Looks like the holiday decline for the Switch will be easily the biggest yet. It might not have any weeks above 150k or hell maybe even none above 140k this year. And the PS5 is now past the halfway mark of the PS4's LTD in only three years so is definitely gonna blow past most predictions for it from back in 2020-2022.

The holiday period in Japan really starts in December, and doesn't really start with a bang like in US as they don't have the whole black Friday thing.

Typically hardware sales are more effected by big game releases though, which is why it looks odd comparing this year to the last two as in both 2021 & 2022 there was a Pokemon release on Switch for week 47.
I have not checked what games were released in 2020 but that was an odd year anyway with supply issues.
2019 sales were probably still fluctuating due to the Switch lite, though I suspect there may also have been a game/special edition release on week 44 or 46
2018 again I haven't checked but I would guess was a major game release on week 46.


The effect of Mario Wonder release on hardware sales was dissapointing considering what seemed to happen around TotK, but in the past the usual reason Switch sales had risen before week 48 was due to a game release. Given the age of the Switch last weeks SM:RPG & Momotaro were not major enough to have the ame effect.


For the last 5 weeks I would be surprised if Switch sells less than 600k as that would be more than 20% decline from the equivalent 5 weeks of the previous year (ending wk1 of 2023)... it's currently ~13% down YOY

You may be right.  However, it seems strange that a Mario movie would affect hardware sales so much more than an actual Mario game.

Could be a case of the people buying Switch in Spring/Summer because of Mario Movie are the same people who would have bought a Switch this fall for Mario Wonder

The Exchange rate bump might be over, we'll see how things get next week's sales, but the holidays started this week.

Quiet week.
Momotaro holding the top spot against not one but two Mario games is notable, and the legs on Pikmin continue to impress.

No surprise really. After last year, I wasn't expecting much from holidays. The only reason why 2023 was doing somewhat decent for the Switch standard was due to the Zelda and Mario movie effect. In general, the Switch is definitely running out of steam. Japan is doing better than overseas too I'm pretty sure. Nintendo should announce the Switch 2 before it's too late, I'm expecting early 2024 announcement and late 2024 release. It just makes the most sense looking at upcoming releases being mostly remakes/remasters and the recent Level 5 showcase hinting towards it. Perhaps we can expect the next Monster Hunter to release with it?

This is why I sometimes gave (for some pessimistic or low ball predictions) about the Switch. Cuz when you are successful and when you are obviously past your peak there's always come a point when you just stop and can't deliver anymore.. and it is becomes obvious as the difference becomes bigger. Just the Switch had a little bit longer legs of strong sales after it's peak than some consoles. Now has come to the point where the Wii was in 2010/2011, DS was in 2011/2012, PS4 in 2019/2020, the point where the end has begun and the end is near. The point where the decline in sales becomes more obvious with every following month and where the system under performers (for the level it had previous years), where sales quickly (in a period of year let's say) transition from very strong (the years before), to medium level (which will probably be 2024) to then just low before death comes and takes the last juice out from the system (the years after 2024). This point was why I predicted it won't outsell PS2 and DS, and why I predicted earlier lifetime sales of 135-140M (I predicted it would come maybe a year earlier) instead of now maybe range to 150M. Now the only thing that can change this fate is Nintendo coming out and discounting the Switch (all models) by at least 100$. Then I can see a decent hold up in the decrease of the sales. As I said for 2024 (with or without Switch 2 announcement next year) I expect sales to start with 180k weekly falling down to 100k weekly worldwide by the end of the year (before holidays). As for Japan I think not more than 3M for 2024 (even that can become unreachable depending on how big this decrease will be and how much the system has saturated) For reference let's see DS 2010 to 2011 there. From 2.9M to just 600k for 2011. If we have even half of this decline we can see Switch at 2M the most next year in JAPAN. Only time will tell.

Switch is definitely on it's way out but this has been an impressive late year. I think this time last year I was predicting around 3.5m for this year, though I was also expecting they would have announced (but not released) a successor by now.

I think Nintendo has pushed it as long as they can, I agree I don't think it will manage 3m next year even if there is still no successor.

Considering there still hasn't been an announcement Nintendo may be holding out for the next FY, in which case announcement in April/May & release for the holidays. Japan will drop Switch as soon as the successor releases so ~2m seems reasonable (DS drop was huge because you are comparing calendar years & the 3DS released in March)
Still, with a trickle of 2025 sales it's going to finish with a lifetime total at least 34m for Japan, which is crazy.

It’s because Mario Wonder isn’t that good. 🤐. The wonder flower gimmick is overused and overrated.