Could the PS5 surpass Nintendo Wii sales in Japan?

[XtremeBG]

firebush03 said:

The data is great: The conclusion is optimistic. Once Switch successor hits the market, PlayStation will hit a hard wall in terms of Japanese sales figures. For that, I believe your 2024/2025/2026/… estimates need be lowered 0.5-1.0mil. Furthermore, once PS6 drops, PS5 sales figures will fall off a cliff: 2029/2030/2031/2032/2033 need be adjusted with a “max sales ceiling” of 0.4mil for any one of those years. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to see PS5 have legs lasting into its successors lifecycle…but something would need to go wrong with the PS6 in order for this to happen (eg PS6 is overpriced like the PS3, there need be a supply shock similar to with the PS5, etc).

In all, I think your estimate would more appropriately be knocked down to around 7-8mil sales remaining in Japan, which really leaves the initial question unanswered as to whether PS5 could surpass the Wii in Japan.

I agree with both of your statements. What the PS5 will sell in Japan, have to be now till the Switch successor launches there, cuz it will eat big chunk of those PS5 sales. Just like I said before (when the PS5/XBSX launched and had stock issues) the console sales overlap when there is competition. Sure Switch isn't directly competitor to PS or Xbox, but still it has taken some of their sales when they haven't been available freely everywhere. The same of course goes for the opposite. PS5/Xbox too eat up some of the potential Switch sales. If there were no PS/Xbox Switch would have break 150M by now. And the opposite, if there were no Switch PS4 decline would be steeper and would've sold more units. PS5, Xbox too. In Japan xbox is not factor, but the PS5 surely has taken some of the Switch sales and vice versa. Worldwide of course PS5 will fall of a cliff once PS6 launches, so better be selling now when it's the major Sony's console. But there is still much time. It has around 5 years more where it's the main focus for both Sony, and customers.