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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Sales Update: Switch at 139.36m shipped

Those thinking it's just a few months delay, I disagree. Nintendo has traditionally released a new generation every 6 years (the average I think was like 5.5 years before the Switch). The Switch didnt explode in sales until around 2020, which means the tech for Switch 2 was already decided at that point (2.5-3.5 years after Switch 1 launch). Every month the Switch is delayed makes the tech inside of it older and therefore less impressive come launch. By the time it comes out, Switch 1 will be 8 years old, which is absolutely insane.

I want Switch 2 to be as impressive as possible and every month it's delayed, let alone 2 years, that becomes less likely. It's not like they could adjust after 2020 or 2021 to beef up the tech on the Switch 2.



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Dulfite said:

Those thinking it's just a few months delay, I disagree. Nintendo has traditionally released a new generation every 6 years (the average I think was like 5.5 years before the Switch). The Switch didnt explode in sales until around 2020, which means the tech for Switch 2 was already decided at that point (2.5-3.5 years after Switch 1 launch). Every month the Switch is delayed makes the tech inside of it older and therefore less impressive come launch. By the time it comes out, Switch 1 will be 8 years old, which is absolutely insane.

I want Switch 2 to be as impressive as possible and every month it's delayed, let alone 2 years, that becomes less likely. It's not like they could adjust after 2020 or 2021 to beef up the tech on the Switch 2.

Regardless of when it releases, it will be a big jump over Switch. Does it really matter if it’s closer to PS4, PS4 Pro, Xbox One X or Xbox Series S? Nintendo games are going to look amazing and 3rd parties are going to be inconsistent regardless of power.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Dulfite said:

Those thinking it's just a few months delay, I disagree. Nintendo has traditionally released a new generation every 6 years (the average I think was like 5.5 years before the Switch). The Switch didnt explode in sales until around 2020, which means the tech for Switch 2 was already decided at that point (2.5-3.5 years after Switch 1 launch). Every month the Switch is delayed makes the tech inside of it older and therefore less impressive come launch. By the time it comes out, Switch 1 will be 8 years old, which is absolutely insane.

I want Switch 2 to be as impressive as possible and every month it's delayed, let alone 2 years, that becomes less likely. It's not like they could adjust after 2020 or 2021 to beef up the tech on the Switch 2.

Regardless of when it releases, it will be a big jump over Switch. Does it really matter if it’s closer to PS4, PS4 Pro, Xbox One X or Xbox Series S? Nintendo games are going to look amazing and 3rd parties are going to be inconsistent regardless of power.

A Switch 2 with the same tech releasing two years prior is a lot more impressive than in 2025.

Also, think about third parties. You could have had them making games for Switch 2 and releasing starting 2023, with the next Xbox/PS coming 2026 or 2027, so that's 3-4 years of ports being easier to make before the PS6/XS2 show up and make porting to the Switch 2 really hard or impossible. Instead, Switch 2 is only going to get 1-2 years on the market before those other consoles come. It's asking a lot more from the third party companies over the long term and it means Switch 2 won't get as much third party AAA quality game support over the lifetime of the console.



Shtinamin_ said:
curl-6 said:

Zippo's been wrong too many times to have any credibility tbh.

That said I wouldn't rule out a B-tier Mario spinoff of some kind; the Wii for instance got Mario Party 9 in its final year. But I don't think that would be enough make up for the lack of any major new releases.

Yeah I know he can be, just wanted to get that out cause that would be cool. Honestly any kind of Mario game would be welcomed.

I fully expect a Pokémon (remake/remaster) this November, that will carry the Switch through the holiday's. Additionally a 3DS Kirby port would be a nice addition.



Tober said:
Shtinamin_ said:

Yeah I know he can be, just wanted to get that out cause that would be cool. Honestly any kind of Mario game would be welcomed.

I fully expect a Pokémon (remake/remaster) this November, that will carry the Switch through the holiday's. Additionally a 3DS Kirby port would be a nice addition. A pink Switch Lite bundle with Planet Robobot would sell well, especially in Japan.

Edit: Sorry somehow double.

Last edited by Tober - on 20 February 2024

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The most important things Nintendo needs to get right for the Switch 2 are 1. actually making it a Switch 2, and 1. ensuring that the system has a steady supply of games ready throughout the first year.

