Difference is GTA 5 came out just 2 months before xbox one released. GTA 6 will release on xbox series sometime next year. Even if it's delayed to early 2026 it still has at least half a year before next xbox releases . We can all agree next xbox isn't coming out next year. Most likely end of 2026 the earliest . And farther more there was GTA 4 on 360 so most already bought 360 for GTA 5. And There's more hype for GTA 6 than 5 because it's been a long wait. GTA title was releasing every 3-4 years. It's been over a decade since GTA 5 came out

If at all.  

Then that would definitely help xbox series sales even more but yeah GTA 6 will be on xbox series for probably a year before next xbox (if at all) releases 

GTA 6 is coming in 2026. I don't know why many people really believe the first announced date will be real. How many times Rockstar delayed their games ? How many times in general big games are delayed ? Also, the difference between announce and release of GTA 5 was almost 2 years. It is normal that more than 10 years later, with much much harder and slower development of games, GTA 6 will have bigger gap between announce and release. GTA 6 first trailer and it's official announcement was at the end of 2023, therefore end of 2025 is 2 years. If the gap is bigger and if delay happenes (as it happens pretty much everytime for big games, and especially rockstar ones) then the game is launching 2026. The chances of this happening are pretty big. And if for real the next xbox is here in 2026, it just might be around the time the game launches. Why not market it even as the best version possible, better than the PS5 Pro, and selling it in a bundle with the new system?

Sales are dropping off very hard.

The Wii U had monthly sales of between 100k and 200k outside of holidays and some big releases which pushed it past 200k at times. The last months (April and May) of the XS are just above 200k with 205k and 231k respectively, and sales are dropping further. Now compare those two months with those of the last 2 years for both the XS and the corresponding  Wii U years and you get this:

As you can see, the XS had a very healthy lead over the Wii U numbers in 2022, but sales are breaking away very fast. It still has a lead over Wii U sales but we're already down to less than double when before monthly sales were over 4 times those of the Wii U. Unless Microsoft can stop hemorrhaging sales then by end of the year the monthly sales will start to be very close to the one of the Wii U. it's only real saving grace right now is that XS holiday sales are about twice of those of the Wii U, which can make a difference, but we'll have to see what it can reach this coming holiday with the sales dropping so fast.

If that were to happen, then the XS has no chance of clearing the 40M mark. But if Microsoft manages to turn the ship around, then they will be able to reach 40-45M. I don't believe they will be able to sell over 45M as the decline has already been too strong imo to reach higher than that.

It's not about underestimating the popularity of the game. But perhaps understimating the number of GTA fans who already picked up a current gen system for COD, etc.

I think holdouts are mainly people who are into the less big titles, and niche titles. In particularly Playstation players, because Playstation 4 still gets most of those games to this day. And we recently saw Sony's report where they showed that half of their userbase is still playing on PS4.



Resident Evil 4 Remake for examle came out on PS4, but not for Xbox One. And that has been a trend. So there has been more of an incentive for Xbox players to upgrade to a current gen system.
But I think there's a big overlap between GTA players and other massively popular 'casual games', and several noteworthy titles from that category have been current gen only.

Also, I was under the impression that GTA6 was slated for 2026. But I guess we will see if they manage to release it in time.

Combined sales of PS3/360 is 170m. GTA 5 did 50m on PS3/360 with attach rate of 30%. Current PS5/series combined sales is around 90m . There's more hype for GTA 6 than GTA 5 because the thing is much bigger now and it's been over a decade since GTA 5. I'm predicting GTA 6 will also sell 50m on PS5 and xbox series.  Surely it can't sell 50m on just 90m consoles so I don't think all GTA fans already bought a PS5 or Xbox series.  Remember Xbox360 sold another 5m after GTA 5 came out and that's when they already had GTA 4. Also Xbox one came out only 2 months after GTA5 

The current realities of the market have also changed since then, other genres and games have taken place in the crowded gaming space, the PC space has grown and gas arguably eaten shares I to the traditional console market. There's still a reasonable doubt over the type of success you speak of.

Nonetheless, the game will launch BIG. Let's see first once we're there if it gets that big or it is just partly an internet bubble thing.

Right but Xbox 360 was a massively popular console to the point where it was in the lead over PS3 for a while, and ended up sharing the market share with PS3 50/50 in the end.

How do you account for the difference in market share now when you estimate how many Xbox consoles specifically will be sold due to this game?

It's currently at 2:1 for PS5, and the way things are going it looks like that is expanding every month.
PC has also grown a lot since those days.

FYI, this isn't a prediction for whether Xbox Series will reach 40m from me.
I have no prediction for that, but some people wanted to discuss what you said in the Famitsu thread elsewhere, so we moved that discussion here.

They should raise the price of the Series X to 1000 bucks and the Series S to 700 in the US.  Nothing sells consoles better than price hikes.  The traditional way. How PS2 got to sell so many right?