Shtinamin_ said:
Lets take a look at past PS consoles to get an idea how well PS is received in Japan.
PS5 is at 4.75M.
PS4 sold at 9.66M
PS3 sold at 10.47M.
PS2 sold at 23.18M.
PS1 sold at 21.59M.
Now I want to look at the percentage of each (comes from # sold in Japan/# sold worldwide).
PS5: 9.71%
PS4: 8.24%
PS3: 11.98%
PS2: 14.61%
PS1: 21.06%
Since Sony's direction to apply Western ideals, they have lost the appeal of their home country. The PS5 is in it's 4th year of selling, and the PS6 is rumor for 2027 (could be pushed to 2028). PS5 has about (Im gonna go with the later year for a basis of the maximum) 5 years. This year so far the PS5 has sold ~2.3M. If we assume PS5 will sell at least this well for the next 4 years thats an increase of 9.2M. But the PS5 won't be able to do forever, there is always a peak year and slowly decreases in sales. Let's say in in 2 years is the peak, and after it's peak year it sells -10% to 20% (based on Switch after peak years) compared to the year before. And PS4 is still selling, and probably will for another year, so lets say PS5 will sell 5 years into PS6 life. But once PS6 releases the drop will be -20% to -30% of a drop (maybe more).
I think the PS5 worldwide will sell 124M
Ok, so we have an idea. Loose idea, but an idea.
PS5 is at 4.75M + 2.3M (2024) + 2.3M (2025) + 2.07M (2026) + 1.86M (2027) + 1.49M (2028 PS6 releases) + 1.19M (2029) + 0.95M (2030) + 0.76M (2031) + 0.61M (2032) + 0.49M (2033 sold out) = 18.77M
18.77/124 = 15.13%
18.77M will be it's maximum if all goes well. If PS5 has already reached it's peak then it will reach 13.01M. 10.49%
Yes, PS5 will surpass the Wii (12.77M) just barely but it will. Do I want it to no, but I'm trying to be realistic.
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The data is great: The conclusion is optimistic. Once Switch successor hits the market, PlayStation will hit a hard wall in terms of Japanese sales figures. For that, I believe your 2024/2025/2026/… estimates need be lowered 0.5-1.0mil. Furthermore, once PS6 drops, PS5 sales figures will fall off a cliff: 2029/2030/2031/2032/2033 need be adjusted with a “max sales ceiling” of 0.4mil for any one of those years. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to see PS5 have legs lasting into its successors lifecycle…but something would need to go wrong with the PS6 in order for this to happen (eg PS6 is overpriced like the PS3, there need be a supply shock similar to with the PS5, etc).
In all, I think your estimate would more appropriately be knocked down to around 7-8mil sales remaining in Japan, which really leaves the initial question unanswered as to whether PS5 could surpass the Wii in Japan.
Last edited by firebush03 - on 19 December 2023
