If Xbox S2 launches in 2026, then it is highly likely PS6 will also launch that year. Either way, NS2 won't feel as exciting for the casuals when those two launch. NS1 had 2.5-3 years of being the newest major console on the market before competition released XS and PS5.

I just think Nintendo is crippling their long term sales potential of NS2 hardware by not releasing it this year. I'd be happy to eat my words by 2031 if it happens. 

Is there anything behind these Xbox 2026 rumors or is it just baseless, “Xbox isn’t doing good so they should get a head start next time” speculation?

On the topic itself, 2025 launch is still just a rumour. I don't know why everyone didn't believe and doubt the 2024 launch, but now when a rumour of 2025 launch get's out all of a sudden everyone pretends like it's a lock 100%. Everything can happen, and everything can change.

There aren't. But assuming they are doing worse than even the XB1, they might try to repeat the 360 scenario with a year or even 2 years ahead of PS6 launch.

Well, it was reliable enough to have Nintendo's shares drop more than 4% this Monday (recovering from an initial 8% drop). So there was likely fire to this smoke.

Wasn't that more about the PS3 being late rather than the X360 being early, though? Considering both were designed with similar-specced tech in mind except for the disc drive.

An early launch for the next Xbox would be more like the Mega Drive or the Dreamcast... neither of which really worked in the end.

If Xbox S2 launches in 2026, then it is highly likely PS6 will also launch that year. Either way, NS2 won't feel as exciting for the casuals when those two launch. NS1 had 2.5-3 years of being the newest major console on the market before competition released XS and PS5.

I just think Nintendo is crippling their long term sales potential of NS2 hardware by not releasing it this year. I'd be happy to eat my words by 2031 if it happens. 

The specs were similar in power but, unless I am mistaken, Microsoft did explicitly rush the 360 launch to beat the PS3 to the market.

They might phase it out quickly in favour of its successor though, so it might be a PS4 situation where it only sells a few million after replacement.

You still can buy a new PS4 Slim (and a PS4 Pro at least here in Europe and I guess in NA too). Sony just refused to give them price cuts. Anyway, Nintendo doesn't give a damn on what kind of business decisions Sony, Microsoft or any company makes. They only look for themselves! I also don't like to look back into history what happend back then in former console transitions because with the Switch a completely new era started for Nintendo. Therefore, there's little value in interpreting the past and trying to make a conclusion for the current situation. 

But even if we look into Nintendo's past console transitions, it was only 2x where they killed off a previous generation: 1. The GBA (Nintendo went into panic mode because of the upcoming release of the PSP, so they killed the GBA off and released the DS early), 2. The DS (because the 3DS wasn't selling well intially and it needed Nintendo's full attention, so they killed the DS off). In hintsight, it probably would have been better to fully support the Wii another year and not release the WiiU before end of 2013. However, I wouldn't say that Nintendo killed off the Wii because back then, of course, Nintendo fully believed in the success of the WiiU. Therefore, resources for game development were naturally taken away from Wii and brought to WiiU. Additionally, the Wii really didn't have that much more life in it. It was a fad console and this fad was gone by 2012.

In FY2026 (ending March 31, 2026), with the Switch 2 newly on the market, the Switch 1 probably will take a hit in sales of about 50% which would still be in the 5 to 5.5 mil range. These are still good numbers and too early to stop manufacturing it. Usually, console production stops when they anticipate that the yearly sales will fall below 1 mil. In that regard, the PS2 was actually killed off when production stopped in January 2013 because for this whole fiscal year (April 1, 2012 to March 31, 2013), as we know, the PS2 shipped a mathematical minimum of 3.5 mil (some believe it must have shipped 4.1 mil as in Sony's financial report they didn't mention that the PS2 sales where down compared to last FY). These were still good numbers, too early to actually stop productions. However, Sony didn't have a choice as the PS3 was coming up and they still produced the PSP and PS Vita was still kinda new. There simply was no production capacity anymore for the PS2.

Nintendo on the other hand will not face production capacity issues as they will have to support only two consoles: Switch 2 and Switch 1. And even if the Switch 1 will have a short life post-Switch 2 release, it certainly will be produced for a minimum of 2 years after the Switch 2 has launched, shorter than that is just not realistic.

