The goal: To compare consoles that were released on different months of the year.

When analyzing sales, there is no real correct way of doing it. Different methods give us different perspectives. I want to test out a different way of comparing consoles every month. I call it “Month Aligned”.

Background:

I have followed @trunkswd sales articles for a long time, they are fantastic. In particular I enjoy seeing every month the gap comparisons of the Switch and the PS4.

For a long time this was very exciting as both consoles would be constantly passing each other.

One particular thing that intrigued me was that the switch would always pass the ps4 near November until March. Here is a visual representation of month#

Basically every time it was December for the switch, it would take the lead, and every time it was December for the PS4, it took the lead.

This can be explained because in console sales (as in many retail sales) the end of the year represents an especially important amount of the yearly sales. Here is how much each month represents for all console sales combined:

If you look at the previous table, when it is December for the switch it compares to August for the PS4, and when it is December for the PS4 it compares with April for the Switch.

Because of this, I thought that it is most fair to compare both consoles every 12 months. This way both consoles have had each month to be considered for their totals. Here is what the same gap chart looks like if we only look at every 12 months:

Suddenly, the chart seems quite different, the switch has never been behind the PS4 and it is growing its lead every year. What once seemed like a back-and-forth battle, now seems like a consistent lead for the Switch.

But… Is there a way of noticing this without having to wait for 12 months?

Here is where I have my proposal for a Month Aligned chart.

This is what that chart looks like:

Just like the “Every 12 Months” chart, this chart can show that the Switch has been ahead of the PS4 every month, it was never falling behind. If you look closely, every 12 month you see the exact same values as the previous chart, the difference is more in between the 12 months.

How is “Month Aligned” Calculated?

If you look at the table above, you will notice how much each console sold each month, and year. You may notice that some of the numbers for the PS4 don’t have any background color. This is because the comparison is done only with the months in which both consoles have a value for. This means that this December, we will be able to add the PS4 December year 4 to the total.

Lets see another example. The PS5 just got released. But instead of comparing November and December with March and April of the switch. We can compare the PS5 against how much the Switch sold on its first November and December:

You can notice how this will instantly change the perspective. If you compare just both launch windows, the PS5 has ~3.7M while the NS had ~3.1M, but during the holidays it sold ~6.1M. One way you would assume the PS5 is outselling the Switch while in the other the Switch has a wide lead over the PS5.

Like I mentioned before, there is no correct answer. I feel that the Month Aligned is able to compare consoles in a more apples to apples way.

This is my proposal, feel free to add any comments, suggestions, or changes you feel are important. My goal is to explore these alternatives in search for useful tools we can use to discuss sales here. But in the end, everyone gets to determine what is most useful.

What Month Aligned chart would you be most interested in following?

So either Switch is utterly crushing PS5, based on 1st Nov/Dec comparisons for each, or PS5 has a massive supply issue?

Hi @RolStoppable Thank you very much for your comment and feedback, I think this type of conversations lead to better results.

This method is definitely a bit counter intuitive, it places much more weight to the actual month (Jan,Feb,Mar....) than to how many months the consoles have been out. This leads to this unorganized, non-linear calculation. 

Your example of the first year of PS4 vs NS is correct, however, the follow up is correct in the long run but not in the short term. Let me explain.

After the first year of the switch, it will be march again or Month (13). this month would be compared to month 17 of the PS4, so the sequence would be followed by those two values:

PS4: Month 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 1, 2. 17
Switch: Month 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. 13

eventually when it is January again, it will insert months 15 and 23 in the middle of  the line.

Let me show you this example but with a graph this is how the gap charts (launch aligned and Month aligned) look like on April 2020:

What do you think about these two graphs, they certainly tell different stories. If you look at the first one, you might think that 2020 is not treating the Switch very well and that it is taking a nosedive. But if you look at the second graph you notice pretty much the opposite, look at how steep that slope gets, it is showing remarkable growth. 

Now lets flash forward to November 2020:

Both graphs are now actually starting to show there is a big lead for the switch growing, but even still there are key differences in both:

1) The first one is that Launch shows about 8.5M lead while the Month shows about an 11.2M lead. That is quite a difference.

2) You may notice that the month chart shows a little drop at the end, what this means is that the PS4 actually had a better November than the switch, something that on the other chart goes completely unnoticed.

3) You may notice  that the Launch graph looks like a Sine wave, It has a clear pattern on when it goes up and when it goes down, while the Month graph is completely unexpected when it will drop and when it will go up. This adds a little bit of suspense to the chart.

I agree that the twelve month chart is the most straight forward chart, it has a couple of reasons why I don't think it would be best for a monthly analisis. 

1) The main issue is that it can only be viewed once a year, so it would leave us hanging for 12 months until we can see any updates, so it is not very useful during all the other months of the year.

2) It hides what happened during the year, it only shows final results, you don't know what months help contribute the most towards the total year, it is just a straight line.

Now I ask you a question, if you were to look at a comparison chart every month, what type of chart would you feel it would give you the most information to talk about? Which one would be more fun? There is really no right answer, it all comes down to personal preferences. That is why I am exploring this idea, if people enjoy it then it is good, if not, then simply it is not continued.

You did mention something that I think it is highly important to highlight and I agree 100% No matter what chart we use, it simply won't predict the future, these charts are only as good as the current month. Another great example is the really cool article @trunnkswd published on PS3+X360 vs PS4+XONE. That gap chart looks literally like a complete mountain. The incredible legs of the older consoles and the seemingly bad legs of the newer ones is leading to a complete reversal of that chart. Therefore I find your message very important, never take any data as answers or as a prediction of the future, it is only good to ask questions. Like for example why did the Ps4 sell better on its fourth november?

Thank you again for your comment and I hope we keep exchanging ideas, that is what a forum is for.

Hi Everyone, I just wanted to share this table I made. It has the Record for every month for all consoles on VGChartz. It also shows what console had the best Year and accumulative Records.

I hope you find this interesting. As a reference, Switch is now on Year 4 February, It doesn't seem like it will beat it, but March Year 5 seems extremely likely that it will be NS.

It is interesting to see how good the X360 was at the end, and the PSP!?!? 
PS5 already has a record with November year 1. 

NS will also add to it's year 4 total with one more week. This means that it will very likely beat DS year 5 for the best year ever.

Let me know what you think of the table. What surprised you?

the switch is supply constrained into year 4, whereas the PS4 wasn't