Could be possible. But shippment will be 150 million + minimum. I have a hard time believing Nintendo shipped less than 4 million in Q3.

I am 50/50 on that. It should be around 150M. We will find out soon enough when the report comes out at the start of February.

Don't we still need Europe and the rest of the world sales data?

We need only Europe data. Trunks adds the rest of the world data when the Japan data becomes available. So that number - 147.88M now is with the rest of the world numbers added. For December the rest of the world is at 480k.

For me its out of question. 150 million has been surpassed. Anything else would be a bad surprise... i am not excluding the possibility of over/ undertracking as well.

Yeah, with sales around 148.5M the shipments should be above 150M. I meant that it's 50/50 for me about how much above that they are. Normally the shipped units are 2.5-3M more, but now with the successor's announced Nintendo will probably start to ship less and less over the sold units then before. So I expect the difference to become 1-1.5M for the time being and once the successor launches depending on the prices and the sales pace Switch 1 is doing, they can change it once again.

I do wonder, how are Nintendo's shipments to the Americas so much higher than the sellthrough reported by vgc? Are there regions included in the Americas that vgc has a hardtime tracking?

Of course once the sucessor is out they will ship less. But we are still in december 2024. No sucessor was announced back then. We have to take this into account. This quater of course is a different story but Nintendo will want to make shure they reach at least their revised FC that shareholders are satisfied. I could even see some overshipping.

Correct me if I'm wrong but Welfare has already shown us data that the announcement of a successor has never negatively impacted a predecessor. It's the release of a successor is when we see the biggest impact.

@XtremeBG How much did Switch sale in Europe last December? I ask because i really dont understand how to use the tool but maybe thats because im on mobile. Switch seems to be holding on better in Eu (15% down in many Eu nations) and Japan than the US. Maybe Eu's current economic situation is the cause of this.