparison numbers for the first quarter of each console:

NOVDECQ4 Launch
XONE1,559,0081,359,9332,918,941
XS1,656,407353,3092,009,716
PS42,136,1692,064,1214,200,290
PS53,031,824701,3223,733,146

Basically PS5 should be able to double December, Enabling it to surpass the PS4. But XS probably won't be able to beat XONE.



xMetroid said:

Pretty solid numbers all around. I really didn't expect Sony and MS to have such low stock for their launch. Will it even beat their previous console numbers for their first quarter ? Anyway, November and December are pretty hard to predict but i think these seem pretty on point. We'll see with official reports how well the consoles have performed in the next few weeks. I wish Nintendo made more official PR, like they could have already posted the Switch outsold the 3DS or something.

The PS5 is on track to beat the PS4's launch period (November + December) by a small margin.

XSX|S is on pace to be slightly behind the XB1's launch period. At least according to VGC numbers, but they are looking like VGC took Microsoft's announcement of more than 3m Xbox Ones as sold through. NPD had the XB1 at ~1.8m for the launch period, so if 3m were global sell-through, the USA accounted for only 60% despite the limited launch (only 13 countries in total had an official XB1 launch in 2013). I've always looked at Microsoft's announcement as shipped numbers, because they had to inflate their numbers to not lag too much behind Sony.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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