Forums - Sales Discussion - July 17th faceoff; which will sell more, Ghost of Tsushima or Paper Mario: The Origami King?

Which will sell more?

Ghost of Tsushima 50 47.62%
 
Paper Mario 55 52.38%
 
Total:105
Farsala said:

GoT is coming out during a bad time, so late in the PS4 gen. It has the potential to do just as bad as Days Gone or as good as early Horizon sales as a new ip, but the late release doesn't help.

Switch games tend to do better than their predecessors, so a 1st party Mario game should have no problem.

I will have to go with Paper Mario.

Don’t underestimate gaming buddy,

TLOU came out like 5 months before PS4 came out and it did exceptionally well for a new IP. 
GTAV was a late release, coming out 2-3 months before “next gen” and it destroyed everyone’s expectations by a landslide, even to this date surely every kid and their parents have one each and now who is still buying the game? 

Late releases can be a good thing, like a swansong for a console, the games I mentioned were very well received 

Animal crossing came out during a bad time (covid19) and it blew up, I never saw the surge coming, I knew the game would sell well overtime, I know people that snapped up a switch just to play this game with their friends in isolation.



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ZS said:
Farsala said:

GoT is coming out during a bad time, so late in the PS4 gen. It has the potential to do just as bad as Days Gone or as good as early Horizon sales as a new ip, but the late release doesn't help.

Switch games tend to do better than their predecessors, so a 1st party Mario game should have no problem.

I will have to go with Paper Mario.

Don’t underestimate gaming buddy,

TLOU came out like 5 months before PS4 came out and it did exceptionally well for a new IP. 
GTAV was a late release, coming out 2-3 months before “next gen” and it destroyed everyone’s expectations by a landslide, even to this date surely every kid and their parents have one each and now who is still buying the game? 

Late releases can be a good thing, like a swansong for a console, the games I mentioned were very well received 

Animal crossing came out during a bad time (covid19) and it blew up, I never saw the surge coming, I knew the game would sell well overtime, I know people that snapped up a switch just to play this game with their friends in isolation.

Yep but GTAV is made by Rockstar, a dev with many high selling games, and is from a top franchise. TLOU is made by ND, a dev renowned for making good games. Animal Crossing is a famous franchise that appeals to many markets.

GoT is a new ip from a dev known for making superhero games that only sell around 3m. It will do well, but not THAT well.



Farsala said:

Yep but GTAV is made by Rockstar, a dev with many high selling games, and is from a top franchise. TLOU is made by ND, a dev renowned for making good games. Animal Crossing is a famous franchise that appeals to many markets.

GoT is a new ip from a dev known for making superhero games that only sell around 3m. It will do well, but not THAT well.

that is a fair point though,

also the same could be said about Guerrilla games as Killzone is around the same mark, just depends on how well marketing is, word of mouth and the critics respond to this game, Horizon sold over 10m and Guerrilla games usually sell less than 3m, a big step up between lost and this gen. 



Switch and PS4 games, whether it’s a new IP or an established IP has exceeded most people’s expectations 



ZS said:

Switch and PS4 games, whether it’s a new IP or an established IP has exceeded most people’s expectations 

This. It could go either way IMO, depending on reviews and marketing push. I would give the edge to GoT, based on the level of hype, but then PM:TOK is a mario title on the Switch so I would not be surprised at all if it explodes. 



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I'm not buying either. I just want to say how awesome it is that franchises created during Nintendo's "failing years" (N64, GameCube, Wii U) have become such success stories. Powerhouses, even.

*Flips coin*

Paper Mario, I guess. Haven't even seen a trailer for GoT.



mZuzek loves Starfox Adventures

Metroid33slayer said:
This Paper Mario will easily break the franchise record (3.7m) just like Mario odyssey, Super Mario party, Mario maker 2 and Mario tennis aces broke their series records. Having said that i don't expect it to sell as well as a AAA playstation exclusive, this is paper mario after all which is one of the less popular Mario spin offs in terms of sales.

Add half a million to those, SPM shipped 4.2M. But I agree that Origami King should beat those numbers, and easily so if the game is any good. And if it does, it will get very difficult to beat this game for GoT



Close race! 87 votes and still only 1 point in it.

Such different games, with different points in their favour, but both quite hard to predict.

Dulfite said:
So are we going to star seeing Ghost Mario crossover art like we had with Doomcrossing?

Quite possibly, but in that case it was obvious which would win in sales. :p



I'll say it will be 50/50 because I'm getting both on day one. =P

But seriously, I think Paper Mario will sell more because Nintendo first party titles usually sell very well to a user base that's more often than not starved for major releases compared to competing consoles.





Bofferbrauer2 said:
Metroid33slayer said:
This Paper Mario will easily break the franchise record (3.7m) just like Mario odyssey, Super Mario party, Mario maker 2 and Mario tennis aces broke their series records. Having said that i don't expect it to sell as well as a AAA playstation exclusive, this is paper mario after all which is one of the less popular Mario spin offs in terms of sales.

Add half a million to those, SPM shipped 4.2M. But I agree that Origami King should beat those numbers, and easily so if the game is any good. And if it does, it will get very difficult to beat this game for GoT

The game's reveal trailer already has over 4m views and there seems to be a level of hype around this game that has never been seen before in previous games. It also probably has a month all to itself in terms of first party games and won't be crowded out in the busy holiday period. Also when Super Mario Party can sell 10m in just over a year and probably get close to 15m then you know the Mario brand is extremely strong, even the less successful ones like PM have a shot at achieving big sales. I predict a minimum of 7.5m lifetime.

Last edited by Metroid33slayer - on 20 May 2020