At least Dragon Quest was always in development for Switch from the start. Albeit it faced development difficulties. So maybe they're not too keen on going through that again, unless Switch 2 makes it notably easier to put multi plats on it.
Which I expect it will (if anything because of DLSS), but the question is to what degree.

Games like Resident Evil, Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Nier, Persona, Yakuza, etc, can be questionmarks depending on how the next Switch turns out.
Most games for PS5 are still developed for PS4 as well, but I imagine that will be uncommon within the next year or two.

Here is a chart (assuming PS5 will be around 5M by 1st January). PS5 is still very far from the Wii lifetime sales .. It has a lot of work to do.

I would say close numbers for Japan.

It has a lot of work to do, but let's see how long will this gen will last.

Wii had a strong start, but it declined really bad after some years. If PS5 stays longer than usual, it can catch up.

The data is great: The conclusion is optimistic. Once Switch successor hits the market, PlayStation will hit a hard wall in terms of Japanese sales figures. For that, I believe your 2024/2025/2026/… estimates need be lowered 0.5-1.0mil. Furthermore, once PS6 drops, PS5 sales figures will fall off a cliff: 2029/2030/2031/2032/2033 need be adjusted with a “max sales ceiling” of 0.4mil for any one of those years. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to see PS5 have legs lasting into its successors lifecycle…but something would need to go wrong with the PS6 in order for this to happen (eg PS6 is overpriced like the PS3, there need be a supply shock similar to with the PS5, etc).

In all, I think your estimate would more appropriately be knocked down to around 7-8mil sales remaining in Japan, which really leaves the initial question unanswered as to whether PS5 could surpass the Wii in Japan.

I agree with both of your statements. What the PS5 will sell in Japan, have to be now till the Switch successor launches there, cuz it will eat big chunk of those PS5 sales. Just like I said before (when the PS5/XBSX launched and had stock issues) the console sales overlap when there is competition. Sure Switch isn't directly competitor to PS or Xbox, but still it has taken some of their sales when they haven't been available freely everywhere. The same of course goes for the opposite. PS5/Xbox too eat up some of the potential Switch sales. If there were no PS/Xbox Switch would have break 150M by now. And the opposite, if there were no Switch PS4 decline would be steeper and would've sold more units. PS5, Xbox too. In Japan xbox is not factor, but the PS5 surely has taken some of the Switch sales and vice versa. Worldwide of course PS5 will fall of a cliff once PS6 launches, so better be selling now when it's the major Sony's console. But there is still much time. It has around 5 years more where it's the main focus for both Sony, and customers.

I disagree. The year Switch released was PlayStation 4's strongest year in Japan. Nintendo and Sony consoles do not harm each others sales substantially even in Japan.

I think they mean going forward.  Historically, the launch of a new system has never impacted the sales of the current lead console for that year (feels weird calling PS5 Japan's "lead" console).  But I expect 2025 to see a significant drop for the PS5 in Japan, with sales nosediving thereafter.

One thing clear that wasn't taken into account when the new gen started is that the PS5 in Japan would see a good portion of it's sales coming from exportation to China notoriously, because the current software market in Japan hasn't shown thus far an increase in PS ownership there and followed moreso the descending trend we saw from the PS4 going forward.

If next year has to be ever has strong as the last one it'll depend on a few things:

- Core titles that interests the Japanese crowd like DQ, Monster Hunter and whatever they'll feel like adopting cuz there hasn't been any huge PS5 selling title on the PS5 thus far.

- The export market situation. It has to remain has strong as it ever was and that'll prolly depend on the strength of the Yen in the upcoming year.

-The stock situation. PS5 had a stock problem since it's release and has finally managed to quench the thirst it has build for over 3 years. Meeting such a big immediate demand could mean the next year won't see the big upwards of sales we had last year since the demand will be regularly met.

I think it can, but will be very hard to achieve it.