GoT is coming out during a bad time, so late in the PS4 gen. It has the potential to do just as bad as Days Gone or as good as early Horizon sales as a new ip, but the late release doesn't help.
Don’t underestimate gaming buddy,
TLOU came out like 5 months before PS4 came out and it did exceptionally well for a new IP.
GTAV was a late release, coming out 2-3 months before “next gen” and it destroyed everyone’s expectations by a landslide, even to this date surely every kid and their parents have one each and now who is still buying the game?
Late releases can be a good thing, like a swansong for a console, the games I mentioned were very well received
Animal crossing came out during a bad time (covid19) and it blew up, I never saw the surge coming, I knew the game would sell well overtime, I know people that snapped up a switch just to play this game with their friends in isolation.