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Kyuu said:

GTA is about 7 times bigger now than it was before GTA5's launch. 4 million units a month isn't gonna be enough for a game capable of selling a lot more than Xbox and Playstation combined (remember it's not releasing on PC at launch, enhancing its console selling power). MS would be dumb not to take this opportunity. We also shouldn't rule out that they will win the marketing rights, but I don't think that's necessary.

GTA6 will be the most significant game launch in history and by a huge margin.

The reason MS stopped doing these kinds of deals is because the results were underwhelming and the PS5 dominated regardless. You can't sell what people just don't want, no many were hyped for the Series S. However Series X/S with GTA6 is something people are prepared to buy even if the console doesn't interest them much. When Sony struggled with stock, Series X/S was doing okay, decent enough to mislead people into thinking it was doing great and stealing mindshare. If PS5 keeps selling out, GTA fans will want an Xbox, and Xbox sales could explode for a few months.

Do you understand that you are basing all your assumptions on Microsoft not being dumb and Sony somehow screwing up the biggest launch of the generation? And even then, with Microsoft stocking far over a year's worth of units, they'd be there for the crumbs. Sony can stock up for GTA VI as if it was BF/holiday season or even more depending on the hype and they'd still sell them sooner or later. Microsoft just can't do that, they'd risk sitting with unsold inventory for quarters upon quarters if not forever.