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psychicscubadiver on 28 December 2024
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XtremeBG said:
psychicscubadiver said:

Don't praise him too much; he was expecting only 2 million at the start of the year, lol.

But I can't throw too much shade since I thought I was being optimistic when I said 2.5-3 million in the same thread and it's already surpassed my upper number.

Keep in mind that the first comparisons I make are not my predictions, I simply has to put something, and the first days or week even I am figuring out what comparison to be the final ones, as I change 2 or 3 times those in each year comparison thread

The comment I made was the following:

XtremeBG said:

If PS underperforms I will of course change it's competitor to weaker one. If Switch is better than it's competitors, I can change it as well. But the chances of Switch making more than 3M this year giving the big declines in Japan lately is not very likely.

This is a post from me from exactly the start of the year - 8th January. So it was almost on point (since the Switch is passing barely 3M). So the fact that I firstly made another ones and then decide to change them, and doing this pretty much every time is not a sign of predicting something, let alone changing a prediction just a few hours or days later. Don't mistake one with the other. Also don't act like even predicting 2M is something bad or unreasonable. Having the history of sales of other consoles in Japan, their drops in sales and the fact that it was expected by pretty much everyone the successor to come out this year, even a 2M prediction would not be so pessimistic or unreasonable, since it's somewhat normal for a console in it's 8th year to drop especially if you know that the successor is releasing in the same year. The fact that sometimes end result is different, does not make the initial prediction bad or unreasonable or pessimistic. It simply means that by some reason the device may exceed the expectations and over perform. Especially JAPAN market, which is the most unpredictable out of all. If you read all the posts on the forum here every year about Japan sales this market will probably be the one where the most number of people got it wrong, when they throw some numbers. And not only Switch, but all other consoles as well.

But yeah, even if you want to go out strictly to the comparisons themselves, the one I did vs the DS'10 was pretty much from beginning there, so if I was predicting 2M there is no point in putting it versus year of DS which is almost 3M. This shows you enough. So @Shtinamin_ is right, although I wouldn't want to praise me, it's not something special, I am looking to be on point everytime, but of course no one can be, and sometimes I end up short or over too, just like everybody here.

Wasn't expecting a full paragraph in response to a mild joke, and I'm not trying to say that prediction is some unforgivable sin, but you literally did predict 2 million.
Here in this thread where I made the 2.5-3 million prediction. https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/247954/famitsu-sales-week-52-amp-53-2023-dec-18-dec-31/1/