Pricing for Switch 1 will be interesting. If the Switch 2 releases for $400, I'm sure the OLED model will not keep the $350 price tag. Nintendo will lower the price. I don't think the OG Switch will be faded out immediately, so when the OLED goes down in price, the OG has to go down as well and so will the Switch Lite. I and others said it several times: People who will buy the Switch 1 in 2024 and beyond are price sensitive people. They will anyway not buy a Switch 2 early in its lifecycle. In other words: The post-Switch 2 sales of Switch 1 will not hurt the sales of the Switch 2 in any way!

I'm quite opptimistic (and in fact realistic) that the Switch will beat the PS2.

If Xbox S2 launches in 2026, then it is highly likely PS6 will also launch that year. Either way, NS2 won't feel as exciting for the casuals when those two launch. NS1 had 2.5-3 years of being the newest major console on the market before competition released XS and PS5.

I just think Nintendo is crippling their long term sales potential of NS2 hardware by not releasing it this year. I'd be happy to eat my words by 2031 if it happens. 

You still can buy a new PS4 Slim (and a PS4 Pro at least here in Europe and I guess in NA too). Sony just refused to give them price cuts. Anyway, Nintendo doesn't give a damn on what kind of business decisions Sony, Microsoft or any company makes. They only look for themselves! I also don't like to look back into history what happend back then in former console transitions because with the Switch a completely new era started for Nintendo. Therefore, there's little value in interpreting the past and trying to make a conclusion for the current situation. 

But even if we look into Nintendo's past console transitions, it was only 2x where they killed off a previous generation: 1. The GBA (Nintendo went into panic mode because of the upcoming release of the PSP, so they killed the GBA off and released the DS early), 2. The DS (because the 3DS wasn't selling well intially and it needed Nintendo's full attention, so they killed the DS off). In hintsight, it probably would have been better to fully support the Wii another year and not release the WiiU before end of 2013. However, I wouldn't say that Nintendo killed off the Wii because back then, of course, Nintendo fully believed in the success of the WiiU. Therefore, resources for game development were naturally taken away from Wii and brought to WiiU. Additionally, the Wii really didn't have that much more life in it. It was a fad console and this fad was gone by 2012. I don't see a scenario where Nintendo has to kill off the Switch 1. The worst case scenario is if the Switch 2 doesn't sell well and it will need Nintendo's full attention. But even then, they can't afford to kill off the Switch 1 because should the Switch 2 struggling they have only the Switch 1 left to fall back on (any other business like revenue/royalities from smartphone games, movies, theme parks, amiibos and merchandise are still just niche income compared to their dedicated hard- and software business).

In FY2026 (ending March 31, 2026), with the Switch 2 newly on the market, the Switch 1 probably will take a hit in sales of about 50% which would still be in the 5 to 5.5 mil range. These are still good numbers and too early to stop manufacturing. Usually, console production stops when they anticipate that the yearly sales will fall below 1 mil. In that regard, the PS2 was actually killed off when production stopped in January 2013 because for this whole fiscal year (April 1, 2012 to March 31, 2013), as we know, the PS2 shipped a mathematical minimum of 3.5 mil (some believe it must have shipped 4.1 mil as in Sony's financial report they didn't mention that the PS2 sales where down compared to last FY). These were still good numbers, too early to actually stop production. However, Sony didn't have a choice as the PS4 was coming up and they still produced the PS3, PS Vita and PSP. There simply was no production capacity left for the PS2.

Nintendo on the other hand will not face production capacity issues as they will have to support only two consoles: Switch 2 and Switch 1. And even if the Switch 1 will have a short life post-Switch 2 release, it certainly will be produced for a minimum of 2 years after the Switch 2 has launched, shorter than that is just not realistic.

Pricing for Switch 1 will be interesting. If the Switch 2 releases for $400, I'm sure the OLED model will not keep the $350 price tag. Nintendo will lower the price. I don't think the OG Switch will be faded out immediately, so when the OLED goes down in price, the OG has to go down as well and so will the Switch Lite. I and others said it several times: People who will buy the Switch 1 in 2024 and beyond are price sensitive people. They will anyway not buy a Switch 2 early in its lifecycle. In other words: The post-Switch 2 sales of Switch 1 will not hurt the sales of the Switch 2 in any way!

I'm quite opptimistic (and in fact realistic) that the Switch will beat the PS2.

An early launch for the next Xbox would be more like the Mega Drive or the Dreamcast... neither of which really worked in the end.

Yeah if Switch 2 misses this year Nintendo have dropped the ball.