Yep, It should pass the 3M. Japan is the strongest region right now for the Switch. I personally expect it to do 2M next year, even with the successor launching.

Ok so we should be expecting the Switch (at least in Japan) to have ~33% decline.

For Japan that is very reasonable. Though in Americas and Europe I can see ~40-50% decline in units next year.

Numbers have been updated with week 51 from Famitsu.

So far the Switch is averaging 94,654 units sold per week in the month of December. At this pace it will sell 378,615 units in December only reaching a total of 3.13M

In order to reach my prediction of 3.19M, the Switch will need to sell an average of 154k over the next week. Plausible but it will be tough. 

And great job with the 3M prediction XtremeBG, we’ve crossed the barrier!

Don't praise him too much; he was expecting only 2 million at the start of the year, lol.

But I can't throw too much shade since I thought I was being optimistic when I said 2.5-3 million in the same thread and it's already surpassed my upper number.

Keep in mind that the first comparisons I make are not my predictions, I simply has to put something, and the first days or week even I am figuring out what comparison to be the final ones, as I change 2 or 3 times those in each year comparison thread

The comment I made was the following:

This is a post from me from exactly the start of the year - 8th January. So it was almost on point (since the Switch is passing barely 3M). So the fact that I firstly made another ones and then decide to change them, and doing this pretty much every time is not a sign of predicting something, let alone changing a prediction just a few hours or days later. Don't mistake one with the other. Also don't act like even predicting 2M is something bad or unreasonable. Having the history of sales of other consoles in Japan, their drops in sales and the fact that it was expected by pretty much everyone the successor to come out this year, even a 2M prediction would not be so pessimistic or unreasonable, since it's somewhat normal for a console in it's 8th year to drop especially if you know that the successor is releasing in the same year. The fact that sometimes end result is different, does not make the initial prediction bad or unreasonable or pessimistic. It simply means that by some reason the device may exceed the expectations and over perform. Especially JAPAN market, which is the most unpredictable out of all. If you read all the posts on the forum here every year about Japan sales this market will probably be the one where the most number of people got it wrong, when they throw some numbers. And not only Switch, but all other consoles as well.

But yeah, even if you want to go out strictly to the comparisons themselves, the one I did vs the DS'10 was pretty much from beginning there, so if I was predicting 2M there is no point in putting it versus year of DS which is almost 3M. This shows you enough. So @Shtinamin_ is right, although I wouldn't want to praise me, it's not something special, I am looking to be on point everytime, but of course no one can be, and sometimes I end up short or over too, just like everybody here.

@XtremeBG I hate to do this but literally that same day you specifically mention Switch selling 2 million. That post literally stated you expected PS5 to outsell Switch (3 million for PS5 and 2 million for Switch. I have called you out for this before, low balling Switch and then being dishonest about your initial prediction. The poster correctly stated your first prediction was 2 million, are you denying that? We know you moved your prediction up, that's ok but was your initial prediction 2 million or no? Below is what you said.

XtremeBG: I can see the very likely scenario of PS5 doing around 3M and NSW 2M.

Wasn't expecting a full paragraph in response to a mild joke, and I'm not trying to say that prediction is some unforgivable sin, but you literally did predict 2 million.
Here in this thread where I made the 2.5-3 million prediction. https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/247954/famitsu-sales-week-52-amp-53-2023-dec-18-dec-31/1/

Yes, that comment I did. but saying that I can see a very likely scenario isn't a prediction. if so then saying I can't see it doing more than 3M also should be a prediction from your logic, and changing it just hours or day later does not make sense. I remember that before the data for 2024 started to go up I said 2M, and when I saw it doing decently I put the range to 3M, and again at that point in time pretty much everyone including me expected release of Switch 2 in 2024. Therefore knowing successor is releasing even sales as 2M is not so unreasonable or pessimistic, coming from 3.9M the previous year. And this is not excuse as you are always calling it, I am simply saying it's not low ball cuz if you know successor is coming (and if really did in 2024) I guarantee you the sales wouldn't be and can't be 3M or close to it. They would drop to at least 2.5M or 2M. But yea to answer you question, I am not denying that I saw it as likely scenario and I even wrote it somewhere, but putting DS's year comparison at almost 3M for the whole year, since the start, means that I saw it way more likely doing something close to 3M in the end, instead of 2M.

Ooh and about that debate you remember how it ended ? You apologising to me since you haven't seen my comment about adjusting my initial prediction for last year (which I haven't denied) to 4M ? And doing whole full debate out of this just because you didn't wrote your homework ..

Ooooh sorry .. pardon me, I must have lost my sence of humour, since exchanging posts with @Phenomajp13 .

Yep, I remember that, and I remember your comment on that too. I just made a post about it haha.

Well for the new year - 2025, here is it saying it in my thread, I expect to finish in the range of 1.5M to 2M. Hope this not looks pessimistic or lowballing to @Phenomajp13