The 2 things that most doomed the Wii U were reinventing the wheel again for no reason with the gamepad, and the wasteland that was the post-launch period. The console died because the 6 months after the launch it barely had any games coming out because Nintendo was struggling with the switch to HD development. Even though it was woefully underpowered compared to the PS4 and XB1, it almost certainly would have been better off waiting a year and launching with Super Mario 3D World, Pikmin 3, and Wind Waker HD and then having a steady stream of great games like DKTF and MK 8 in the first months of 2014. This is the same problem the N64 had and why that system lost all momentum after selling really well at launch and immediately after.

The Switch maintained its momentum because it had a steady stream of releases. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe was not a launch title even though it could have been, instead coming out slightly after launch. This was brilliant and led to the continuous releases like Splatoon 2, Mario+ Rabids, Odessey, and Xenoblade 2 from summer through winter. It never had those months-long periods where nothing was coming out that the Wii U had during the first half of 2013.

If the games are not ready for a steady supply of new releases throughout the first 6 months of the system's life, then they have to wait until the games are ready even if the hardware is ready to go.



Dulfite said:

Those thinking it's just a few months delay, I disagree. Nintendo has traditionally released a new generation every 6 years (the average I think was like 5.5 years before the Switch). The Switch didnt explode in sales until around 2020, which means the tech for Switch 2 was already decided at that point (2.5-3.5 years after Switch 1 launch). Every month the Switch is delayed makes the tech inside of it older and therefore less impressive come launch. By the time it comes out, Switch 1 will be 8 years old, which is absolutely insane.

I want Switch 2 to be as impressive as possible and every month it's delayed, let alone 2 years, that becomes less likely. It's not like they could adjust after 2020 or 2021 to beef up the tech on the Switch 2.

I’m not worried because Nintendo declared that the Switch will push the boundaries of a console life. 8 years is amazing, but I originally thought (when I heard this) will be up for 10 years before the release of a successor.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Tober said:
Shtinamin_ said:

Yeah I know he can be, just wanted to get that out cause that would be cool. Honestly any kind of Mario game would be welcomed.

I fully expect a Pokémon (remake/remaster) this November, that will carry the Switch through the holiday's. Additionally a 3DS Kirby port would be a nice addition.

I can see it being a combo of Gen 2 & Gen 5 in one game for Nintendo. The Pokémon Company says that they have a big surprise for their Pokémon Presents.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Dulfite said:

Those thinking it's just a few months delay, I disagree. Nintendo has traditionally released a new generation every 6 years (the average I think was like 5.5 years before the Switch). The Switch didnt explode in sales until around 2020, which means the tech for Switch 2 was already decided at that point (2.5-3.5 years after Switch 1 launch). Every month the Switch is delayed makes the tech inside of it older and therefore less impressive come launch. By the time it comes out, Switch 1 will be 8 years old, which is absolutely insane.

I want Switch 2 to be as impressive as possible and every month it's delayed, let alone 2 years, that becomes less likely. It's not like they could adjust after 2020 or 2021 to beef up the tech on the Switch 2.

It doesn't work like this. Significant adjustments to a console's chipset can still be made a year before its release. A general example of this is the amount of RAM which has an influence on the quality and variety of textures inside any given level of a game. A more Switch-specific example is how much the chipset needs to be underclocked in portable mode to accomplish sufficient battery life. The Switch itself saw an internal revision in 2019, two years after its launch; looks exactly the same as the 2017 model on the outside, but inside it's ~50% longer battery life because the same chipset was made more efficient than before. There are also new things like DLSS which improve over time, so a 2025 version of it will obviously be more impressive than a 2023 version.

The point is that a hypothetical Switch 2 launched in 2023 wouldn't be the same one as a Switch 2 launched in 2025. The more important question is if you want to play games on it that didn't have their development rushed and if you want such games at a steady release pace.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

We will know next week, but it the big Switch for this holiday quarter will likely be a new Pokémon game. I'm guessing a new Legends or Black/White remake. It seems too soon for a new generation release. Depending on bundles and/or a price cut the Switch will likely end 2024 with around 150 million shipped (+/- 2 million).



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

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