Hmm, interesting comparison. I can see both titles selling 5M lifetime, so it comes down to a cointoss.
Ghosts of Tsushima probably will be more frontloaded, so expect it to win first week. But Ghost also could get a Definitive port on PS5, which would give the game a second wind and propels it ahead. On the other hand some IPs on Switch are exploding. I don't know enough to guess if Origami King might attract new userbases, but given that possibility, it might win out.
Overall it will be fun to watch how that unfolds... (hehehe)