Xbox is kneecapped by selling next to nothing in Europe and Japan, combined with declining sales in the US which is the only market it can sell their consoles in any major numbers just spells disaster.

It will likely do like 4 million units in 2025 total (imo).
So sometime in 2027, it should break 40m.

Depending on how soon they plan to replace it, with a newer console.
There is a honest chance it doesn't ever make it to 40m.

You're probably underestimating GTA6's effect. This game may sell every single Xbox and Playstation available for several months. Doubtful Sony will be able to produce enough consoles to meet demand too soon, so it's an opportunity for Microsoft to maximize sales and potentially sell every console they produce too.

If GTA6 is launched before October, both consoles might go up year over year. No one is ready for the demand levels of this game! Especially if the consoles get permanent pricecuts.

If we have PS5 making 4M in a non December month, and the XBSX getting to almost 800k, imagine what would it be if we repeat the same thing but with GTA 6 released. So if GTA 6 releases by the holidays this year let's say at the first days of November, imagine what November we may have.

Sony has far more units in the channel than Microsoft because PS5 is selling over five times what Series does. That means that whatever demand is generated by GTA VI is going to be gobbled up by Sony and its channel capable of delivering 4 million units in a month worldwide. Microsoft can't even dream of that when it's doing 4 million units in a year.

Besides that, it's abundantly clear that Microsoft doesn't give a damn about selling consoles anymore or they would have put theirs on sale this BF and holidays so I don't think they are going to make any preparations for GTA VI when there's a risk that stock could remain unsold for many quarters.

GTA is about 7 times bigger now than it was before GTA5's launch. 4 million units a month isn't gonna be enough for a game capable of selling a lot more than Xbox and Playstation combined (remember it's not releasing on PC at launch, enhancing its console selling power). MS would be dumb not to take this opportunity. We also shouldn't rule out that they will win the marketing rights, but I don't think that's necessary.

GTA6 will be the most significant game launch in history and by a huge margin.

The reason MS stopped doing these kinds of deals is because the results were underwhelming and the PS5 dominated regardless. You can't sell what people just don't want, no many were hyped for the Series S. However Series X/S with GTA6 is something people are prepared to buy even if the console doesn't interest them much. When Sony struggled with stock, Series X/S was doing okay, decent enough to mislead people into thinking it was doing great and stealing mindshare. If PS5 keeps selling out, GTA fans will want an Xbox, and Xbox sales could explode for a few months.

Do you understand that you are basing all your assumptions on Microsoft not being dumb and Sony somehow screwing up the biggest launch of the generation? And even then, with Microsoft stocking far over a year's worth of units, they'd be there for the crumbs. Sony can stock up for GTA VI as if it was BF/holiday season or even more depending on the hype and they'd still sell them sooner or later. Microsoft just can't do that, they'd risk sitting with unsold inventory for quarters upon quarters if not forever.

As of now, no release of any game has increased demand for Xbox; Not Starfield, not CoD. So GTA 6 seems like it will mainly boost PS5 sales while it does minimal positives for Xbox, except maybe it boost Xbox somewhat in the US market. But in every other market PS5 will get almost all the boost from GTA 6 due to the weakness of Xbox outside the US.

I no longer think Xbox will get to 40 million.

1) They can only rely on North American sales alone, as the Europe and Asian markets for Xbox have collapsed.
2) Outside of the big holidays, they average at 300k a month and this is on a downward trend.
3) There is definitely a feeling in the gaming community at large that most Xbox games are now going to come to the PS5. This fuels the idea that PS5 is the place to get ALL the non-Nintendo games.

When I think about these three factors, I doubt Xbox can crack 40 million.

I also want to add what I think will be the deciding factor; GTA 6.
GTA 6 is going to be by far the biggest entertainment release not just of the year, but maybe the decade. Players are foaming for this title, the media can't stop printing stories on it, and other game releases are being moved around so they don't release near it. It's going to be huge and we all know it.

I'm sure Microsoft is hoping to see a sales bump in hardware once GTA 6 comes out. But I think they are expecting a HUGE hardware sales bump. if they get it, then they will continue on as they are.

If they don't get the huge GTA 6 bump, and most traffic goes to the PS5, Microsoft will pull the plug on the hardware.

Xbox is still crossing 40 million mark with current sales, assuming new Xbox comes out in 2027 or even 2028

It only needs 8.8 million copies, there is more than enough time to sell that much