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Forums - Sales Discussion - July 17th faceoff; which will sell more, Ghost of Tsushima or Paper Mario: The Origami King?


Which will sell more?

Ghost of Tsushima 50 47.62%
Paper Mario 55 52.38%

The good part is that I wasn't aware that this Paper Mario was in development until today =p

duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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I haven't seen any news that The Origami King will be the Paper Mario that fans have been looking for since 15 years. It's hard to get proper hype for a relatively small IP when it isn't what the fans have been asking for and Paper Mario would need it to have a realistic chance at winning this sales comparison.

Ghost of Tsushima is an open world title which we know is something that sells. It doesn't look like a garbage game.

I don't see Paper Mario going above 3m whereas I see 3m as the floor for Ghost of Tsushima, so the Sony game is going to take this one. 2:1 ratio (or more) in favor of GoT, so it won't even be close.

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Dulfite said:
So are we going to star seeing Ghost Mario crossover art like we had with Doomcrossing?

Paper Mario: Ghost of the Origami King?

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 16 May 2020

Hmm, interesting comparison. I can see both titles selling 5M lifetime, so it comes down to a cointoss.

Ghosts of Tsushima probably will be more frontloaded, so expect it to win first week. But Ghost also could get a Definitive port on PS5, which would give the game a second wind and propels it ahead. On the other hand some IPs on Switch are exploding. I don't know enough to guess if Origami King might attract new userbases, but given that possibility, it might win out.

Overall it will be fun to watch how that unfolds... (hehehe)

Last edited by Mnementh - on 16 May 2020

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So are we only talking sales on PS4 only? Because I wouldn't be suprised if GoT gets a definitive edition on PS5 later on. If it does I think the two versions combined would proably win here, but otherwise I think Paper Mario will take it.
It's true that the series hasn't been a monster seller historically, but lots of Nintendo franchises have seen greater succes on the Switch than ever before. I very much think the same will be the case here, unless of course it gets a mediocre reception which cut its legs short.

Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

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I can see Paper Mario doing anywhere from 3-6m. It already grabbed me from the humour but i don't know what the gameplay is like but it looks fun.

I have no idea where Ghost will sit, but I'm not convinced it will review especially well atm (or at least to the level people expect) so I will give it to Mario. Main concern with ghost is the mechanics, the only thing that sat right with me was the Stealth stuff which Im not crazy into anyway. Arrow shooting looked unsatisfying, the loot drops felt kind of empty, the samurai combat looked confusing, almost quick time based. I'm sure it'll be great but I'm going to assume a lot of people will be on the fence like myself.

It depends on the quality of both games.

My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

We need to see more about PM but I think you guys underestimate the fact that PS4 is at the end of its life cycle and games do perform weaker most of the time.

Also the fact that I dont see much hype for GOT. And we only got 1 trailer for PM so we'll see.

This Paper Mario will easily break the franchise record (3.7m) just like Mario odyssey, Super Mario party, Mario maker 2 and Mario tennis aces broke their series records. Having said that i don't expect it to sell as well as a AAA playstation exclusive, this is paper mario after all which is one of the less popular Mario spin offs in terms of sales.

Dulfite said:
So are we going to star seeing Ghost Mario crossover art like we had with Doomcrossing?