Yeah that should give some boost the week it comes out but since it's a "2D" remake of a really old game and the Switch is over 30m the impact should be a lot lower compared to what DQ 12 will do for the PS5 and Switch 2 and won't change the overall pace of the last stretch to a notable degree.

Xbox Series is too all over the place for me to make any concrete predictions but somewhere between 100-200k should happen.

The thing is that even a bit lower than last year would put that high out of reach. 3m is the upper limit of what it can do this year I think since it'd have to be at like 2.7m by week 45 to finish 200k higher and its pace this year doesn't point to that happening.

Wooheee ! Sales are so similar to last week that we gotta play the spot the differences game here.

Software though, some titles did get 30% boost inexplicably but hey all's good when you see how the Switch still cruises with it's 2nd year and 3 year numbers.

How did you come up with that PS5 number? For it to only sell 1.4m it would avg only 20k for the rest of the year. You forgot that it's been avg just over 30k so far and also there's still the holiday 

(edit: for whatever reason, my brain stopped functioning and thought Pinkie Pie was responding to a post from me. I was thinking I posted projections…pls ignore this response lmao. Pinkie’s fighting for his life on these Japanese sales charts tho.)

Average from the most recent couple of months is closer to 20k than it is 30k. Additionally, just by glancing at the latter-half-of-the-year figures from PS5 during 2021/22/23, it does seem that the average does tend to drop. So 18-22k/week is not a terribly inaccurate prediction (note that 1.4mil typically means 1.37-1.43mil)…though it is certainly a bit pessimistic.

I looked at Shadowlink summary. PS5 is at 56% compared to last year YTD (0.94M vs. 1.67M). The total for 2023 was 2.59 million. If this trend continues being 56% we end up at 1.45 million. There were some unusual slow weeks in 2023 for PS5, but 2023 was also a 53 week year. 2024 is not. So I wrote down 1.4. But I could also have wrote 1.5. In my opinion it will be in that ballpark.

And what about the trend for the switch? It was 2.4m this time last year and sold 1.6m for the remainder of the year. Somehow you think it could sold the same as last year when it's down by 800k so far this year. 

Switch is little ahead of the DS 2.8M year, but the DS's holiday is probably gonna be stronger, so Switch should finish at somewhere around 2.5M

And how do you come up with the switch ending up at 3.2m for the year? Switch average usually goes up ? That didn't happen last year. It was 2.4m this time last year and sold another 1.6m for the year. Somehow you think it could sell another 1.6m for this year 

Last year Switch sold 4million plus, I'm not thinking that it will sell that much this year.

I am comparing to 2018. Currently it's 200K ahead. I do not expect Switch to get 2018 holiday numbers though. So I'm trying to guesstimate how much it will lose this Q4 against 2018 Q4.

The big difference is that in 2018 Switch was 1 model, Switch now has 3. Typically the cheaper Lite model does well in summer and holiday. This week it was 23% of all Switch sales.

I guesstimate it would loose 0.5million in Q4 compared to 2018. But I also see the Zelda special edition to add 100K this calendar year to fans and collectors, making the net impact 400K.

So taking the 2018 total of 3.48 total. Deducting 400K. Then adding the 200K lead thus far. I get to 3.2million.

Again my opinion. But I did give this some though. Might be wrong, we will see.

edit. Duplicate