NS is going to pass the 3DS total shipment with its sell through by the end of the year, total shipments for NS will probably be at like 78m.
trunkswd said:
No problem. I figured with the holidays at the end of the week it would be nice to get the hardware figures up a couple of days early. it also means I can relax by having a nice and long weekend. I'll try to get the other weekly sales articles up over the next couple of days. Those being the sales comparison charts and the new launch aligned comparison. What the site decides for 2020 when it comes to 52 or 53 weeks I have no idea until I get it posted as it is all automated. But I would think it would be a 53 week year as 2008 and 2013 were 53 week years for us with the last week ending in January. |
Cool that means switch might just yet be the best selling console in a calendar year ever. I do hope that it gets 30 mil+ in the fiscal year as calendar year seems unlikely as of yet.
Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also
| Mar1217 said:
I wonder if it could have a chance to surpass the GBA before the end of the fiscal year ... probably at this rate I say. |
Hi @Mar1217 It seems like it is going to be a close one. Looking at the same weeks a year prior this is what you get:
| Week End | Units | SUM | Estimated Total (NS) |
| 12/21/2019 | 1,554,176 | 1,554,176 | 75,133,694 |
| 12/28/2019 | 926,543 | 2,480,719 | 76,060,237 |
| 1/4/2020 | 466,030 | 2,946,749 | 76,526,267 |
| 1/11/2020 | 323,998 | 3,270,747 | 76,850,265 |
| 1/18/2020 | 280,462 | 3,551,209 | 77,130,727 |
| 1/25/2020 | 248,518 | 3,799,727 | 77,379,245 |
| 2/1/2020 | 255,718 | 4,055,445 | 77,634,963 |
| 2/8/2020 | 295,048 | 4,350,493 | 77,930,011 |
| 2/15/2020 | 270,012 | 4,620,505 | 78,200,023 |
| 2/22/2020 | 232,016 | 4,852,521 | 78,432,039 |
| 2/29/2020 | 246,921 | 5,099,442 | 78,678,960 |
| 3/7/2020 | 290,734 | 5,390,176 | 78,969,694 |
| 3/14/2020 | 383,391 | 5,773,567 | 79,353,085 |
| 3/21/2020 | 1,033,393 | 6,806,960 | 80,386,478 |
| 3/28/2020 | 792,344 | 7,599,304 | 81,178,822 |
The GBA sold 81.5 Million, If the switch sells as much as it did last time it would be a bit short. It would need to have a bit of an increase from last year.
The increase is not that difficult in january and february, but for december and march they are high values. Specially in march, it sold like crazy!
My first instinct is that it might take an extra month to get to 81.5.
| trunkswd said: For our weekly estimates we use historical data and a small number of figures we get that we extrapolate to the entire market. As for what we use to make adjustments after the fact? Official reports from Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft (when they still did it), as well as NPD, GfK, Famitsu, etc. |
Awesome, thank you very much for sharing. I have always been amazed at all your hard work in creating these weekly estimates. Adjustments don't seem to be too big.
Excellent numbers. The Switch has survived yet again against supposed fierce competition from the new consoles.
Other market growth is severally underestimated, the accelerated sales in markets like China, rest of APAC & Brazil launch etc.
Switch will be around 30 million with a lot of the Q4 YoY growth coming from the "Other" markets
| noshten said: Other market growth is severally underestimated, the accelerated sales in markets like China, rest of APAC & Brazil launch etc. Switch will be around 30 million with a lot of the Q4 YoY growth coming from the "Other" markets |
If this ends up being true then we are about to see a big change in the video game industry. If china starts to be as important for console sales the same way it is changing the movie boxoffice history, then a new region would need to be added to weekly sales.
Pretty solid numbers all around. I really didn't expect Sony and MS to have such low stock for their launch. Will it even beat their previous console numbers for their first quarter ? Anyway, November and December are pretty hard to predict but i think these seem pretty on point. We'll see with official reports how well the consoles have performed in the next few weeks. I wish Nintendo made more official PR, like they could have already posted the Switch outsold the 3DS or something.
| xMetroid said: Pretty solid numbers all around. I really didn't expect Sony and MS to have such low stock for their launch. Will it even beat their previous console numbers for their first quarter ? Anyway, November and December are pretty hard to predict but i think these seem pretty on point. We'll see with official reports how well the consoles have performed in the next few weeks. I wish Nintendo made more official PR, like they could have already posted the Switch outsold the 3DS or something. |
HI @xMetroid These are the comparison numbers for the first quarter of each console:
| NOV | DEC | Q4 Launch | |
| XONE | 1,559,008 | 1,359,933 | 2,918,941 |
| XS | 1,656,407 | 353,309 | 2,009,716 |
| PS4 | 2,136,169 | 2,064,121 | 4,200,290 |
| PS5 | 3,031,824 | 701,322 | 3,733,146 |
Basically PS5 should be able to double December, Enabling it to surpass the PS4. But XS probably won't be able to beat XONE.
As of these numbers, just 2.3 million left til Switch passes 3DS.
In other words, by now, it probably already has.
Last edited by curl-6 - on 23 December 2020
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