The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[XtremeBG]

Phenomajp13 said:

I thought I explained it well enough but I'll try again. You are free to compare whatever you want just like I'm free to critize your comparison. Javi threw out an interesting Stat because who would've thought the market leader would get trounced like this? Switch challenging PS and Xbox combined is quite surprising along with outselling PS2 (which you doubt til this very day). 

You obviously were offended and did what console warriors do, cherrypick data to form excuses to downplay. That's the whole point of your handheld market nonsense, such as 240 million consumers and only Switch can sale to them.

What makes your nonsense so apparent is the fact that you knew all of this before and still elected to doubt the Switch could outsell PS2? That makes no sense, if you always knew the Switch had these advantages such as no competition in the far larger handheld market, then why did you ever doubt the Switch could surpass PS2 with all of the Switch's advantages? It just seems like you simply made all of this nonsense up to downplay the fact that you are officially giving in and you are coping with being wrong. Your first signs of this were in another thread after the PS5 Pro price tag reveal where you state 'it (PS5 Pro) or PS5 with a price cut will not be competitive enough to stop Switch", do you recall this post? Kind of a weird post when you think about it because remember Switch has no handheld competition regardless. The post is below, what does the PS5 Pro have to do with Switch? Switch surpassing PS2 must be a real nightmare for you! So that right there was the first sign of you giving in and in this thread was your coping. Now all of a sudden the Switch has unfair advantages like the massive cherrypicked 240 million handheld market and no competition. Do you even realize how your logic isn't even consistent? You literally claim Switch has no competition in the handheld market but you were hoping better pricing on home consoles (PS5/Xbox) would negatively effect Switch's ability to outsell PS2? Are they competition or not?

XtremeBG in the PS5 Pro reveal thread: "With the facts now that there won't be price cut soon for the PS5, and even the price going up more than expected, for both XBOX and Playstation, and with having no major competition for the next 2-3 years close to a price point of 300$ I am now more inclined to believe the Switch may very well reach 160M and pass it. With those high prices from both Microsoft and Sony (new SKUs of their consoles releases not at the same price and pricecut of the old ones, but instead maintaining the old ones at the same price and launching the new ones at very high prices) I am also inclined to believe the Switch 2 will launch at least at 400$ if not more, both cases of which will result in still decent sales for the Switch 1. This was the last thing that could prevent the Switch from reaching and passing 160M (or at least make it harder) in my opinion,"

First of all, Switch is not challenging PS or XBOX directly since they are different type of machines with different audience (of course there are overlap sales but for the most part they are different). It may challenge the total sales numbers which is 175M in the future if it get's there. At this time it's not even challenging it since it's 30M+ above. It can challenge them if it gets close to the number and there is big chances to reach it or pass it. We are still far from it. Second many other people are doubting Switch reaching and beating 160M, not just me, so don't put it like I am alone vs the world, why you did not quote all the other predictions that are around PS2 and are not confirming 160M+ ? Why you have problem only with me but no anyone else predicting no 100% surety of Switch passing PS2 ? And no I was not offended, I can't be offended by some sales of consoles or some posts on a website from people I don't know. Neither the topic nor a discussion whatsoever about this can offend me, cuz it's not related to my life. I am not getting it to my heart, opposite to you as we can all see, since you jump from the smallest sentence everyone write something other than praise for the Switch.

Learn the meaning of console warrior too, it seems you don't know it. I am not cherry picking, I told you numerous times, it's @javi741 's post first that quoted PS and XBOX, not me, I just answered on the same example. I also gave an example with the 7th gen, because the handheld console market was at it's peak back then, and so it was bigger than what is now. Which is a fact. This is not cherry picking it's the obvious. It's not nonsense, it's the real thing. And I am putting it this way in no correlation to the Switch, but to answer @javi741 's post, and give another point of view, that if we compare handheld market as a whole it has seen more hardware sales before therefore it's not mind blowing, for the handheld market in general. This was simply my claim. Of course as a single console for the Switch, reaching even 120-140M is mind blowing, since only 2 consoles have done, that, let alone reaching 150-160M. I already wrote that even before you started posting. No one is denying that. I simply make a statement about the handheld market in general. What is your problem here ? I even didn't touch on the Switch itself. My post was not pointed directly to the Switch. You turn it in a way it was.

