Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

[Mar1217]

Pinkie_pie said:

Hiku said:

It's not about underestimating the popularity of the game. But perhaps understimating the number of GTA fans who already picked up a current gen system for COD, etc.

I think holdouts are mainly people who are into the less big titles, and niche titles. In particularly Playstation players, because Playstation 4 still gets most of those games to this day. And we recently saw Sony's report where they showed that half of their userbase is still playing on PS4.



Resident Evil 4 Remake for examle came out on PS4, but not for Xbox One. And that has been a trend. So there has been more of an incentive for Xbox players to upgrade to a current gen system.
But I think there's a big overlap between GTA players and other massively popular 'casual games', and several noteworthy titles from that category have been current gen only.

Also, I was under the impression that GTA6 was slated for 2026. But I guess we will see if they manage to release it in time.

Combined sales of PS3/360 is 170m. GTA 5 did 50m on PS3/360 with attach rate of 30%. Current PS5/series combined sales is around 90m . There's more hype for GTA 6 than GTA 5 because the thing is much bigger now and it's been over a decade since GTA 5. I'm predicting GTA 6 will also sell 50m on PS5 and xbox series.  Surely it can't sell 50m on just 90m consoles so I don't think all GTA fans already bought a PS5 or Xbox series.  Remember Xbox360 sold another 5m after GTA 5 came out and that's when they already had GTA 4. Also Xbox one came out only 2 months after GTA5 

The current realities of the market have also changed since then, other genres and games have taken place in the crowded gaming space, the PC space has grown and gas arguably eaten shares I to the traditional console market. There's still a reasonable doubt over the type of success you speak of.

Nonetheless, the game will launch BIG. Let's see first once we're there if it gets that big or it is just partly an internet bubble thing.