Famitsu Sales: Week 52 & 53, 2023 (Dec 18 - Dec 31)

[XtremeBG]

I may add also that first " eating a crow " is meaning what ? to admit I was wrong about my original 3M to 3.5M range? The post itself I wrote that I can see the Switch reaching 4M is enough to show and prove that I am admitting my original prediction was going to be wrong, cuz I am changing it. So it's the same thing as going out and say " See people my original prediction was wrong".

Second, Some of the people (and no, not only @Phenomajp13, but others as well, @curl-6 and etc.) act like that my prediction was pessimistic all the way from beginning and was like 100% sure that Switch was going to sell better than that. It is normal to expect for a system coming in it's 7th year, from it's 6th year selling 4.7M to drop a little, and 3 to 3.5M is a normal, medium drop for it's next year. It is the normal path on such an old system. So the exception here is actually the end result of 4M. The result because of the TOTK boost. This is the anomaly here, not my original prediction. Just because some people love the Switch, or wanted to sell more, does not make 4M prediction after 4.7M in it's 7 year normal or not high ball. It was high ball and it wasn't very adequate when you have the previous consoles's data back in history how and what they performed in theirs 7th year. So again the anomaly here, the exception, the miracle if you want was the end result that happened. Cuz Switch wasn't supposed to sell 4M in it's 7th year in Japan. A system that old and a system that was 27M lifetime which should be close to saturation point. This is not something you see everytime, or anytime for that matter. The normal way of continuing it's sales was a normal drop to the range I originally posted 3 to 3.5M and that was okay. That was still a good sales for 7th year. So some people, don't act or say it like it wasn't an okay prediction based on the history of previous consoles in japan, and based on the normal trajectory console should have in it's 7th year. I was wrong, but not because my prediction was pessimistic. It got pessimistic in the end, cuz of the end result, But it was realistic preditiction. not Pesimistic one, not optimistic one. Lower than the normal for 7th year you can call pessimistic, like if I said 2M for example. That would be the real pesimistic prediction. 4M was optimistic and high ball for the time being and for a trajectory often consoles have in their 7th year compare to their 5th and 6th years and their last years on the market in general, cuz yes, 7th year can be counted as one of the last years in a console's life.

So please make a difference. There are 3 types of levels, not only 2 as there are often written here (pessimistic and optimisitc) there is realistic too, that is the more natural one and it is in the middle.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 17 January 2024