Me always knowing Switch has the handheld market for itself does not mean I can't doubt how much it will sell or make predictions, as anyone can. You can't make predictions simply on one fact, There are many many factors, when you make estimation on a given system how well it will sell or it won't sell. Given the factors over the years everyone can make and adjust their predictions based on what is happening with these factors. I will tell it again, Many people doubted Switch reaching 100M, 120M, 150M, PS2 numbers, why won't you get in debate with them about that specifically but you get in debate with me about it and put it like I am the only one in the world, doubting if Switch will pass PS2 or not ?

Also I am not giving up on anything. This is not a fight that you can give up or win, this is not losing or winning, are we in boxing or what ? Again, you are taking this whole thing as a personal target or personal hobby, I can't really understand, It's simply opinions on people you don't know, written in a gaming forum. Why it's bothering you so much ? And if it's losing or winning, then almost all of the people here must be losing the fight since the number Switch will finish when it's discontinued will probably be different than almost all predictions made here over the years, and since almost everyone changing and adjusting their estimates overtime, they are all losing the fight ? And no, if Switch ends up beating PS2 it won't be nightmare for me, since I don't care so much for it, to put energy or feelings into this, as you do. It is simply an opinion and prediction, made back when the delay of the Switch 2 wasn't there, and everyone expected Switch successor at 2024 at the latest, and there were even people expected it in 2023. Which as we can see would be more than sure to happen since, now without successor in late 2024 Switch is still at 18M below the 160M let alone if the successor launched this year or last year. So you can't blame me for nothing.

On the topic itself, Switch is still more than 15M+ away from 160M, and you being so sure about thing that didn't happen and it's very depending on what company that you don't have finger in, will do, is not speaking well for yourself. I recall the post I made and I stand for it. The PS5 pro price, is not connected directly to Switch sales. But you of course didn't get the idea. Other companies putting higher prices on their consoles, and not doing price cuts on their current models is meaning Nintendo is less likely to put lower price on Switch's successor (which will result in better sales for Switch 1). Them not competing directly does not mean there are no sales that overlap or can be switch from one to the other, and Nintendo needs to be somewhat competitive with the rest of the gaming market (Sony and Microsoft). I've always said that if the one system didn't exist, the sales on the other would have been higher. The difference may not be mind-blowing but it would still be there. They are not competing in the handheld market, that's why they are not direct competitors. But they compete in the gaming market. In the gaming market, includes the handheld console market too. So illustrate it for yourself like this, (just giving example with random numbers, not related to the real portion of how much are in what market) if 20 people are in the gaming market, 10 of them are in handheld and 10 in the home console one. In the 10 people in handheld market there are no PS and XBOX since handhelds are purely Nintendo's since 2017. So for this handheld market to remain at it's 10 people and not become let's say 5 people vs 15 for the home market, Nintendo needs to be somewhat competitive (showing good system, support, games, marketing, prices and etc.). Sony and Microsoft on the other side need the same too, so that the home market can stay to at least the same 10 people. (So far their sales are equal with the previous gen, in this generation, but it's questionable if they can maintain that level to the end of the gen). If Nintendo for example launch Switch 2, and this system ends let's say at mediocre level of sales (in comparison to Switch 1) let's say 50M or 70M the handheld part would become 5 people in our example and the home market would become 15 people, because those other 5 people that bought Switch 1 and didn't bought Switch 2, would went to the home market since they are not all happy with the Switch 2 and want to play games on other system. However Sony and Microsoft still wouldn't be direct competitors to Nintendo since the handheld market of 5 people would still be 100% Nintendo's, since they are the only ones making handhelds. (yes hybrid system, but it covers the handheld market too, opposite to PS and XBOX). But the will still be competitiors in the gaming market since Nintendo would have 5 people and Sony and Microsoft 15. Did you get the idea now ? Not direct competitors in the handheld market, but competitors in the gaming market as a whole.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 25 September 2024