Month Aligned Gap Charts

[dmillos]

RolStoppable said:

Month Aligned, as you call it, isn't a good method because it misrepresents momentum. You can get somewhat close to the real thing with this method, but ultimately it makes things more complicated for no real gain. In the PS4 vs. Switch example, year 1 is:

PS4: Month 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 1, 2.
Switch: Month 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10.

These series are then followed up by month 15 and 23, respectively.

The 12-month-intervall method makes the most sense for comparisons because it doesn't add any additional variables to the already pre-existing ones, such as unaligned holiday seasons. This method may repeatedly have snapshots in time where one console leads due to having one holiday season more in LTD sales, but when the essential question is always "Which console will be ahead at the next 12-month-intervall," then the accurately represented momentum in the comparison allows to make correct conclusions months in advance.

But the most important things aren't displayed on a sales graph anyway, that's why such graphs and stats are merely a supplemental tool for an analyses. A good example for this is 3DS vs. Switch which both launched in the same month and their neck to neck sales for the first ~20 months led a lot of people to believe that their lifetime sales would be similar. A competent analysis told you that Switch is destined to break away from the 3DS line and leave the 3DS in the dust, because the 3DS bought its early good momentum with a major price cut and a rather quick revision while Switch needed no such things.

Hi @RolStoppable Thank you very much for your comment and feedback, I think this type of conversations lead to better results.

This method is definitely a bit counter intuitive, it places much more weight to the actual month (Jan,Feb,Mar....) than to how many months the consoles have been out. This leads to this unorganized, non-linear calculation. 

Your example of the first year of PS4 vs NS is correct, however, the follow up is correct in the long run but not in the short term. Let me explain.

After the first year of the switch, it will be march again or Month (13). this month would be compared to month 17 of the PS4, so the sequence would be followed by those two values:

PS4: Month 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 1, 2. 17
Switch: Month 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. 13

eventually when it is January again, it will insert months 15 and 23 in the middle of  the line.

Let me show you this example but with a graph this is how the gap charts (launch aligned and Month aligned) look like on April 2020:

What do you think about these two graphs, they certainly tell different stories. If you look at the first one, you might think that 2020 is not treating the Switch very well and that it is taking a nosedive. But if you look at the second graph you notice pretty much the opposite, look at how steep that slope gets, it is showing remarkable growth. 

Now lets flash forward to November 2020:

Both graphs are now actually starting to show there is a big lead for the switch growing, but even still there are key differences in both:

1) The first one is that Launch shows about 8.5M lead while the Month shows about an 11.2M lead. That is quite a difference.

2) You may notice that the month chart shows a little drop at the end, what this means is that the PS4 actually had a better November than the switch, something that on the other chart goes completely unnoticed.

3) You may notice  that the Launch graph looks like a Sine wave, It has a clear pattern on when it goes up and when it goes down, while the Month graph is completely unexpected when it will drop and when it will go up. This adds a little bit of suspense to the chart.

I agree that the twelve month chart is the most straight forward chart, it has a couple of reasons why I don't think it would be best for a monthly analisis. 

1) The main issue is that it can only be viewed once a year, so it would leave us hanging for 12 months until we can see any updates, so it is not very useful during all the other months of the year.

2) It hides what happened during the year, it only shows final results, you don't know what months help contribute the most towards the total year, it is just a straight line.

Now I ask you a question, if you were to look at a comparison chart every month, what type of chart would you feel it would give you the most information to talk about? Which one would be more fun? There is really no right answer, it all comes down to personal preferences. That is why I am exploring this idea, if people enjoy it then it is good, if not, then simply it is not continued.

You did mention something that I think it is highly important to highlight and I agree 100% No matter what chart we use, it simply won't predict the future, these charts are only as good as the current month. Another great example is the really cool article @trunnkswd published on PS3+X360 vs PS4+XONE. That gap chart looks literally like a complete mountain. The incredible legs of the older consoles and the seemingly bad legs of the newer ones is leading to a complete reversal of that chart. Therefore I find your message very important, never take any data as answers or as a prediction of the future, it is only good to ask questions. Like for example why did the Ps4 sell better on its fourth november?

Thank you again for your comment and I hope we keep exchanging ideas, that is what a forum is for.