The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[XtremeBG]

Norion said:

At this point I think the only way it beats the PS2 is if Nintendo fully commits to manufacturing enough to beat the record regardless of how low demand gets so they keep shipping low amounts for the next few years to make it barely crawl there eventually. I view that scenario as extremely unlikely.

If the system is not selling enough, even if they produce small amounts, it may not be enough. I mean there is a certain point of amount it needs to be sold and shipped and produced each month and quarter in order to get there even by 2030 if you want. for example if the system is doing 5k per week worldwide for 5 years that's 20k per month roughly and that's 240k per year. That is 1.2M for 5 years, which won't be enough. For example if Switch has shipped 156M by end of March or around that number what was the actual forecast, and ship 157.5M by end of march 2027, then it will remain 2.5M more. Even if Nintendo keeps producing and selling the Switch till let's say march 2030, it will need to sell a certain amount to reach that number for those 3 remaining years. If we divide 2.5M on 36 months we get 70k. So if Switch does not sell average 70k or more per month for those 3 years (if for example the shipments are at 157.5M by march 2027), it won't get to 160M. I wrote similar post before, where my point was the same, since someone also said that if Nintendo keeps producing it it will eventually get there. No, it still may not, cuz even then it depends on what the sales actually are. It needs not only to keep producing it for a few years, but to meet certain level of sales in that time.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 15 December 2025