July 17th faceoff; which will sell more, Ghost of Tsushima or Paper Mario: The Origami King?

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Hard to call mainly because of Ghost.

Paper Mario will prob do 5- 7 million.
Ghost is unpredictable. Its a new IP that is of course going to do well but how well. Is it going to be like Days Gone (5-7 million) or on the level of Horizon (12 million).