I agree.  With Switch at  151m - 152m by March 2025 and coming off of a 10m - 11m year, it's very likely that the system makes it to 160m in the end.

It depends how long the Switch continues. I can see at least the Switch Lite soldier on for another 4/5 years of so. It's not the most popular Switch model, but it will get a solid 2 million sales a year thanks to it's price and aimed as 2nd or 3rth Switch for the youngest family members.

The big question though is when will Nintendo stop reporting on Switch numbers. I expect a PS4 situation where PlayStation stopped reporting numbers, but continues to ship consoles for years.

That means it will get messy to determine were the Switch will end up in the end. If the latest official Sony number for PS2 of 155 million is challenged to be to low, how are we going to handle the Switch numbers after they stop reporting on it?

Nintendo has no history at all of not reporting though. You are also grossly overestimating how much Sony consoles sale after Sony stops reporting. PS2 only has its finally year of life not reported in the 155 and that certainly isn't as much as you think. Sony has a knack for announcing their 10 increments, they reported when the PS2 crossed 150 million and never announced 160 million. This is why most people are putting Switch's goal at 160 million, its the only for sure way to say any platform surpassed PS2.

The Famicom shipped till the early 2000. I don't remember Nintendo updating the Famicom/NES numbers for so long.

What happens when the Switch reaches 157.5 million? We will have discussions till the end of times.

This NeoGAF thread with compiled Nintendo shipment numbers says otherwise:

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/nintendo-historical-shipment-data-1983-present.701305/

Famicom numbers were reported up until March 2004, so until the very end.

And while Switch might not get a full breakdown of its shipment numbers for all four regions in Nintendo's financial report until the very end (which will probably the case when yearly global shipments fall below 1-2m units), there's always this page that has seen updates outside of their financial reports:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

So it's pretty safe to assume that we'll know Switch's final hardware and software shipments.

They might phase it out quickly in favour of its successor though, so it might be a PS4 situation where it only sells a few million after replacement.

I was hoping Switch 2 would have a 2-3 year head start on the next Xbox/PS, just like the Switch 1 did in 2017 with the HD twins not releasing their next gen until 2020, but with rumors of Switch 2 pushing to 2025 and rumors of the next Xbox being sometime in 2026 it's looking like Switch 2 won't have that "What's the freshest device on the market" hype for as long as its predecessor, which is a shame.

You say that as if the console market as a whole would still care about the Xbox brand. 2023 has been more or less the peak sales performance for the Xbox Series and yet it was still outsold roughly 2:1 by an aging Switch.

Hmm, what that is reminding me of ? Wii U..

On the topic itself, 2025 launch is still just a rumour. I don't know why everyone didn't believe and doubt the 2024 launch, but now when a rumour of 2025 launch get's out all of a sudden everyone pretends like it's a lock 100%. Everything can happen, and everything can change. Just like the 2024 rumour was countered with the recent 2025 rumour, the same way after few days it can be countered again with 2024 rumour, or even 2026 rumour and let's say Switch Pro for this year holiday for example. Don't be so sure and lock on to only one scenario. Unless Nintendo come out and announce something officialy, it can go either way. They can announce it tomorrow for launching this summer, they can announce it after 2 months and launching end of the year, then can wait till 2025 for launch, they can wait for the next year's holiday as well. They can even wait for 2026 if they want. All you see now is just a rumours. So don't take it as a clear coin.

If Xbox S2 launches in 2026, then it is highly likely PS6 will also launch that year. Either way, NS2 won't feel as exciting for the casuals when those two launch. NS1 had 2.5-3 years of being the newest major console on the market before competition released XS and PS5.

I just think Nintendo is crippling their long term sales potential of NS2 hardware by not releasing it this year. I'd be happy to eat my words by 2031 if it happens.