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Forums - Sales - August 2025 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

trunkswd said:
CourageTCD said:

I simply don't get why is it that Circana is so problematic some months. Famitsu reveals video game sales number without delays. I know Japan is way smaller than the US, but I think that, by now, Circana should already have the means to get these data easier

Circana tracks like 97% of the US market so they have all the data. They just don't always reveal the sales numbers or provide enough information to be able to get with in a few % of the actual numbers. 

Sony and Nintendo released their data until the end of June with 80.3 million for the PS5 and the Switch 1 at 153.10 million, so you can get an idea of ​​the number until the end of August, but the Xbox numbers are difficult to know



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So what now ? we all waited till Oct. 8 for the data, and now Oct. 8 passed and we don't have any data ?

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 09 October 2025

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jvmkdg said:
trunkswd said:

Circana tracks like 97% of the US market so they have all the data. They just don't always reveal the sales numbers or provide enough information to be able to get with in a few % of the actual numbers. 

Sony and Nintendo released their data until the end of June with 80.3 million for the PS5 and the Switch 1 at 153.10 million, so you can get an idea of ​​the number until the end of August, but the Xbox numbers are difficult to know

Those numbers have very little relevance to each other actually for several different reasons. 

1. Those numbers (153.10 for Switch & 80.3 for PS5) are shipped/sold ie shipped consoles to retailers while August Circana numbers are estimating sold to consumers numbers. 

2. Those numbers don't even fit the same time. As you stated, those numbers for Switch and PS5 are as of June 30th 2025, while August Circana numbers are after this period. Of course some of those shipped consoles will be sold to consumers in August 2025 but there really isn't much of a Direct relationship here that could help us determine how many consoles were sold in August besides just using these figures to predict what we think which seems impossible.

Long story short, the fiscal year prediction for both might be better at predicting August Circana because it atleast covers this period (it covers the entire fiscal year) and you would just need to predict how much per quarter a console ships (alittle easier since Q1 has already been revealed and Q3 is a holiday quarter so will have a large percentage of the entire fiscal year result). Ofcourse you still need to predict per region a console ships because August Circana only reports US along with Canada I think while a consoles quarterly shipments are global.

Basically yes its very difficult to predict August Circana without the reports.



Phenomajp13 said:
jvmkdg said:

Sony and Nintendo released their data until the end of June with 80.3 million for the PS5 and the Switch 1 at 153.10 million, so you can get an idea of ​​the number until the end of August, but the Xbox numbers are difficult to know

Those numbers have very little relevance to each other actually for several different reasons. 

1. Those numbers (153.10 for Switch & 80.3 for PS5) are shipped/sold ie shipped consoles to retailers while August Circana numbers are estimating sold to consumers numbers. 

2. Those numbers don't even fit the same time. As you stated, those numbers for Switch and PS5 are as of June 30th 2025, while August Circana numbers are after this period. Of course some of those shipped consoles will be sold to consumers in August 2025 but there really isn't much of a Direct relationship here that could help us determine how many consoles were sold in August besides just using these figures to predict what we think which seems impossible.

Long story short, the fiscal year prediction for both might be better at predicting August Circana because it atleast covers this period (it covers the entire fiscal year) and you would just need to predict how much per quarter a console ships (alittle easier since Q1 has already been revealed and Q3 is a holiday quarter so will have a large percentage of the entire fiscal year result). Ofcourse you still need to predict per region a console ships because August Circana only reports US along with Canada I think while a consoles quarterly shipments are global.

Basically yes its very difficult to predict August Circana without the reports.

Yes, the numbers from Sony and Nintendo are global numbers, but with this you can get an idea of ​​how far the PS5 can reach in global sales. I believe the PS5 will take about 3 months or almost 3 months to reach these numbers of 80.3, while the Switch would take a little more, about 4 months, since it has already been replaced by a new console.



trunkswd said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Mario Kart World is not even in Nintendo's personal top 10. People must only be getting it in the bundle.

Over 80% are from the bundle. 

I wouldn't be surprised if it was closer to 90% than 80%.  Not making Nintendo's personal top 10 says a lot for Switch 2's flagship game.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
trunkswd said:

Over 80% are from the bundle. 

I wouldn't be surprised if it was closer to 90% than 80%.  Not making Nintendo's personal top 10 says a lot for Switch 2's flagship game.

From Circana's Mat Piscatella: "The bundle accounts for over 80% of Switch 2 hardware sales, so the math from there kind of makes it impossible for standalone physical World sales to chart."

https://bsky.app/profile/matpiscatella.bsky.social/post/3m2oruqg6vc2u



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news. Follow me on Bluesky.

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Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it was closer to 90% than 80%.  Not making Nintendo's personal top 10 says a lot for Switch 2's flagship game.

From Circana's Mat Piscatella: "The bundle accounts for over 80% of Switch 2 hardware sales, so the math from there kind of makes it impossible for standalone physical World sales to chart."

https://bsky.app/profile/matpiscatella.bsky.social/post/3m2oruqg6vc2u

80%+ of Switch 2 sales are the bundle.  That doesn't mean that 80% of MKW sales are in the bundle.  If the people who buy an unbundled Switch 2 don't get MKW, then that means that 100% of MKW sales are in the bundle.  I'm sure that is not absolutely the case, but it can definitely mean that 90%+ of MKW sales are in the bundle.

Example 1
Switch 2 (unbundled): 200k
Switch 2 (bundled): 800k
MKW sales: 800k

This would mean 80% of Switch 2 hardware sales are the bundle and 100% of MKW sales are in the bundle.


Example 2
Switch 2 (unbundled): 200k
Switch 2 (bundled): 800k
MKW sales: 850k

Here 94% of MKW sales are in the bundle.

Basically 80% of Switch 2 sales are the bundle, but MKW physical sales are so low that it can't even make Nintendo's top 10 with the Switch 2 selling a lot of hardware.  The people buying the unbundled Switch 2 just aren't getting Mario Kart.