| XtremeBG said: This is why I sometimes gave (for some pessimistic or low ball predictions) about the Switch. Cuz when you are successful and when you are obviously past your peak there's always come a point when you just stop and can't deliver anymore.. and it is becomes obvious as the difference becomes bigger. Just the Switch had a little bit longer legs of strong sales after it's peak than some consoles. Now has come to the point where the Wii was in 2010/2011, DS was in 2011/2012, PS4 in 2019/2020, the point where the end has begun and the end is near. The point where the decline in sales becomes more obvious with every following month and where the system under performers (for the level it had previous years), where sales quickly (in a period of year let's say) transition from very strong (the years before), to medium level (which will probably be 2024) to then just low before dead comes and takes the last juice out from the system (the years after 2024). This point was why I predicted it won't outsell PS2 and DS, and why I predicted earlier lifetime sales of 135-140M (I predicted it would come maybe a year earlier) instead of now maybe range to 150M. Now the only thing that can change this fate is Nintendo coming out and discounting the Switch (all models) by at least 100$. Then I can see a decent hold up in the decrease of the sales. As I said for 2024 (with or without Switch 2 announcement next year) I expect sales to start with 180k weekly falling down to 100k weekly worldwide by the end of the year (before holidays). As for Japan I think not more than 3M for 2024 (even that can become unreachable depending on how big this decrease will be and how much the system has saturated) For reference let's see DS 2010 to 2011 there. From 2.9M to just 600k for 2011. If we have even half of this decline we can see Switch at 2M the most next year in JAPAN. Only time will tell. |
Switch is definitely on it's way out but this has been an impressive late year. I think this time last year I was predicting around 3.5m for this year, though I was also expecting they would have announced (but not released) a successor by now.
I think Nintendo has pushed it as long as they can, I agree I don't think it will manage 3m next year even if there is still no successor.
Considering there still hasn't been an announcement Nintendo may be holding out for the next FY, in which case announcement in April/May & release for the holidays. Japan will drop Switch as soon as the successor releases so ~2m seems reasonable (DS drop was huge because you are comparing calendar years & the 3DS released in March)
Still, with a trickle of 2025 sales it's going to finish with a lifetime total at least 34m for Japan, which is crazy.
