This will definitely be the last year the Switch sells 4+ million in a year. Next year I think it will do 2-2.5 million depending when Nintendo launches their next system and if they finally drop the price of the Switch. I also see Nintendo doing cross gen games for at least a year which will help sales.

If Nintendo's next system gets most if not all Japanese 3rd Party games the PS5 sales will dip hard, and if that's the case it will sell less than the PS4 (also the fact PC gaming is growing in Japan).

Can it get to 4 million, though? It needs consistent ~ 100k weeks until year's end and it's down more than 50% on the other holiday seasons. Guess we'll be finding out soon.

YoY drops next year should be huge barring some hardware revision or large price drop.

It will. It has 5 weeks left and sales will increase in December so it should end at 4.1-4.2m.

I know they will, it's just that the drop-off from the previous years is huge.

However, I see now that there will be 53 'weeks' on Famitsu this year instead of 52 as I thought before, so yeah, that makes it a lot easier.

A part of that drop-off is no huge November game like Pokemon this time so the YoY declines won't be as extreme for December. Should still be easily the worst December for it yet though.