Forums - Sales Discussion - July 17th faceoff; which will sell more, Ghost of Tsushima or Paper Mario: The Origami King?

Which will sell more?

Ghost of Tsushima 50 47.62%
 
Paper Mario 55 52.38%
 
Total:105
Metroid33slayer said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Add half a million to those, SPM shipped 4.2M. But I agree that Origami King should beat those numbers, and easily so if the game is any good. And if it does, it will get very difficult to beat this game for GoT

The game's reveal trailer already has over 4m views and there seems to be a level of hype around this game that has never been seen before in previous games. It also probably has a month all to itself in terms of first party games and won't be crowded out in the busy holiday period. Also when Super Mario Party can sell 10m in just over a year and probably get close to 15m then you know the Mario brand is extremely strong, even the less successful ones like PM have a shot at achieving big sales. I predict a minimum of 7.5m lifetime.

I dunno, I'm just not seeing the hype myself, Paper Mario is more a series that sells to a smaller base of dedicated Nintendo fans and they seem undecided and cautious at the moment after the poor reception of the last two games in the series. Granted, this could be a much better game and will likely sell better than prior entries thanks to the Switch boost, but trailer views don't necessarily translate into sales.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 21 May 2020

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curl-6 said:
Metroid33slayer said:

The game's reveal trailer already has over 4m views and there seems to be a level of hype around this game that has never been seen before in previous games. It also probably has a month all to itself in terms of first party games and won't be crowded out in the busy holiday period. Also when Super Mario Party can sell 10m in just over a year and probably get close to 15m then you know the Mario brand is extremely strong, even the less successful ones like PM have a shot at achieving big sales. I predict a minimum of 7.5m lifetime.

I dunno, I'm just not seeing the hype myself, Paper Mario is more a series that sells to a smaller base of dedicated Nintendo fans and they seem undecided and cautious at the moment after the poor reception of the last two games in the series. Granted, this could be a much better game and will likely sell better than prior entries thanks to the Switch boost, but trailer views don't necessarily translate into high sales.

I can't think of any game that had high trailer views that was unable to deliver high sales.



newwil7l said:
curl-6 said:

I dunno, I'm just not seeing the hype myself, Paper Mario is more a series that sells to a smaller base of dedicated Nintendo fans and they seem undecided and cautious at the moment after the poor reception of the last two games in the series. Granted, this could be a much better game and will likely sell better than prior entries thanks to the Switch boost, but trailer views don't necessarily translate into high sales.

I can't think of any game that had high trailer views that was unable to deliver high sales.

Well, I'm too lazy to trawl through years of both but the two numbers do not necessarily correlate. A quick look at some Nintendo games shows some games pulling like a quarter or less than half of their trailer views. Now, I'm not saying Paper Mario sales won't be good, but 4 million trailer views don't guarantee it'll sell 7.5m plus.



Paper Mario is already charting on Eshop despite being two months out. For comparison Xenonlade DE is not even charting despite coming out a month earlier. Paper Mario at the very least seems to have much more hype than the last two games.



If we're talking short term, then I think Ghost of Tsushima. Nintendo games tend to have really good legs years into the future so Paper Mario would be my bet long term.



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Paper Mario - simply because it has the name 'Mario' in the title and Ninty fans lap those games up!

PM sent ~ CGI 

Last edited by CGI-Quality - 6 days ago

Squall_Leonhart said:
Paper Mario - simply because it has the name 'Mario' in the title and Ninty fans lap those games up!

Not necessarily; the last game, Paper Mario Colour Splash, sold under a million.



Hard to call mainly because of Ghost.

Paper Mario will prob do 5- 7 million.
Ghost is unpredictable. Its a new IP that is of course going to do well but how well. Is it going to be like Days Gone (5-7 million) or on the level of Horizon (12 million).