August 2025 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

[The_Liquid_Laser]

trunkswd said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it was closer to 90% than 80%.  Not making Nintendo's personal top 10 says a lot for Switch 2's flagship game.

From Circana's Mat Piscatella: "The bundle accounts for over 80% of Switch 2 hardware sales, so the math from there kind of makes it impossible for standalone physical World sales to chart."

https://bsky.app/profile/matpiscatella.bsky.social/post/3m2oruqg6vc2u

80%+ of Switch 2 sales are the bundle.  That doesn't mean that 80% of MKW sales are in the bundle.  If the people who buy an unbundled Switch 2 don't get MKW, then that means that 100% of MKW sales are in the bundle.  I'm sure that is not absolutely the case, but it can definitely mean that 90%+ of MKW sales are in the bundle.

Example 1
Switch 2 (unbundled): 200k
Switch 2 (bundled): 800k
MKW sales: 800k

This would mean 80% of Switch 2 hardware sales are the bundle and 100% of MKW sales are in the bundle.

Example 2
Switch 2 (unbundled): 200k
Switch 2 (bundled): 800k
MKW sales: 850k

Here 94% of MKW sales are in the bundle.

Basically 80% of Switch 2 sales are the bundle, but MKW physical sales are so low that it can't even make Nintendo's top 10 with the Switch 2 selling a lot of hardware.  The people buying the unbundled Switch 2 just aren't getting Mario Kart.