Forums - Sales Discussion - July 17th faceoff; which will sell more, Ghost of Tsushima or Paper Mario: The Origami King?

Which will sell more?

Ghost of Tsushima 50 47.62%
 
Paper Mario 55 52.38%
 
Total:105

Paper Mario and it won’t even be close lol.

Giving me Death Stranding/Luigi’s Mansion 3 flash backs.



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Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
Shiken said:

I would not say that is interesting so much as expected.  Paper Mario was just announced, and a good number of people are thirsty for info.  Ghost however we have known about for quite some time, and many people (including myself) are already sold on the game and are just waiting for its release.

So I would say this does little to show favor one way or the other TBH.  In fact, I would go as far as to say that it would be more interesting if GoT search rates were equal to or greater than PM.

What interested me was that Paper Mario was popular in North America and the samurai game wers popular in other areas.
After all, few people have ever heard the name Tsushima. Everyone knows the Mongolian Empire.

Good point.  Additionally, Paper Mario got started on the N64 which had more relative popularity in North America compared to other regions.



I think Ghost of Tsushima will take this; it seems to have more hype behind it, while the Nintendo fanbase seems lukewarm and indecisive towards Origami King. The Switch boost should apply and I expect PMOK will still go on to be the best selling Paper Mario game to date, but the series has never been huge and I expect it'll do less than 6 million lifetime, while I think Tsushima can exceed that.

Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

After all, few people have ever heard the name Tsushima. 

I had; pivotal pre-dreadnaught battleship engagement in 1905 where Japan crushed Russia, strongly influencing the future course of naval warfare doctrine. :p



I'm most excited about Ghost of Tsushima but I think Paper Mario will sell more...unless Nintendo really screwed up.



Ghost has had more time to build up anticipation imo



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From what I’m seeing, no previous Paper Mario game has even passed 5m sales, VGC has the highest one at 3.7m on Wii, and while the Switch effect will likely have it be the biggest game in the series to date, I don’t think it can more that double the sales of the bestselling prior Paper Mario game.

Meanwhile Sony has now had 5 first party games pass 10m sales this generation; TLOU Remastered, Uncharted 4, Horizon: Zero Dawn, God of War, and Spider-Man; with GT Sport at 8m as of last June (possibly tracking to pass 10m) and Days Gone tracking to pass 10m lifetime as well I’m pretty sure. Fairly safe bet that Ghost of Tsushima will be another 10m+ seller for Sony; maybe not on PS4 alone, but PS4 sales combined with the likely eventual PS5 port will almost certainly be over 10m. So yeah, I think Ghost of Tsushima will come out on top.

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 17 May 2020

shikamaru317 said:

From what I’m seeing, no previous Paper Mario game has even passed 5m sales, VGC has the highest one at 3.7m on Wii, and while the Switch effect will likely have it be the biggest game in the series to date, I don’t think it can more that double the sales of the bestselling prior Paper Mario game.

Meanwhile Sony has now had 5 first party games pass 10m sales this generation; TLOU Remastered, Uncharted 4, Horizon: Zero Dawn, God of War, and Spider-Man; with GT Sport at 8m as of last June (possibly tracking to pass 10m) and Days Gone tracking to pass 10m lifetime as well I’m pretty sure. Fairly safe bet that Ghost of Tsushima will be another 10m+ seller for Sony; maybe not on PS4 alone, but PS4 sales combined with the likely eventual PS5 port will almost certainly be over 10m. So yeah, I think Ghost of Tsushima will come out on top.

Imagine if GT returned to form and strenght, it could hit 15M.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

it really should be got. if everything were to go as expected, pm would sell 5 ish million, and got would win the race. but... i kinda just have a gut feeling that got will underperform (due to poor reviews/wom most likely), and that PM will really overperform even the already optimistic expectations.



LimaBean01 said:
it really should be got. if everything were to go as expected, pm would sell 5 ish million, and got would win the race. but... i kinda just have a gut feeling that got will underperform (due to poor reviews/wom most likely), and that PM will really overperform even the already optimistic expectations.

I think you might've accidentally written PM instead of GoT underlined, otherwise you're contradicting yourself saying you think PM will both underperform and overperform.



GoT is coming out during a bad time, so late in the PS4 gen. It has the potential to do just as bad as Days Gone or as good as early Horizon sales as a new ip, but the late release doesn't help.

Switch games tend to do better than their predecessors, so a 1st party Mario game should have no problem.

I will have to go with Paper Mario.

Last edited by Farsala - on 19 May 2020